Search Results
Performance of seasonal forecasts for the flowering and veraison of two major Portuguese grapevine varieties
Seasonal phenology forecasts are becoming increasingly demanded by winegrowers and viticulturists. Forecast performance needs to be investigated over space and time before practical applications. We assess seasonal forecast performance (skill, probability and accuracy) in predicting flowering and veraison stages of two representative varieties in Portugal over 1993–2017. The state-of-the-art forecast system ECMWF-SEAS5 provides 7-month seasonal forecasts and is coupled with a locally adapted phenology model. Overall, findings illustrate the dependence of forecast performance on initialization timings, regions and predicting subjects (stages and varieties). Forecast performance improves by delaying the initialization timing and only forecasts initialized on April 1st show better skills than climatology on predicting phenology terciles (early/normal/late). The considerable bias of daily values of seasonal climate predictions can represent the main barrier to accurate forecasts. Better prediction performance is consistently found in Central-Southern regions compared to Northern regions, attributing to an earlier phenology occurrence with a shorter forecast length. Comparable predictive skills between flowering and veraison for both varieties imply better predictability in summer. Consequently, promising seasonal phenology predictions are foreseen in Central-Southern wine regions using forecasts initialized on April 1st with approximately 1–2/3–4 months lead time for flowering/veraison: potential prediction errors are ∼2 weeks, along with an overall moderate forecast skill on categorical events. However, considerable inter-annual variability of forecast performance over the same classified phenology years reflects the substantial influence of climate variability. This may represent the main challenge for reliable forecasts in Mediterranean regions. Recommendations are suggested for methodological innovations and practical applications towards reliable regional phenology forecasts.
Loess landscapes of Europe – Mapping, geomorphology, and zonal differentiation
Paleoenvironmental reconstructions on a (supra-)regional scale have gained attention in Quaternary sciences during the last decades. In terrestrial realms, loess deposits and especially intercalations of loess and buried soils, so called loess-paleosol sequences (LPS) are important archives to unravel the terrestrial response to e.g. climatic fluctuations and reconstruct paleoenvironments during the Pleistocene. The analysis of LPS requires the knowledge of several key factors, such as the distribution of the aeolian sediments, their location relative to (potential) source areas, the climate conditions that led to their emplacement and the topography of the sink area. These factors strongly influence the sedimentological and paleoenvironmental characteristics of LPS and show broad variations throughout Europe, leading to a distinct distribution pattern throughout the continent. We present a new map of the distribution of aeolian sediments (mainly loess) and major potential source areas for Europe. The map was compiled combining geodata of different mapping approaches. Most of the used geodata stems from accurate national maps of 27 different countries. Problematic aspects such as different nomenclatures across administrative borders were carefully investigated and revised. The result is a seamless map, which comprises pedological, geological, and geomorphological data and can be used for paleoenvironmental and archeological studies and other applications. We use the resulting map and data from key geomorphological cross-sections to discuss the various influences of geomorphology and paleoenvironment on the deposition and preservation of Late Pleistocene loess throughout Europe. We divided the loess areas into 6 main loess domains and 17 subdomains to understand and explain the factors controlling their distribution and characteristics. For the subdivision we used the following criteria: (1) influence of silt production areas, (2) affiliation to subcatchments, as rivers are very important regional silt transport agents, (3) occurrence of past periglacial activity with characteristic overprinting of the deposits. Additionally, the sediment distribution is combined with elevation data, to investigate the loess distribution statistically as well as visually. Throughout Europe, the variations, and differences of the loess domains are the results of a complex interplay of changing paleoenvironmental conditions and related geomorphologic processes, controlling dust sources, transport, accumulation, preservation, pedogenesis, alongside erosional and reworking events. Climatic, paleoclimatic, and pedoclimatic gradients are on the continental scale an additional important factor, since there are e.g. latitudinal differences of permafrost and periglacial processes, an increase in continentality from west to east and in aridity from northwest to southeast and south, strongly affecting regional sedimentary and geomorphic dynamics. We propose three main depositional regimes for loess formation in Europe: (1.) periglacial and tundra loess formation with periglacial processes and permafrost in the high latitude and mountainous regions; (2.) steppe and desert margin loess formation in the (semi-)arid regions; and (3.) loess and soil formation in temperate and subtropical regions. Loess deposits of (1.) and (2.) show coarser, sandier particle distributions towards the glacial and desert regions. In the humid areas (3.) forest vegetation limited dust production and accumulation, therefore, there is an increase in finer grain sizes due to an increase in weathering.
