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- ItemFuture air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2016) Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Smith, Steven J.; Van Dingenen, Rita; Dentener, Frank; Bouwman, Lex; Riahi, Keywan; Amann, Markus; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Drouet, Laurent; Fricko, Oliver; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gernaat, David; Havlik, Petr; Harmsen, Mathijs; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyes, Chris; Hilaire, Jérôme; Luderer, Gunnar; Masui, Toshihiko; Stehfest, Elke; Strefler, Jessica; van der Sluis, Sietske; Tavoni, MassimoEmissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. The resulting pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. In the SSP3 and SSP4 scenarios, where economic, institutional and technological limitations slow air quality improvements, global pollutant emissions over the 21st century can be comparable to current levels. Pollutant emissions in the SSP1 scenarios fall to low levels due to the assumption of technological advances and successful global action to control emissions.
- ItemExposure and Respiratory Tract Deposition Dose of Equivalent Black Carbon in High Altitudes(Basel, Switzerland : MDPI AG, 2020) Madueño, Leizel; Kecorius, Simonas; Andrade, Marcos; Wiedensohler, AlfredThe traffic microenvironment accounts for a significant fraction of the total daily dose of inhaled air pollutants. The adverse effects of air pollution may be intensified in high altitudes (HA) due to increased minute ventilation (MV), which may result in higher deposition doses compared to that at sea level. Despite this, air quality studies in regions with combined high pollution levels and enhanced inhalation are limited. The main goals of this study are to investigate how the choice of travel mode (walking, microbus, and cable car ride) determines (i) the personal exposure to equivalent black carbon (eBC) and (ii) the corresponding potential respiratory deposited dose (RDD) in HA. For this investigation, we chose La Paz and El Alto in Bolivia as HA representative cities. The highest eBC exposure occurred in microbus commutes (13 μg m-3), while the highest RDD per trip was recorded while walking (6.3 μg) due to increased MV. On the other hand, the lowest eBC exposure and RDD were observed in cable car commute. Compared with similar studies done at sea level, our results revealed that a HA city should reduce exposure by 1.4 to 1.8-fold to achieve similar RDD at sea level, implying that HA cities require doubly aggressive and stringent road emission policies compared to those at sea level. © 2020 by the authors.
- ItemImpact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2020) Smith, Steven J.; Chateau, Jean; Dorheim, Kalyn; Drouet, Laurent; Durand-Lasserve, Olivier; Fricko, Oliver; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Harmsen, Mathijs; Hilaire, Jérôme; Keramidas, Kimon; Klimont, Zbigniew; Luderer, Gunnar; Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Sano, Fuminori; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wada, KenichiThe relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame. © 2020, Battelle Memorial Institute.
- ItemStern's Review and Adam's fallacy(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer, 2008) Jaeger, C.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; Brovkin, V.The Stern Review has played an enormous role in making the world of business aware of the challenge of long-term climate change. In order to make real progress on the basis of this awareness, it is important to pay attention to the difference between human suffering and losses of gross domestic product (GDP). The Review has compared climate change to experiences of suffering like World War I. That war, however, hardly affected global GDP. The long-term damages to be expected from business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions include loss of the coastal cities of the world over the next millennia. This would be an act of unprecedented barbarism, regardless of whether it would slow down economic growth or perhaps even accelerate it. Business leaders worried about climate change need to pay attention to the tensions between ethical and economic concerns. Otherwise, a credibility crisis threatens global climate policy. An important step to establish the credibility needed for effective climate policy will be to gradually move towards a regime where emission permits are auctioned, not handed out as hidden subsidies. The revenues generated by permit auctions should be used to establish a global system of regional climate funds. © 2008 The Author(s).
- ItemAir quality co-benefits of ratcheting up the NDCs(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2020) Rauner, Sebastian; Hilaire, Jérôme; Klein, David; Strefler, Jessica; Luderer, GunnarThe current nationally determined contributions, pledged by the countries under the Paris Agreement, are far from limiting climate change to below 2 ∘C temperature increase by the end of the century. The necessary ratcheting up of climate policy is projected to come with a wide array of additional benefits, in particular a reduction of today’s 4.5 million annual premature deaths due to poor air quality. This paper therefore addresses the question how climate policy and air pollution–related health impacts interplay until 2050 by developing a comprehensive global modeling framework along the cause and effect chain of air pollution–induced social costs. We find that ratcheting up climate policy to a 2 ∘ compliant pathway results in welfare benefits through reduced air pollution that are larger than mitigation costs, even with avoided climate change damages neglected. The regional analysis demonstrates that the 2 ∘C pathway is therefore, from a social cost perspective, a “no-regret option” in the global aggregate, but in particular for China and India due to high air quality benefits, and also for developed regions due to net negative mitigation costs. Energy and resource exporting regions, on the other hand, face higher mitigation cost than benefits. Our analysis further shows that the result of higher health benefits than mitigation costs is robust across various air pollution control scenarios. However, although climate mitigation results in substantial air pollution emission reductions overall, we find significant remaining emissions in the transport and industry sectors even in a 2 ∘C world. We therefore call for further research in how to optimally exploit climate policy and air pollution control, deriving climate change mitigation pathways that maximize co-benefits. © 2020, The Author(s).
- ItemBlack carbon and particulate matter mass concentrations in the Metropolitan District of Caracas, Venezuela: An assessment of temporal variation and contributing sources(Washington, DC : BioOne, 2022) Engelhardt, Vanessa; Pérez, Tibisay; Donoso, Loreto; Müller, Thomas; Wiedensohler, AlfredAtmospheric aerosols play an important role in atmospheric processes and human health. Characterizing atmospheric aerosols and identifying their sources in large cities is relevant to propose site-specific air pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we measured the mass concentration of atmospheric aerosols with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 mm (PM2.5) in the city of Caracas (urban) and in a tropical montane cloud forest (suburban site, located in a mountainous area 11 km far from Caracas) between June 2018 and October 2019. We also measured equivalent black carbon (eBC) mass concentration in PM2.5 in Caracas during the same period. Our goal is to assess PM2.5 and eBC temporal variation and identify their major sources in the area. eBC showed a pronounced diurnal cycle in the urban site, mainly modulated by traffic circulation and the diurnal changes of the mixing layer height. In contrast, PM2.5 showed stable median values during the day with slight variations like that of eBC. In the forest site, PM2.5 values were higher in the afternoons due to the convective transport of aerosols from Caracas and other surrounding urban areas located in adjacent valleys. The annual median for eBC and PM2.5 was 1.6 and 9.2 mg m–3, respectively, in the urban site, while PM2.5 in the forest site was 6.6 mg m–3. To our knowledge, these are the first measurements of this type in the northernmost area of South America. eBC and PM2.5 sources identification during wet and dry seasons was obtained by percentiles of the conditional bivariate probability function (CBPF). CBPF showed seasonal variations of eBC and PM2.5 sources and that their contributions are higher during the dry season. Biomass burning events are a relevant contributing source of aerosols for both sites of measurements inferred by fire pixels from satellite data, the national fire department’s statistics data, and backward trajectories. Our results indicate that biomass burning might affect the atmosphere on a regional scale, contribute to regional warming, and have implications for local and regional air quality and, therefore, human health.