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- ItemPotential climate change impacts on the water balance of subcatchments of the River Spree, Germany(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Pohle, I.; Koch, H.; Grünewald, U.Lusatia is considered one of the driest regions of Germany. The climatic water balance is negative even under current climate conditions. Due to global climate change, increased temperatures and a shift of precipitation from summer to winter are expected. Therefore, it is of major interest whether the excess water in winter can be stored and to which extent it is used up on increasing evapotranspiration. Thus, this study focuses on estimating potential climate change impacts on the water balance of two subcatchments of the River Spree using the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM). Climate input was taken from 100 realisations each of two scenarios of the STatistical Analogue Resampling scheme STAR assuming a further temperature increase of 0 K (scenario A) and 2 K by the year 2055 (scenario B) respectively. Resulting from increased temperatures and a shift in precipitation from summer to winter actual evapotranspiration is supposed to increase in winter and early spring, but to decrease in later spring and early summer. This is less pronounced for scenario A than for scenario B. Consequently, also the decrease in discharge and groundwater recharge in late spring is lower for scenario A than for scenario B. The highest differences of runoff generation and groundwater recharge between the two scenarios but also the highest ranges within the scenarios occur in summer and early autumn. It is planned to estimate potential climate change for the catchments of Spree, Schwarze Elster and Lusatian Neisse.
- ItemChemistry of new particle growth in mixed urban and biogenic emissions - Insights from CARES(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Setyan, A.; Song, C.; Merkel, M.; Knighton, W.B.; Onasch, T.B.; Canagaratna, M.R.; Worsnop, D.R.; Wiedensohler, A.; Shilling, J.E.; Zhang, Q.Regional new particle formation and growth events (NPEs) were observed on most days over the Sacramento and western Sierra foothills area of California in June 2010 during the Carbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effect Study (CARES). Simultaneous particle measurements at both the T0 (Sacramento, urban site) and the T1 (Cool, rural site located ~40 km northeast of Sacramento) sites of CARES indicate that the NPEs usually occurred in the morning with the appearance of an ultrafine mode at ~15 nm (in mobility diameter, Dm, measured by a mobility particle size spectrometer operating in the range 10-858 nm) followed by the growth of this modal diameter to ~50 nm in the afternoon. These events were generally associated with southwesterly winds bringing urban plumes from Sacramento to the T1 site. The growth rate was on average higher at T0 (7.1 ± 2.7 nm h−1) than at T1 (6.2 ± 2.5 nm h−1), likely due to stronger anthropogenic influences at T0. Using a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS), we investigated the evolution of the size-resolved chemical composition of new particles at T1. Our results indicate that the growth of new particles was driven primarily by the condensation of oxygenated organic species and, to a lesser extent, ammonium sulfate. New particles appear to be fully neutralized during growth, consistent with high NH3 concentration in the region. Nitrogen-containing organic ions (i.e., CHN+, CH4N+, C2H3N+, and C2H4N+) that are indicative of the presence of alkyl-amine species in submicrometer particles enhanced significantly during the NPE days, suggesting that amines might have played a role in these events. Our results also indicate that the bulk composition of the ultrafine mode organics during NPEs was very similar to that of anthropogenically influenced secondary organic aerosol (SOA) observed in transported urban plumes. In addition, the concentrations of species representative of urban emissions (e.g., black carbon, CO, NOx, and toluene) were significantly higher whereas the photo-oxidation products of biogenic VOCs (volatile organic compounds) and the biogenically influenced SOA also increased moderately during the NPE days compared to the non-event days. These results indicate that the frequently occurring NPEs over the Sacramento and Sierra Nevada regions were mainly driven by urban plumes from Sacramento and the San Francisco Bay Area, and that the interaction of regional biogenic emissions with the urban plumes has enhanced the new particle growth. This finding has important implications for quantifying the climate impacts of NPEs on global scale.
