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- ItemRearrangement of stresses in fault zones - detecting major issues of coupled hydraulic–mechanical processes with relevance to geothermal applications(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2014) Ziefle, G.The South German Molasse Basin provides favourable conditions for geothermal plants. Nevertheless, micro-seismic events occur in the vicinity of the geothermal Unterhaching Gt2 well and seem to be caused by the geothermal plant. The injection and production are located in an existing fault system. The majority of seismic events takes place at a horizontal distance of 500 m or less of the borehole. However, none of the seismic events are located in the injection reservoir but in fact at a significantly greater depth. A deeper process understanding of the interacting thermal–hydraulic–mechanical effects in the vicinity of the well is desired. This article presents a significantly simplified 2-D model, investigating interactions of the stress field in the vicinity of the geothermal well and movements in the fault system. This might be of special interest, as the operation of the geothermal plant might lead to changes in the material and fracture properties on the one hand and in the equilibrium state on the other. A detailed description of the model, as well as various parameter studies, is presented. It can be seen that boundary conditions such as direction of the stress field in relation to the fault system, geometry of the fault system and parameters of the fractures have a significant influence on stresses in the proximity of the geothermal well. A variation in the spatial stress field in some parts of the fault system is to be expected. For the chosen assumptions the dimension of this variation is about 25% of the assumed stresses. Future work on this model might focus on the characteristics of the fault system, as well as on the influence of the coupled thermal–hydraulic–mechanical effects.
- ItemIncremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2020) Geiges, Andreas; Nauels, Alexander; Yanguas Parra, Paola; Andrijevic, Marina; Hare, William; Pfleiderer, Peter; Schaeffer, Michiel; Schleussner, Carl-FriedrichCurrent global mitigation ambition up to 2030 under the Paris Agreement, reflected in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs), is insufficient to achieve the agreement's 1.5 °C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, the question as to how much collective improvement is achieved is a pivotal one for the credibility of the international climate regime. The recent Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has assessed a wide range of scenarios that achieve the 1.5 °C limit. Those pathways are characterised by a substantial increase in near-term action and total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels about 50 % lower than what is implied by current NDCs. Here we assess the outcomes of different scenarios of NDC updating that fall short of achieving this 1.5 °C benchmark. We find that incremental improvements in reduction targets, even if achieved globally, are insufficient to align collective ambition with the goals of the Paris Agreement. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those median scenarios for extreme temperature, long-term sea-level rise and economic damages for the most vulnerable countries. Under the assumption of maintaining ambition as reflected in current NDCs up to 2100 and beyond, we project a reduction in the gross domestic product (GDP) in tropical countries of around 60 % compared to a no-climate-change scenario and median long-term sea-level rise of close to 2 m in 2300. About half of these impacts can be avoided by limiting warming to 1.5 °C or below. Scenarios of more incremental NDC improvements do not lead to comparable reductions in climate impacts. An increase in aggregated NDC ambition of big emitters by 33 % in 2030 does not reduce presented climate impacts by more than about half compared to limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Our results underscore that a transformational increase in 2030 ambition is required to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. © 2020 SPIE. All rights reserved.
- ItemShear wave reflection seismic yields subsurface dissolution and subrosion patterns: application to the Ghor Al-Haditha sinkhole site, Dead Sea, Jordan(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2018) Polom, Ulrich; Alrshdan, Hussam; Al-Halbouni, Djamil; Holohan, Eoghan P.; Dahm, Torsten; Sawarieh, Ali; Atallah, Mohamad Y.; Krawczyk, Charlotte M.Near-surface geophysical imaging of alluvial fan settings is a challenging task but crucial for understating geological processes in such settings. The alluvial fan of Ghor Al-Haditha at the southeast shore of the Dead Sea is strongly affected by localized subsidence and destructive sinkhole collapses, with a significantly increasing sinkhole formation rate since ca. 1983. A similar increase is observed also on the western shore of the Dead Sea, in correlation with an ongoing decline in the Dead Sea level. Since different structural models of the upper 50 m of the alluvial fan and varying hypothetical sinkhole processes have been suggested for the Ghor Al-Haditha area in the past, this study aimed to clarify the subsurface characteristics responsible for sinkhole development. For this purpose, high-frequency shear wave reflection vibratory seismic surveys were carried out in the Ghor Al-Haditha area along several crossing and parallel profiles with a total length of 1.8 and 2.1 km in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The sedimentary architecture of the alluvial fan at Ghor Al-Haditha is resolved down to a depth of nearly 200 m at a high resolution and is calibrated with the stratigraphic profiles of two boreholes located inside the survey area. The most surprising result of the survey is the absence of evidence of a thick (> 2–10 m) compacted salt layer formerly suggested to lie at ca. 35–40 m depth. Instead, seismic reflection amplitudes and velocities image with good continuity a complex interlocking of alluvial fan deposits and lacustrine sediments of the Dead Sea between 0 and 200 m depth. Furthermore, the underground section of areas affected by sinkholes is characterized by highly scattering wave fields and reduced seismic interval velocities. We propose that the Dead Sea mud layers, which comprise distributed inclusions or lenses of evaporitic chloride, sulfate, and carbonate minerals as well as clay silicates, become increasingly exposed to unsaturated water as the sea level declines and are consequently destabilized and mobilized by both dissolution and physical erosion in the subsurface. This new interpretation of the underlying cause of sinkhole development is supported by surface observations in nearby channel systems. Overall, this study shows that shear wave seismic reflection technique is a promising method for enhanced near-surface imaging in such challenging alluvial fan settings.
