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    Orographically induced spontaneous imbalance within the jet causing a large-scale gravity wave event
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geosciences Union, 2021) Geldenhuys, Markus; Preusse, Peter; Krisch, Isabell; Zülicke, Christoph; Ungermann, Jörn; Ern, Manfred; Friedl-Vallon, Felix; Riese, Martin
    To better understand the impact of gravity waves (GWs) on the middle atmosphere in the current and future climate, it is essential to understand their excitation mechanisms and to quantify their basic properties. Here a new process for GW excitation by orography-jet interaction is discussed. In a case study, we identify the source of a GW observed over Greenland on 10 March 2016 during the POLSTRACC (POLar STRAtosphere in a Changing Climate) aircraft campaign. Measurements were taken with the Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) instrument deployed on the High Altitude Long Range (HALO) German research aircraft. The measured infrared limb radiances are converted into a 3D observational temperature field through the use of inverse modelling and limited-angle tomography. We observe GWs along a transect through Greenland where the GW packet covers ≈1/3 of the Greenland mainland. GLORIA observations indicate GWs between 10 and 13km of altitude with a horizontal wavelength of 330km, a vertical wavelength of 2km and a large temperature amplitude of 4.5K. Slanted phase fronts indicate intrinsic propagation against the wind, while the ground-based propagation is with the wind. The GWs are arrested below a critical layer above the tropospheric jet. Compared to its intrinsic horizontal group velocity (25-72ms-1) the GW packet has a slow vertical group velocity of 0.05-0.2ms-1. This causes the GW packet to propagate long distances while spreading over a large area and remaining constrained to a narrow vertical layer. A plausible source is not only orography, but also out-of-balance winds in a jet exit region and wind shear. To identify the GW source, 3D GLORIA observations are combined with a gravity wave ray tracer, ERA5 reanalysis and high-resolution numerical experiments. In a numerical experiment with a smoothed orography, GW activity is quite weak, indicating that the GWs in the realistic orography experiment are due to orography. However, analysis shows that these GWs are not mountain waves. A favourable area for spontaneous GW emission is identified in the jet by the cross-stream ageostrophic wind, which indicates when the flow is out of geostrophic balance. Backwards ray-tracing experiments trace into the jet and regions where the Coriolis and the pressure gradient forces are out of balance. The difference between the full and a smooth-orography experiment is investigated to reveal the missing connection between orography and the out-of-balance jet. We find that this is flow over a broad area of elevated terrain which causes compression of air above Greenland. The orography modifies the wind flow over large horizontal and vertical scales, resulting in out-of-balance geostrophic components. The out-of-balance jet then excites GWs in order to bring the flow back into balance. This is the first observational evidence of GW generation by such an orography-jet mechanism.
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    A simple equation for the melt elevation feedback of ice sheets
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geosciences Union, 2016) Levermann, Anders; Winkelmann, Ricarda
    In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass and has thereby contributed to global sea-level rise. The rate of ice loss is highly relevant for coastal protection worldwide. The ice loss is likely to increase under future warming. Beyond a critical temperature threshold, a meltdown of the Greenland Ice Sheet is induced by the self-enforcing feedback between its lowering surface elevation and its increasing surface mass loss: the more ice that is lost, the lower the ice surface and the warmer the surface air temperature, which fosters further melting and ice loss. The computation of this rate so far relies on complex numerical models which are the appropriate tools for capturing the complexity of the problem. By contrast we aim here at gaining a conceptual understanding by deriving a purposefully simple equation for the self-enforcing feedback which is then used to estimate the melt time for different levels of warming using three observable characteristics of the ice sheet itself and its surroundings. The analysis is purely conceptual in nature. It is missing important processes like ice dynamics for it to be useful for applications to sea-level rise on centennial timescales, but if the volume loss is dominated by the feedback, the resulting logarithmic equation unifies existing numerical simulations and shows that the melt time depends strongly on the level of warming with a critical slowdown near the threshold: the median time to lose 10 % of the present-day ice volume varies between about 3500 years for a temperature level of 0.5 °C above the threshold and 500 years for 5 °C. Unless future observations show a significantly higher melting sensitivity than currently observed, a complete meltdown is unlikely within the next 2000 years without significant ice-dynamical contributions.