- ItemRegional effects of atmospheric aerosols on temperature: An evaluation of an ensemble of online coupled models(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2017) Baró, Rocío; Palacios-Peña, Laura; Baklanov, Alexander; Balzarini, Alessandra; Brunner, Dominik; Forkel, Renate; Hirtl, Marcus; Honzak, Luka; Pérez, Juan Luis; Pirovano, Guido; San José, Roberto; Schröder, Wolfram; Werhahn, Johannes; Wolke, Ralf; Žabkar, Rahela; Jiménez-Guerrero, PedroThe climate effect of atmospheric aerosols is associated with their influence on the radiative budget of the Earth due to the direct aerosol-radiation interactions (ARIs) and indirect effects, resulting from aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions (ACIs). Online coupled meteorology-chemistry models permit the description of these effects on the basis of simulated atmospheric aerosol concentrations, although there is still some uncertainty associated with the use of these models. Thus, the objective of this work is to assess whether the inclusion of atmospheric aerosol radiative feedbacks of an ensemble of online coupled models improves the simulation results for maximum, mean and minimum temperature at 2m over Europe. The evaluated models outputs originate from EuMetChem COST Action ES1004 simulations for Europe, differing in the inclusion (or omission) of ARI and ACI in the various models. The cases studies cover two important atmospheric aerosol episodes over Europe in the year 2010: (i) a heat wave event and a forest fire episode (July-August 2010) and (ii) a more humid episode including a Saharan desert dust outbreak in October 2010. The simulation results are evaluated against observational data from the E-OBS gridded database. The results indicate that, although there is only a slight improvement in the bias of the simulation results when including the radiative feedbacks, the spatiotemporal variability and correlation coefficients are improved for the cases under study when atmospheric aerosol radiative effects are included.
- ItemEstimating carbon emissions from African wildfires(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2009) Lehsten, V.; Tansey, K.; Balzter, H.; Thonicke, K.; Spessa, A.; Weber, U.; Smith, B.; Arneth, A.We developed a technique for studying seasonal and interannual variation in pyrogenic carbon emissions from Africa using a modelling approach that scales burned area estimates from L3JRC, a map recently generated from remote sensing of burn scars instead of active fires. Carbon fluxes were calculated by the novel fire model SPITFIRE embedded within the dynamic vegetation model framework LPJ-GUESS, using daily climate input. For the time period from 2001 to 2005 an average area of 195.5±24×104 km2 was burned annually, releasing an average of 723±70 Tg C to the atmosphere; these estimates for the biomass burned are within the range of previously published estimates. Despite the fact that the majority of wildfires are ignited by humans, strong relationships between climatic conditions (particularly precipitation), net primary productivity and overall biomass burnt emerged. Our investigation of the relationships between burnt area and carbon emissions and their potential drivers available litter and precipitation revealed uni-modal responses to annual precipitation, with a maximum around 1000 mm for burned area and emissions, or 1200 mm for litter availability. Similar response patterns identified in savannahs worldwide point to precipitation as a chief determinant for short-term variation in fire regime. A considerable variability that cannot be explained by fire-precipitation relationships alone indicates the existence of additional factors that must be taken into account.
- ItemHow the extreme 2019-2020 Australian wildfires affected global circulation and adjustments(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2023) Senf, Fabian; Heinold, Bernd; Kubin, Anne; Müller, Jason; Schrödner, Roland; Tegen, InaWildfires are a significant source of absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere. Extreme fires in particular, such as those during the 2019-2020 Australian wildfire season (Black Summer fires), can have considerable large-scale effects. In this context, the climate impact of extreme wildfires unfolds not only because of the emitted carbon dioxide but also due to smoke aerosol released up to an altitude of 17ĝ€¯km. The overall aerosol effects depend on a variety of factors, such as the amount emitted, the injection height, and the composition of the burned material, and is therefore subject to considerable uncertainty. In the present study, we address the global impact caused by the exceptionally strong and high-reaching smoke emissions from the Australian wildfires using simulations with a global aerosol-climate model. We show that the absorption of solar radiation by the black carbon contained in the emitted smoke led to a shortwave radiative forcing of more than +5ĝ€¯Wm-2 in the southern mid-latitudes of the lower stratosphere. Subsequent adjustment processes in the stratosphere slowed down the diabatically driven meridional circulation, thus redistributing the heating perturbation on a global scale. As a result of these stratospheric adjustments, a positive temperature perturbation developed in both hemispheres, leading to additional longwave radiation emitted back to space. According to the model results, this adjustment occurred in the stratosphere within the first 2 months after the event. At the top of the atmosphere (TOA), the net effective radiative forcing (ERF) averaged over the Southern Hemisphere was initially dominated by the instantaneous positive radiative forcing of about +0.5ĝ€¯Wm-2, for which the positive sign resulted mainly from the presence of clouds above the Southern Ocean. The longwave adjustments led to a compensation of the initially net positive TOA ERF, which is seen in the Southern Hemisphere, the tropics, and the northern mid-latitudes. The simulated changes in the lower stratosphere also affected the upper troposphere through a thermodynamic downward coupling. Subsequently, increased temperatures were also obtained in the upper troposphere, causing a global decrease in relative humidity, cirrus amount, and the ice water path of about 0.2ĝ€¯%. As a result, surface precipitation also decreased by a similar amount, which was accompanied by a weakening of the tropospheric circulation due to the given energetic constraints. In general, it appears that the radiative effects of smoke from single extreme wildfire events can lead to global impacts that affect the interplay of tropospheric and stratospheric budgets in complex ways. This emphasizes that future changes in extreme wildfires need to be included in projections of aerosol radiative forcing.