- ItemResolving ecological feedbacks on the ocean carbon sink in Earth system models(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2021) Armstrong McKay, David I.; Cornell, Sarah E.; Richardson, Katherine; Rockström, JohanThe Earth's oceans are one of the largest sinks in the Earth system for anthropogenic CO2 emissions, acting as a negative feedback on climate change. Earth system models project that climate change will lead to a weakening ocean carbon uptake rate as warm water holds less dissolved CO2 and as biological productivity declines. However, most Earth system models do not incorporate the impact of warming on bacterial remineralisation and rely on simplified representations of plankton ecology that do not resolve the potential impact of climate change on ecosystem structure or elemental stoichiometry. Here, we use a recently developed extension of the cGEnIE (carbon-centric Grid Enabled Integrated Earth system model), ecoGEnIE, featuring a trait-based scheme for plankton ecology (ECOGEM), and also incorporate cGEnIE's temperature-dependent remineralisation (TDR) scheme. This enables evaluation of the impact of both ecological dynamics and temperature-dependent remineralisation on particulate organic carbon (POC) export in response to climate change. We find that including TDR increases cumulative POC export relative to default runs due to increased nutrient recycling (+∼1.3 %), whereas ECOGEM decreases cumulative POC export by enabling a shift to smaller plankton classes (−∼0.9 %). However, interactions with carbonate chemistry cause opposite sign responses for the carbon sink in both cases: TDR leads to a smaller sink relative to default runs (−∼1.0 %), whereas ECOGEM leads to a larger sink (+∼0.2 %). Combining TDR and ECOGEM results in a net strengthening of POC export (+∼0.1 %) and a net reduction in carbon sink (−∼0.7 %) relative to default. These results illustrate the degree to which ecological dynamics and biodiversity modulate the strength of the biological pump, and demonstrate that Earth system models need to incorporate ecological complexity in order to resolve non-linear climate–biosphere feedbacks.
- ItemClassification and quantification of pore shapes in sandstone reservoir rocks with 3-D X-ray micro-computed tomography(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2016) Schmitt, Mayka; Halisch, Matthias; Müller, Cornelia; Fernandes, Celso PeresRecent years have seen a growing interest in the characterization of the pore morphologies of reservoir rocks and how the spatial organization of pore traits affects the macro behavior of rock–fluid systems. With the availability of 3-D high-resolution imaging, such as x-ray micro-computed tomography (µ-CT), the detailed quantification of particle shapes has been facilitated by progress in computer science. Here, we show how the shapes of irregular rock particles (pores) can be classified and quantified based on binary 3-D images. The methodology requires the measurement of basic 3-D particle descriptors (length, width, and thickness) and a shape classification that involves the similarity of artificial objects, which is based on main pore network detachments and 3-D sample sizes. Two main pore components were identified from the analyzed volumes: pore networks and residual pore ganglia. A watershed algorithm was applied to preserve the pore morphology after separating the main pore networks, which is essential for the pore shape characterization. The results were validated for three sandstones (S1, S2, and S3) from distinct reservoirs, and most of the pore shapes were found to be plate- and cube-like, ranging from 39.49 to 50.94 % and from 58.80 to 45.18 % when the Feret caliper descriptor was investigated in a 10003 voxel volume. Furthermore, this study generalizes a practical way to correlate specific particle shapes, such as rods, blades, cuboids, plates, and cubes to characterize asymmetric particles of any material type with 3-D image analysis.
