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- ItemEarly Warning of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phase Transition Using Complex Network Analysis(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2021) Lu, Zhenghui; Yuan, Naiming; Yang, Qing; Ma, Zhuguo; Kurths, JürgenObtaining an efficient prediction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase transition is a worldwide challenge. Here, we employed the climate network analysis to uncover early warning signals prior to a PDO phase transition. This way an examination of cooperative behavior in the PDO region revealed an enhanced signal that propagated from the western Pacific to the northwest coast of North America. The detection of this signal corresponds very well to the time when the upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial northwestern tropical Pacific reaches a threshold, in which case a PDO phase transition may be expected with the arising of the next El Ni urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0001o/La Niurn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0002 a event. The objectively detected early warning signal successfully forewarned all the six PDO phase transitions from the 1890–2000, and also underpinned the possible PDO phase transition around 2015, which may be triggered by the strong El Niurn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0003o event in 2015–2016.
- ItemSeasonal predictions initialised by assimilating sea surface temperature observations with the EnKF(Berlin ; Heidelberg : Springer, 2019) Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, François; Keenlyside, Noel; Svendsen, Lea; Gleixner, Stephanie; Kimmritz, Madlen; Dai, Panxi; Gao, YongqiThis study demonstrates that assimilating SST with an advanced data assimilation method yields prediction skill level with the best state-of-the-art systems. We employ the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM)—a fully-coupled forecasting system—to assimilate SST observations with the ensemble Kalman filter. Predictions of NorCPM are compared to predictions from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. The global prediction skill of NorCPM at 6- and 12-month lead times is higher than the averaged skill of the NMME. A new metric is introduced for ranking model skill. According to the metric, NorCPM is one of the most skilful systems among the NMME in predicting SST in most regions. Confronting the skill to a large historical ensemble without assimilation, shows that the skill is largely derived from the initialisation rather than from the external forcing. NorCPM achieves good skill in predicting El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) up to 12 months ahead and achieves skill over land via teleconnections. However, NorCPM has a more pronounced reduction in skill in May than the NMME systems. An analysis of ENSO dynamics indicates that the skill reduction is mainly caused by model deficiencies in representing the thermocline feedback in February and March. We also show that NorCPM has skill in predicting sea ice extent at the Arctic entrance adjacent to the north Atlantic; this skill is highly related to the initialisation of upper ocean heat content. © 2019, The Author(s).
- ItemSeptember 2019 Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Quasi-6-Day Wave Burst and Ionospheric Effects(Hoboken, NJ [u.a.] : Wiley, 2020) Yamazaki, Y.; Matthias, V.; Miyoshi, Y.; Stolle, C.; Siddiqui, T.; Kervalishvili, G.; Laštovička, J.; Kozubek, M.; Ward, W.; Themens, D.R.; Kristoffersen, S.; Alken, P.An exceptionally strong stationary planetary wave with Zonal Wavenumber 1 led to a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Southern Hemisphere in September 2019. Ionospheric data from European Space Agency's Swarm satellite constellation mission show prominent 6-day variations in the dayside low-latitude region at this time, which can be attributed to forcing from the middle atmosphere by the Rossby normal mode “quasi-6-day wave” (Q6DW). Geopotential height measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder aboard National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite reveal a burst of global Q6DW activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the SSW, which is one of the strongest in the record. The Q6DW is apparently generated in the polar stratosphere at 30–40 km, where the atmosphere is unstable due to strong vertical wind shear connected with planetary wave breaking. These results suggest that an Antarctic SSW can lead to ionospheric variability through wave forcing from the middle atmosphere. ©2020. The Authors.
- ItemQuantifying Water Scarcity in Northern China Within the Context of Climatic and Societal Changes and South-to-North Water Diversion(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley-Blackwell, 2020) Yin, Yuanyuan; Wang, Lei; Wang, Zhongjing; Tang, Qiuhong; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Deliang; Xia, Jun; Conradt, Tobias; Liu, Junguo; Wada, Yoshihide; Cai, Ximing; Xie, Zhenghui; Duan, Qingyun; Li, Xiuping; Zhou, Jing; Zhang, JianyunWith the increasing pressure from population growth and economic development, northern China (NC) faces a grand challenge of water scarcity, which can be further exacerbated by climatic and societal changes. The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to mitigate the water scarcity in NC. However, few studies have quantified the impact of the SNWD on water scarcity within the context of climatic and societal changes and its potential effects on economic and agricultural food in the region. We used water supply stress index (WaSSI) to quantify water scarcity within the context of environmental change in NC and developed a method to estimate the economic and agricultural impacts of the SNWD. Focuses were put on alleviating the water supply shortage and economic and agricultural benefits for the water-receiving NC. We find that societal changes, especially economic growth, are the major contributors to water scarcity in NC during 2009–2099. To completely mitigate the water scarcity of NC, at least an additional water supply of 13 billion m3/year (comparable to the annual diversion water by SNWD Central Route) will be necessary. Although SNWD alone cannot provide the full solution to NC's water shortage in next few decades, it can significantly alleviate the water supply stress in NC (particularly Beijing), considerably increasing the agricultural production (more than 115 Tcal/year) and bringing economic benefits (more than 51 billion RMB/year) through supplying industrial and domestic water use. Additionally, the transfer project could have impacts on the ecological environment in the exporting regions. ©2020. The Authors.
- ItemOblique Gravity Wave Propagation During Sudden Stratospheric Warmings(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2020) Stephan, C.C.; Schmidt, H.; Zülicke, C.; Matthias, V.Gravity waves (GWs) are important for coupling the mesosphere to the lower atmosphere during sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Here, a minor SSW is internally generated in a simulation with the upper-atmosphere configuration of the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model. At a horizontal resolution of 20 km the simulation uses no GW drag parameterizations but resolves large fractions of the GW spectrum explicitly, including orographic and nonorographic sources. Consistent with previous studies, the simulated zonal-mean stratospheric warming is accompanied by zonal-mean mesospheric cooling. During the course of the SSW the mesospheric GW momentum flux (GWMF) turns from mainly westward to mainly eastward. Waves of large phase speed (40–80 m s -1) dominate the eastward GWMF during the peak phase of the warming. The GWMF is strongest along the polar night jet axis. Parameterizations of GWs usually assume straight upward propagation, but this assumption is often not satisfied. In the case studied here, a substantial amount of the GWMF is significantly displaced horizontally between the source region and the dissipation region, implying that the local impact of GWs on the mesosphere does not need to be above their local transmission through the stratosphere. The simulation produces significant vertically misaligned anomalies between the stratosphere and mesosphere. Observations by the Microwave Limb Sounder confirm the poleward tilt with height of the polar night jet and horizontal displacements between mesospheric cooling and stratospheric warming patterns. Thus, lateral GW propagation may be required to explain the middle-atmosphere temperature evolution in SSW events with significant zonally asymmetric anomalies. ©2019. The Authors.