Climate change impact on regional floods in the Carpathian region
Study region: Tisza and Prut catchments, originating on the slopes of the Carpathian mountains. Study focus: The study reported here investigates (i) climate change impacts on flood risk in the region, and (ii) uncertainty related to hydrological modelling, downscaling techniques and climate projections. The climate projections used in the study were derived from five GCMs, downscaled either dynamically with RCMs or with the statistical downscaling model XDS. The resulting climate change scenarios were applied to drive the eco-hydrological model SWIM, which was calibrated and validated for the catchments in advance using observed climate and hydrological data. The changes in the 30-year flood hazards and 98 and 95 percentiles of discharge were evaluated for the far future period (2071–2100) in comparison with the reference period (1981–2010). New hydrological insights for the region: The majority of model outputs under RCP 4.5 show a small to strong increase of the 30-year flood level in the Tisza ranging from 4.5% to 62%, and moderate increase in the Prut ranging from 11% to 22%. The impact results under RCP 8.5 are more uncertain with changes in both directions due to high uncertainties in GCM-RCM climate projections, downscaling methods and the low density of available climate stations. © 2019 The Authors
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
In the future, the land system will be facing new intersecting challenges. While food demand, especially for resource-intensive livestock based commodities, is expected to increase, the terrestrial system has large potentials for climate change mitigation through improved agricultural management, providing biomass for bioenergy, and conserving or even enhancing carbon stocks of ecosystems. However, uncertainties in future socio-economic land use drivers may result in very different land-use dynamics and consequences for land-based ecosystem services. This is the first study with a systematic interpretation of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) in terms of possible land-use changes and their consequences for the agricultural system, food provision and prices as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, five alternative Integrated Assessment Models with distinctive land-use modules have been used for the translation of the SSP narratives into quantitative projections. The model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures with global agricultural land of 4900 mio ha in 2005 decreasing by 743 mio ha until 2100 at the lower (SSP1) and increasing by 1080 mio ha (SSP3) at the upper end. Greenhouse gas emissions from land use and land use change, as a direct outcome of these diverse land-use dynamics, and agricultural production systems differ strongly across SSPs (e.g. cumulative land use change emissions between 2005 and 2100 range from −54 to 402 Gt CO2). The inclusion of land-based mitigation efforts, particularly those in the most ambitious mitigation scenarios, further broadens the range of potential land futures and can strongly affect greenhouse gas dynamics and food prices. In general, it can be concluded that low demand for agricultural commodities, rapid growth in agricultural productivity and globalized trade, all most pronounced in a SSP1 world, have the potential to enhance the extent of natural ecosystems, lead to lowest greenhouse gas emissions from the land system and decrease food prices over time. The SSP-based land use pathways presented in this paper aim at supporting future climate research and provide the basis for further regional integrated assessments, biodiversity research and climate impact analysis. © 2016 The Authors
A review of coarse mineral dust in the Earth system
Mineral dust particles suspended in the atmosphere span more than three orders of magnitude in diameter, from <0.1 µm to more than 100 µm. This wide size range makes dust a unique aerosol species with the ability to interact with many aspects of the Earth system, including radiation, clouds, hydrology, atmospheric chemistry, and biogeochemistry. This review focuses on coarse and super-coarse dust aerosols, which we respectively define as dust particles with a diameter of 2.5–10 µm and 10–62.5 µm. We review several lines of observational evidence indicating that coarse and super-coarse dust particles are transported farther than previously expected and that the abundance of these particles is substantially underestimated in current global models. We synthesize previous studies that used observations, theories, and model simulations to highlight the impacts of coarse and super-coarse dust aerosols on the Earth system, including their effects on dust-radiation interactions, dust-cloud interactions, atmospheric chemistry, and biogeochemistry. Specifically, coarse and super-coarse dust aerosols produce a net positive direct radiative effect (warming) at the top of the atmosphere and can modify temperature and water vapor profiles, influencing the distribution of clouds and precipitation. In addition, coarse and super-coarse dust aerosols contribute a substantial fraction of ice-nucleating particles, especially at temperatures above –23 °C. They also contribute a substantial fraction to the available reactive surfaces for atmospheric processing and the dust deposition flux that impacts land and ocean biogeochemistry by supplying important nutrients such as iron and phosphorus. Furthermore, we examine several limitations in the representation of coarse and super-coarse dust aerosols in current model simulations and remote-sensing retrievals. Because these limitations substantially contribute to the uncertainties in simulating the abundance and impacts of coarse and super-coarse dust aerosols, we offer some recommendations to facilitate future studies. Overall, we conclude that an accurate representation of coarse and super-coarse properties is critical in understanding the impacts of dust aerosols on the Earth system.