- ItemFormation of organic aerosol in the Paris region during the MEGAPOLI summer campaign: Evaluation of the volatility-basis-set approach within the CHIMERE model(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2013) Zhang, Q.J.; Beekmann, M.; Drewnick, F.; Freutel, F.; Schneider, J.; Crippa, M.; Prevot, A.S.H.; Baltensperger, U.; Poulain, L.; Wiedensohler, A.; Sciare, J.; Gros, V.; Borbon, A.; Colomb, A.; Michoud, V.; Doussin, J.-F.; Denier Van Der Gon, H.A.C.; Haeffelin, M.; Dupont, J.-C.; Siour, G.; Petetin, H.; Bessagnet, B.; Pandis, S.N.; Hodzic, A.; Sanchez, O.; Honoré, C.; Perrussel, O.Simulations with the chemistry transport model CHIMERE are compared to measurements performed during the MEGAPOLI (Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation) summer campaign in the Greater Paris region in July 2009. The volatility-basis-set approach (VBS) is implemented into this model, taking into account the volatility of primary organic aerosol (POA) and the chemical aging of semi-volatile organic species. Organic aerosol is the main focus and is simulated with three different configurations with a modified treatment of POA volatility and modified secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation schemes. In addition, two types of emission inventories are used as model input in order to test the uncertainty related to the emissions. Predictions of basic meteorological parameters and primary and secondary pollutant concentrations are evaluated, and four pollution regimes are defined according to the air mass origin. Primary pollutants are generally overestimated, while ozone is consistent with observations. Sulfate is generally overestimated, while ammonium and nitrate levels are well simulated with the refined emission data set. As expected, the simulation with non-volatile POA and a single-step SOA formation mechanism largely overestimates POA and underestimates SOA. Simulation of organic aerosol with the VBS approach taking into account the aging of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOC) shows the best correlation with measurements. High-concentration events observed mostly after long-range transport are well reproduced by the model. Depending on the emission inventory used, simulated POA levels are either reasonable or underestimated, while SOA levels tend to be overestimated. Several uncertainties related to the VBS scheme (POA volatility, SOA yields, the aging parameterization), to emission input data, and to simulated OH levels can be responsible for this behavior. Despite these uncertainties, the implementation of the VBS scheme into the CHIMERE model allowed for much more realistic organic aerosol simulations for Paris during summertime. The advection of SOA from outside Paris is mostly responsible for the highest OA concentration levels. During advection of polluted air masses from northeast (Benelux and Central Europe), simulations indicate high levels of both anthropogenic and biogenic SOA fractions, while biogenic SOA dominates during periods with advection from Southern France and Spain.
- ItemComposition and evolution of volcanic aerosol from eruptions of Kasatochi, Sarychev and Eyjafjallajökull in 2008-2010 based on CARIBIC observations(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2013) Andersson, S.M.; Martinsson, B.G.; Friberg, J.; Brenninkmeijer, C.A.M.; Rauthe-Schöch, A.; Hermann, M.; van Velthoven, P.F.J.; Zahn, A.Large volcanic eruptions impact significantly on climate and lead to ozone depletion due to injection of particles and gases into the stratosphere where their residence times are long. In this the composition of volcanic aerosol is an important but inadequately studied factor. Samples of volcanically influenced aerosol were collected following the Kasatochi (Alaska), Sarychev (Russia) and also during the Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland) eruptions in the period 2008–2010. Sampling was conducted by the CARIBIC platform during regular flights at an altitude of 10–12 km as well as during dedicated flights through the volcanic clouds from the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in spring 2010. Elemental concentrations of the collected aerosol were obtained by accelerator-based analysis. Aerosol from the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic clouds was identified by high concentrations of sulphur and elements pointing to crustal origin, and confirmed by trajectory analysis. Signatures of volcanic influence were also used to detect volcanic aerosol in stratospheric samples collected following the Sarychev and Kasatochi eruptions. In total it was possible to identify 17 relevant samples collected between 1 and more than 100 days following the eruptions studied. The volcanically influenced aerosol mainly consisted of ash, sulphate and included a carbonaceous component. Samples collected in the volcanic cloud from Eyjafjallajökull were dominated by the ash and sulphate component (∼45% each) while samples collected in the tropopause region and LMS mainly consisted of sulphate (50–77%) and carbon (21–43%). These fractions were increasing/decreasing with the age of the aerosol. Because of the long observation period, it was possible to analyze the evolution of the relationship between the ash and sulphate components of the volcanic aerosol. From this analysis the residence time (1/e) of sulphur dioxide in the studied volcanic cloud was estimated to be 45 ± 22 days.