- ItemThe effect of overshooting 1.5 °C global warming on the mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2018) Rückamp, Martin; Falk, Ulrike; Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Humbert, AngelikaSea-level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Based on the efforts of COP21 to limit global warming to 2.0 ∘C or even 1.5 ∘C by the end of the 21st century (Paris Agreement), we simulate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level change under the low emission Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario. The Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) with higher-order approximation is used and initialized with a hybrid approach of spin-up and data assimilation. For three general circulation models (GCMs: HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC5) the projections are conducted up to 2300 with forcing fields for surface mass balance (SMB) and ice surface temperature (Ts) computed by the surface energy balance model of intermediate complexity (SEMIC). The projected sea-level rise ranges between 21–38 mm by 2100 and 36–85 mm by 2300. According to the three GCMs used, global warming will exceed 1.5 ∘C early in the 21st century. The RCP2.6 peak and decline scenario is therefore manually adjusted in another set of experiments to suppress the 1.5 ∘C overshooting effect. These scenarios show a sea-level contribution that is on average about 38 % and 31 % less by 2100 and 2300, respectively. For some experiments, the rate of mass loss in the 23rd century does not exclude a stable ice sheet in the future. This is due to a spatially integrated SMB that remains positive and reaches values similar to the present day in the latter half of the simulation period. Although the mean SMB is reduced in the warmer climate, a future steady-state ice sheet with lower surface elevation and hence volume might be possible. Our results indicate that uncertainties in the projections stem from the underlying GCM climate data used to calculate the surface mass balance. However, the RCP2.6 scenario will lead to significant changes in the GrIS, including elevation changes of up to 100 m. The sea-level contribution estimated in this study may serve as a lower bound for the RCP2.6 scenario, as the currently observed sea-level rise is not reached in any of the experiments; this is attributed to processes (e.g. ocean forcing) not yet represented by the model, but proven to play a major role in GrIS mass loss.
- ItemFreshwater resources under success and failure of the Paris climate agreement(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2019) Heinke, Jens; Müller, Christoph; Lannerstad, Mats; Gerten, Dieter; Lucht, WolfgangPopulation growth will in many regions increase the pressure on water resources and likely increase the number of people affected by water scarcity. In parallel, global warming causes hydrological changes which will affect freshwater supply for human use in many regions. This study estimates the exposure of future population to severe hydrological changes relevant from a freshwater resource perspective at different levels of global mean temperature rise above pre-industrial level (ΔTglob). The analysis is complemented by an assessment of water scarcity that would occur without additional climate change due to population change alone; this is done to identify the population groups that are faced with particularly high adaptation challenges. The results are analysed in the context of success and failure of implementing the Paris Agreement to evaluate how climate mitigation can reduce the future number of people exposed to severe hydrological change. The results show that without climate mitigation efforts, in the year 2100 about 4.9 billion people in the SSP2 population scenario would more likely than not be exposed to severe hydrological change, and about 2.1 billion of them would be faced with particularly high adaptation challenges due to already prevailing water scarcity. Limiting warming to 2 °C by a successful implementation of the Paris Agreement would strongly reduce these numbers to 615 million and 290 million, respectively. At the regional scale, substantial water-related risks remain at 2 °C, with more than 12% of the population exposed to severe hydrological change and high adaptation challenges in Latin America and the Middle East and north Africa region. Constraining δTglob to 1.5 °C would limit this share to about 5% in these regions. ©2019 Author(s).
- ItemElectric resistivity and seismic refraction tomography: a challenging joint underwater survey at Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2017) Ronczka, Mathias; Hellman, Kristofer; Günther, Thomas; Wisén, Roger; Dahlin, TorleifTunnelling below water passages is a challenging task in terms of planning, pre-investigation and construction. Fracture zones in the underlying bedrock lead to low rock quality and thus reduced stability. For natural reasons, they tend to be more frequent at water passages. Ground investigations that provide information on the subsurface are necessary prior to the construction phase, but these can be logistically difficult. Geophysics can help close the gaps between local point information by producing subsurface images. An approach that combines seismic refraction tomography and electrical resistivity tomography has been tested at the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory (HRL). The aim was to detect fracture zones in a well-known but logistically challenging area from a measuring perspective. The presented surveys cover a water passage along part of a tunnel that connects surface facilities with an underground test laboratory. The tunnel is approximately 100 m below and 20 m east of the survey line and gives evidence for one major and several minor fracture zones. The geological and general test site conditions, e.g. with strong power line noise from the nearby nuclear power plant, are challenging for geophysical measurements. Co-located positions for seismic and ERT sensors and source positions are used on the 450 m underwater section of the 700 m profile. Because of a large transition zone that appeared in the ERT result and the missing coverage of the seismic data, fracture zones at the southern and northern parts of the underwater passage cannot be detected by separated inversion. Synthetic studies show that significant three-dimensional (3-D) artefacts occur in the ERT model that even exceed the positioning errors of underwater electrodes. The model coverage is closely connected to the resolution and can be used to display the model uncertainty by introducing thresholds to fade-out regions of medium and low resolution. A structural coupling cooperative inversion approach is able to image the northern fracture zone successfully. In addition, previously unknown sedimentary deposits with a significantly large thickness are detected in the otherwise unusually well-documented geological environment. The results significantly improve the imaging of some geologic features, which would have been undetected or misinterpreted otherwise, and combines the images by means of cluster analysis into a conceptual subsurface model.