The Cyclostratigraphy Intercomparison Project (CIP): consistency, merits and pitfalls
Cyclostratigraphy is an important tool for understanding astronomical climate forcing and reading geological time in sedimentary sequences, provided that an imprint of insolation variations caused by Earth’s orbital eccentricity, obliquity and/or precession is preserved (Milankovitch forcing). Numerous stratigraphic and paleoclimate studies have applied cyclostratigraphy, but the robustness of the methodology and its dependence on the investigator have not been systematically evaluated. We developed the Cyclostratigraphy Intercomparison Project (CIP) to assess the robustness of cyclostratigraphic methods using an experimental design of three artificial cyclostratigraphic case studies with known input parameters. Each case study is designed to address specific challenges that are relevant to cyclostratigraphy. Case 1 represents an offshore research vessel environment, as only a drill-core photo and the approximate position of a late Miocene stage boundary are available for analysis. In Case 2, the Pleistocene proxy record displays clear nonlinear cyclical patterns and the interpretation is complicated by the presence of a hiatus. Case 3 represents a Late Devonian proxy record with a low signal-to-noise ratio with no specific theoretical astronomical solution available for this age. Each case was analyzed by a test group of 17-20 participants, with varying experience levels, methodological preferences and dedicated analysis time. During the CIP 2018 meeting in Brussels, Belgium, the ensuing analyses and discussion demonstrated that most participants did not arrive at a perfect solution, which may be partly explained by the limited amount of time spent on the exercises (∼4.5 hours per case). However, in all three cases, the median solution of all submitted analyses accurately approached the correct result and several participants obtained the exact correct answers. Interestingly, systematically better performances were obtained for cases that represented the data type and stratigraphic age that were closest to the individual participants’ experience. This experiment demonstrates that cyclostratigraphy is a powerful tool for deciphering time in sedimentary successions and, importantly, that it is a trainable skill. Finally, we emphasize the importance of an integrated stratigraphic approach and provide flexible guidelines on what good practices in cyclostratigraphy should include. Our case studies provide valuable insight into current common practices in cyclostratigraphy, their potential merits and pitfalls. Our work does not provide a quantitative measure of reliability and uncertainty of cyclostratigraphy, but rather constitutes a starting point for further discussions on how to move the maturing field of cyclostratigraphy forward.
Modifications in aerosol physical, optical and radiative properties during heavy aerosol events over Dushanbe, Central Asia
The location of Central Asia, almost at the center of the global dust belt region, makes it susceptible for dust events. The studies on atmospheric impact of dust over the region are very limited despite the large area occupied by the region and its proximity to the mountain regions (Tianshan, Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayas, and Tibetan Plateau). In this study, we analyse and explain the modification in aerosols’ physical, optical and radiative properties during various levels of aerosol loading observed over Central Asia utilizing the data collected during 2010–2018 at the AERONET station in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. Aerosol episodes were classified as strong anthropogenic, strong dust and extreme dust. The mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) during these three types of events was observed a factor of ~3, 3.5 and 6.6, respectively, higher than the mean AOD for the period 2010–2018. The corresponding mean fine-mode fraction was 0.94, 0.20 and 0.16, respectively, clearly indicating the dominance of fine-mode anthropogenic aerosol during the first type of events, whereas coarse-mode dust aerosol dominated during the other two types of events. This was corroborated by the relationships among various aerosol parameters (AOD vs. AE, and EAE vs. AAE, SSA and RRI). The mean aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) at the top of the atmosphere (ARFTOA), the bottom of the atmosphere (ARFBOA), and in the atmosphere (ARFATM) were −35 ± 7, −73 ± 16, and 38 ± 17 Wm−2 during strong anthropogenic events, −48 ± 12, −85 ± 24, and 37 ± 15 Wm−2 during strong dust event, and −68 ± 19, −117 ± 38, and 49 ± 21 Wm−2 during extreme dust events. Increase in aerosol loading enhanced the aerosol-induced atmospheric heating rate to 0.5–1.6 K day−1 (strong anthropogenic events), 0.4–1.9 K day−1 (strong dust events) and 0.8–2.7 K day−1 (extreme dust events). The source regions of air masses to Dushanbe during the onset of such events are also identified. Our study contributes to the understanding of dust and anthropogenic aerosols, in particular the extreme events and their disproportionally high radiative impacts over Central Asia.