- ItemModeling forest plantations for carbon uptake with the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2019) Braakhekke, Maarten C.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Baas, Peter; Müller, Christoph; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.We present an extension of the dynamic global vegetation model, Lund-Potsdam-Jena Managed Land (LPJmL), to simulate planted forests intended for carbon (C) sequestration. We implemented three functional types to simulate plantation trees in temperate, tropical, and boreal climates. The parameters of these functional types were optimized to fit target growth curves (TGCs). These curves represent the evolution of stemwood C over time in typical productive plantations and were derived by combining field observations and LPJmL estimates for equivalent natural forests. While the calibrated model underestimates stemwood C growth rates compared to the TGCs, it represents substantial improvement over using natural forests to represent afforestation. Based on a simulation experiment in which we compared global natural forest versus global forest plantation, we found that forest plantations allow for much larger C uptake rates on the timescale of 100 years, with a maximum difference of a factor of 1.9, around 54 years. In subsequent simulations for an ambitious but realistic scenario in which 650Mha (14% of global managed land, 4.5% of global land surface) are converted to forest over 85 years, we found that natural forests take up 37PgC versus 48PgC for forest plantations. Comparing these results to estimations of C sequestration required to achieve the 2°C climate target, we conclude that afforestation can offer a substantial contribution to climate mitigation. Full evaluation of afforestation as a climate change mitigation strategy requires an integrated assessment which considers all relevant aspects, including costs, biodiversity, and trade-offs with other land-use types. Our extended version of LPJmL can contribute to such an assessment by providing improved estimates of C uptake rates by forest plantations. © 2019 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.
- ItemThe effect of univariate bias adjustment on multivariate hazard estimates(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2019) Zscheischler, Jakob; Fischer, Erich M.; Lange, StefanBias adjustment is often a necessity in estimating climate impacts because impact models usually rely on unbiased climate information, a requirement that climate model outputs rarely fulfil. Most currently used statistical bias-adjustment methods adjust each climate variable separately, even though impacts usually depend on multiple potentially dependent variables. Human heat stress, for instance, depends on temperature and relative humidity, two variables that are often strongly correlated. Whether univariate bias-adjustment methods effectively improve estimates of impacts that depend on multiple drivers is largely unknown, and the lack of long-term impact data prevents a direct comparison between model outputs and observations for many climate-related impacts. Here we use two hazard indicators, heat stress and a simple fire risk indicator, as proxies for more sophisticated impact models. We show that univariate bias-adjustment methods such as univariate quantile mapping often cannot effectively reduce biases in multivariate hazard estimates. In some cases, it even increases biases. These cases typically occur (i) when hazards depend equally strongly on more than one climatic driver, (ii) when models exhibit biases in the dependence structure of drivers and (iii) when univariate biases are relatively small. Using a perfect model approach, we further quantify the uncertainty in bias-adjusted hazard indicators due to internal variability and show how imperfect bias adjustment can amplify this uncertainty. Both issues can be addressed successfully with a statistical bias adjustment that corrects the multivariate dependence structure in addition to the marginal distributions of the climate drivers. Our results suggest that currently many modeled climate impacts are associated with uncertainties related to the choice of bias adjustment. We conclude that in cases where impacts depend on multiple dependent climate variables these uncertainties can be reduced using statistical bias-adjustment approaches that correct the variables' multivariate dependence structure. © 2019 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
- ItemClimate impacts on human livelihoods: Where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Lissner, T.K.; Reusser, D.E.; Schewe, J.; Lakes, T.; Kropp, J.P.Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models, as well as greenhouse gas scenarios, are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure what is referred to here as AHEAD (Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development). Based on a trans-disciplinary sample of concepts addressing human well-being and livelihoods, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows for the uncertainty of climate and impact model projections to be identified and differentiated. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions – and where it is not. The results indicate that livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity in 34 countries. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. The analysis shows that the water-specific uncertainty ranges of the model output are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD for 65 out of 111 countries, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. In 46 of the countries in the analysis, water-specific uncertainty is relevant to AHEAD. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy decisions.