- ItemHigh-resolution shear-wave seismic reflection as a tool to image near-surface subrosion structures – a case study in Bad Frankenhausen, Germany(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2016) Wadas, Sonja H.; Polom, Ulrich; Krawczyk, Charlotte M.Subrosion is the subsurface leaching of soluble rocks that results in the formation of depression and collapse structures. This global phenomenon is a geohazard in urban areas. To study near-surface subrosion structures, four shear-wave seismic reflection profiles, with a total length of ca. 332 m, were carried out around the famous leaning church tower of Bad Frankenhausen in northern Thuringia, Germany, which shows an inclination of 4.93° from the vertical. Most of the geological underground of Thuringia is characterized by soluble Permian deposits, and the Kyffhäuser Southern Margin Fault is assumed to be a main pathway for water to leach the evaporite. The seismic profiles were acquired with the horizontal micro-vibrator ELVIS, developed at Leibniz Institute for Applied Geophysics (LIAG), and a 72 m long landstreamer equipped with 72 horizontal geophones. The high-resolution seismic sections show subrosion-induced structures to a depth of ca. 100 m and reveal five features associated with the leaching of Permian deposits: (1) lateral and vertical varying reflection patterns caused by strongly heterogeneous strata, (2) discontinuous reflectors, small offsets, and faults, which show the underground is heavily fractured, (3) formation of depression structures in the near-surface, (4) diffractions in the unmigrated seismic sections that indicate increased scattering of the seismic waves, and (5) varying seismic velocities and low-velocity zones that are presumably caused by fractures and upward-migrating cavities. A previously undiscovered southward-dipping listric normal fault was also found, to the north of the church. It probably serves as a pathway for water to leach the Permian formations below the church and causes the tilting of the church tower. This case study shows the potential of horizontal shear-wave seismic reflection to image near-surface subrosion structures in an urban environment with a horizontal resolution of less than 1 m in the uppermost 10–15 m.
- ItemLocal stratopause temperature variabilities and their embedding in the global context(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2020) Eixmann, Ronald; Matthias, Vivien; Höffner, Josef; Baumgarten, Gerd; Gerding, MichaelThe stratopause is by definition the transition between the stratosphere and mesosphere. During winter the circulation at mid-latitudes and high latitudes in the stratosphere is mainly driven by quasi-stationary planetary waves (PWs), while the circulation in the mesosphere is mainly driven by gravity waves (GWs). The question arises of whether PWs or GWs dominate the variability of the stratopause. The most famous and dramatic variability of the middle atmosphere is a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) generated by PWs interacting with the polar vortex. A similar phenomenon but smaller in magnitude and more regional is stratopause temperature enhancements (STEs) initially observed by local measurements and generated by breaking PWs. Thus it seems that PWs dominate the variability of the stratopause. In this study we want to quantify to which extent quasi-stationary PWs contribute to the stratopause variability. To do that we combine local lidar observations at Kühlungsborn (54∘ N, 11∘ E) and Andenes (69∘ N, 16∘ E) with global MERRA-2 reanalysis data bringing the local variability of the stratopause into the global context. Therefore we compare the temperature time series at Kühlungsborn and Andenes at 2 hPa, the altitude where STEs maximize, with characteristics (amplitude and phase) of PWs with wave numbers 1, 2 and 3. We found that for Kühlungsborn and Andenes 98 % of the local day-to-day variability of the stratopause can be explained by the variability of PWs with wave number 1, 2 and 3. Thus, the winter stratopause day-to-day variability is highly dominated by the variability of PWs.