OSL-dating of the Pleistocene-Holocene climatic transition in loess from China, Europe and North America, and evidence for accretionary pedogenesis
Loess deposits intercalated by paleosols are detailed terrestrial archives of Quaternary climate variability providing information on the global dust cycle and landscape dynamics. Their paleoclimatic significance is often explored by quantifying their mineral magnetic properties due to their sensitivity to local/regional hydroclimate variability. Detailed chronological assessment of such regional proxy records around the climatic transitions allow a better understanding of how regional records react to major global climatic transitions such as the Pleistocene-Holocene climatic transition. Logs of high-resolution magnetic susceptibility and its frequency dependence were used as paleoclimatic proxies to define the environmental transition from the last glacial loess to the current interglacial soil as reflected in nine loess-paleosol sequences across the northern hemisphere, from the Chinese Loess Plateau, the southeastern European loess belt and the central Great Plains, USA. The onset of increase in magnetic susceptibility above typical loess values was used to assess the onset of, and developments during, the Pleistocene-Holocene climatic transition. High-resolution luminescence dating was applied on multiple grain-sizes (4–11 μm, 63–90 μm, 90–125 μm) of quartz extracts from the same sample in order to investigate the timing of Pleistocene-Holocene climatic transition in the investigated sites. The magnetic susceptibility signal shows a smooth and gradual increase for the majority of the sites from the typical low loess values to the interglacial ones. The initiation of this increase, interpreted as recording the initiation of the Pleistocene-Holocene climatic transition at each site, was dated to 14–17.5 ka or even earlier. Our chronological results highlight the need of combining paleoclimatic proxies (magnetic susceptibility) with absolute dating when investigating the Pleistocene-Holocene climatic transition as reflected by the evolution of this proxy in order to avoid chronostratigraphic misinterpretations in loess-paleosol records caused by simple pattern correlation. The detailed luminescence chronologies evidence the continuity of eolian mineral dust accumulation regardless of glacial or interglacial global climatic regimes. Coupled with magnetic susceptibility records this indicates that dust sedimentation and pedogenesis act simultaneously and result in a non-negligible accretional component in the formation of Holocene soils in loess regions across the Northern Hemisphere. The luminescence ages allowed the modeling of accumulation rates for the Holocene soil which are similar for European, Chinese and U.S.A. loess sites investigated and vary from 2 cm ka−1 to 9 cm ka−1. While accretional pedogenesis has often been implicitly or explicitly assumed in paleoclimatic interpretation of loess-paleosol sequences, especially in the Chinese Loess Plateau, our luminescence data add direct evidence for ongoing sedimentation as interglacial soils formed.
Water resources planning in the Upper Niger River basin: Are there gaps between water demand and supply?
Study region: The Upper Niger and Bani River basins in West Africa. Study focus: The growing demand for food, water, and energy led Mali and Guinea to develop ambitious hydropower and irrigation plans, including the construction of a new dam and the extension of irrigation schemes. These two developments will take place upstream of sensible ecosystem hotspots while the feasibility of development plans in terms of water availability and sustainability is questionable. Where agricultural development in past decades focused mainly on intensifying dry-season crops cultivation, future plans include extension in both the dry and wet seasons. New hydrological insights for the region: Today's irrigation demand corresponds to 7% of the average annual Niger discharge and could account to one third in 2045. An extension of irrigated agriculture is possible in the wet season, while extending dry-season cropping would be largely compromised with the one major existing Sélingué dam. An additional large Fomi or Moussako dam would not completely satisfy dry-season irrigation demands in the 2045 scenario but would reduce the estimated supply gap from 36% to 14%. However, discharge peaks may decrease by 40% reducing the inundated area in the Inner Niger Delta by 21%, while average annual discharge decreases by 30%. Sustainable development should therefore consider investments in water-saving irrigation and management practices to enhance the feasibility of the envisaged irrigation plans instead of completely relying on the construction of a flow regime altering dam. © 2019 The Authors
Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk
Climate-related disasters are among the most societally disruptive impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Their potential impact on the risk of armed conflict is heavily debated in the context of the security implications of climate change. Yet, evidence for such climate-conflict-disaster links remains limited and contested. One reason for this is that existing studies do not triangulate insights from different methods and pay little attention to relevant context factors and especially causal pathways. By combining statistical approaches with systematic evidence from QCA and qualitative case studies in an innovative multi-method research design, we show that climate-related disasters increase the risk of armed conflict onset. This link is highly context-dependent and we find that countries with large populations, political exclusion of ethnic groups, and a low level of human development are particularly vulnerable. For such countries, almost one third of all conflict onsets over the 1980-2016 period have been preceded by a disaster within 7 days. The robustness of the effect is reduced for longer time spans. Case study evidence points to improved opportunity structures for armed groups rather than aggravated grievances as the main mechanism connecting disasters and conflict onset. © 2020 The Authors