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search.filters.applied.f.access: openAccess × DDC: 550 × Has files: Yes × Subject: machine learning ×

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    The SPectrometer for Ice Nuclei (SPIN): An instrument to investigate ice nucleation
    (München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Garimella, Sarvesh; Kristensen, Thomas Bjerring; Ignatius, Karolina; Welti, Andre; Voigtländer, Jens; Kulkarni, Gourihar R.; Sagan, Frank; Kok, Gregory Lee; Dorsey, James; Nichman, Leonid; Rothenberg, Daniel Alexander; Rösch, Michael; Kirchgäßner, Amélie Catharina Ruth; Ladkin, Russell; Wex, Heike; Wilson, Theodore W.; Ladino, Luis Antonio; Abbatt, Jon P.D.; Stetzer, Olaf; Lohmann, Ulrike; Stratmann, Frank; Cziczo, Daniel James
    The SPectrometer for Ice Nuclei (SPIN) is a commercially available ice nucleating particle (INP) counter manufactured by Droplet Measurement Technologies in Boulder, CO. The SPIN is a continuous flow diffusion chamber with parallel plate geometry based on the Zurich Ice Nucleation Chamber and the Portable Ice Nucleation Chamber. This study presents a standard description for using the SPIN instrument and also highlights methods to analyze measurements in more advanced ways. It characterizes and describes the behavior of the SPIN chamber, reports data from laboratory measurements, and quantifies uncertainties associated with the measurements. Experiments with ammonium sulfate are used to investigate homogeneous freezing of deliquesced haze droplets and droplet breakthrough. Experiments with kaolinite, NX illite, and silver iodide are used to investigate heterogeneous ice nucleation. SPIN nucleation results are compared to those from the literature. A machine learning approach for analyzing depolarization data from the SPIN optical particle counter is also presented (as an advanced use). Overall, we report that the SPIN is able to reproduce previous INP counter measurements.
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    Earth system data cubes unravel global multivariate dynamics
    (Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2020) Mahecha, Miguel D.; Gans, Fabian; Brandt, Gunnar; Christiansen, Rune; Cornell, Sarah E.; Fomferra, Normann; Kraemer, Guido; Peters, Jonas; Bodesheim, Paul; Camps-Valls, Gustau; Donges, Jonathan F.; Dorigo, Wouter; Estupinan-Suarez, Lina M.; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor H.; Gutwin, Martin; Jung, Martin; Londoño, Maria C.; Miralles, Diego G.; Papastefanou, Phillip; Reichstein, Markus
    Understanding Earth system dynamics in light of ongoing human intervention and dependency remains a major scientific challenge. The unprecedented availability of data streams describing different facets of the Earth now offers fundamentally new avenues to address this quest. However, several practical hurdles, especially the lack of data interoperability, limit the joint potential of these data streams. Today, many initiatives within and beyond the Earth system sciences are exploring new approaches to overcome these hurdles and meet the growing interdisciplinary need for data-intensive research; using data cubes is one promising avenue. Here, we introduce the concept of Earth system data cubes and how to operate on them in a formal way. The idea is that treating multiple data dimensions, such as spatial, temporal, variable, frequency, and other grids alike, allows effective application of user-defined functions to co-interpret Earth observations and/or model-data integration. An implementation of this concept combines analysis-ready data cubes with a suitable analytic interface. In three case studies, we demonstrate how the concept and its implementation facilitate the execution of complex workflows for research across multiple variables, and spatial and temporal scales: (1) summary statistics for ecosystem and climate dynamics; (2) intrinsic dimensionality analysis on multiple timescales; and (3) model-data integration. We discuss the emerging perspectives for investigating global interacting and coupled phenomena in observed or simulated data. In particular, we see many emerging perspectives of this approach for interpreting large-scale model ensembles. The latest developments in machine learning, causal inference, and model-data integration can be seamlessly implemented in the proposed framework, supporting rapid progress in data-intensive research across disciplinary boundaries. © 2020 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. All rights reserved.
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    Potential for Early Forecast of Moroccan Wheat Yields Based on Climatic Drivers
    (Hoboken, NJ [u.a.] : Wiley, 2020) Lehmann, J.; Kretschmer, M.; Schauberger, B.; Wechsung, F.
    Wheat production plays an important role in Morocco. Current wheat forecast systems use weather and vegetation data during the crop growing phase, thus limiting the earliest possible release date to early spring. However, Morocco's wheat production is mostly rainfed and thus strongly tied to fluctuations in rainfall, which in turn depend on slowly evolving climate dynamics. This offers a source of predictability at longer time scales. Using physically guided causal discovery algorithms, we extract climate precursors for wheat yield variability from gridded fields of geopotential height and sea surface temperatures which show potential for accurate yield forecasts already in December, with around 50% explained variance in an out-of-sample cross validation. The detected interactions are physically meaningful and consistent with documented ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. Reliable yield forecasts at such long lead times could provide farmers and policy makers with necessary information for early action and strategic adaptation measurements to support food security. ©2020. The Authors.
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    S2S reboot: An argument for greater inclusion of machine learning in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts
    (Malden, MA : Wiley-Blackwell, 2018) Cohen, Judah; Coumou, Dim; Hwang, Jessica; Mackey, Lester; Orenstein, Paulo; Totz, Sonja; Tziperman, Eli
    The discipline of seasonal climate prediction began as an exercise in simple statistical techniques. However, today the large government forecast centers almost exclusively rely on complex fully coupled dynamical forecast systems for their subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictions while statistical techniques are mostly neglected and those techniques still in use have not been updated in decades. In this Opinion Article, we argue that new statistical techniques mostly developed outside the field of climate science, collectively referred to as machine learning, can be adopted by climate forecasters to increase the accuracy of S2S predictions. We present an example of where unsupervised learning demonstrates higher accuracy in a seasonal prediction than the state-of-the-art dynamical systems. We also summarize some relevant machine learning methods that are most applicable to climate prediction. Finally, we show by comparing real-time dynamical model forecasts with observations from winter 2017/2018 that dynamical model forecasts are almost entirely insensitive to polar vortex (PV) variability and the impact on sensible weather. Instead, statistical forecasts more accurately predicted the resultant sensible weather from a mid-winter PV disruption than the dynamical forecasts. The important implication from the poor dynamical forecasts is that if Arctic change influences mid-latitude weather through PV variability, then the ability of dynamical models to demonstrate the existence of such a pathway is compromised. We conclude by suggesting that S2S prediction will be most beneficial to the public by incorporating mixed or a hybrid of dynamical forecasts and updated statistical techniques such as machine learning.