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- ItemHistoric and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2013) Coumou, Dim; Robinson, AlexanderClimatic warming of about 0.5 ° C in the global mean since the 1970s has strongly increased the occurrence-probability of heat extremes on monthly to seasonal time scales. For the 21st century, climate models predict more substantial warming. Here we show that the multi-model mean of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate models accurately reproduces the evolution over time and spatial patterns of the historically observed increase in monthly heat extremes. For the near-term (i.e., by 2040), the models predict a robust, several-fold increase in the frequency of such heat extremes, irrespective of the emission scenario. However, mitigation can strongly reduce the number of heat extremes by the second half of the 21st century. Unmitigated climate change causes most (>50%) continental regions to move to a new climatic regime with the coldest summer months by the end of the century substantially hotter than the hottest experienced today. We show that the land fraction experiencing extreme heat as a function of global mean temperature follows a simple cumulative distribution function, which depends only on natural variability and the level of spatial heterogeneity in the warming.
- ItemFabrication of metal nanoparticle arrays by controlled decomposition of polymer particles(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2013) Brodoceanu, Daniel; Fang, Cheng; Voelcker, Nicolas Hans; Bauer, Christina T.; Wonn, Anne; Kroner, Elmar; Arzt, Eduard; Kraus, TobiasWe report a novel fabrication method for ordered arrays of metal nanoparticles that exploits the uniform arrangement of polymer beads deposited as close-packed monolayers. In contrast to colloidal lithography that applies particles as masks, we used thermal decomposition of the metal-covered particles to precisely define metal structures. Large arrays of noble metal (Au, Ag, Pt) nanoparticles were produced in a three-step process on silicon, fused silica and sapphire substrates, demonstrating the generality of this approach. Polystyrene spheres with diameters ranging between 110 nm and 1 µm were convectively assembled into crystalline monolayers, coated with metal and annealed in a resistive furnace or using an ethanol flame. The thermal decomposition of the polymer microspheres converted the metal layer into particles arranged in hexagonal arrays that preserved the order of the original monolayer. Both the particle size and the interparticle distance were adjusted via the thickness of the metal coating and the sphere diameter, respectively.
- ItemMicrostructure evolution during annealing of an SPD- processed supersaturated Cu – 3 at.% Ag alloy(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2014) Gubicza, J.; Hegedűs, Z.; Lábár, J.L.; Sarma, V.S.; Kauffmann, A.; Freudenberger, J.Supersaturated Cu-3 at.% Ag alloy was processed by rolling at liquid nitrogen temperature and subsequent annealing at 623 K up to 20 min. It was found that after annealing, an inhomogeneous solute atom distribution developed, since the Ag particles with small size and/or large specific interfacial energy were dissolved due to the Gibbs-Thomson effect. In the region where the solute concentration increased, a high dislocation density was retained in the Cu matrix even after annealing, while in the region where the Ag solute content did not increase, the dislocation density decreased by more than one order of magnitude. Therefore, in the cryorolled and annealed samples, heterogeneous microstructures were developed where both the dislocation density and the solute concentration varied considerably.
- ItemThe 2018 correlative microscopy techniques roadmap(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2018) Ando, Toshio; Bhamidimarri, Satya Prathyusha; Brending, Niklas; Colin-York, H; Collinson, Lucy; De Jonge, Niels; de Pablo, P J; Debroye, Elke; Eggeling, Christian; Franck, Christian; Fritzsche, Marco; Gerritsen, Hans; Giepmans, Ben N G; Grunewald, Kay; Hofkens, Johan; Hoogenboom, Jacob P; Janssen, Kris P F; Kaufmann, Rainer; Klumpermann, Judith; Kurniawan, Nyoman; Kusch, Jana; Liv, Nalan; Parekh, Viha; Peckys, Diana B; Rehfeldt, Florian; Reutens, David C; Roeffaers, Maarten B J; Salditt, Tim; Schaap, Iwan A T; Schwarz, Ulrich S; Verkade, Paul; Vogel, Michael W; Wagner, Richard; Winterhalter, Mathias; Yuan, Haifeng; Zifarelli, GiovanniDevelopments in microscopy have been instrumental to progress in the life sciences, and many new techniques have been introduced and led to new discoveries throughout the last century. A wide and diverse range of methodologies is now available, including electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy, magnetic resonance imaging, small-angle x-ray scattering and multiple super-resolution fluorescence techniques, and each of these methods provides valuable read-outs to meet the demands set by the samples under study. Yet, the investigation of cell development requires a multi-parametric approach to address both the structure and spatio-temporal organization of organelles, and also the transduction of chemical signals and forces involved in cell–cell interactions. Although the microscopy technologies for observing each of these characteristics are well developed, none of them can offer read-out of all characteristics simultaneously, which limits the information content of a measurement. For example, while electron microscopy is able to disclose the structural layout of cells and the macromolecular arrangement of proteins, it cannot directly follow dynamics in living cells. The latter can be achieved with fluorescence microscopy which, however, requires labelling and lacks spatial resolution. A remedy is to combine and correlate different readouts from the same specimen, which opens new avenues to understand structure–function relations in biomedical research. At the same time, such correlative approaches pose new challenges concerning sample preparation, instrument stability, region of interest retrieval, and data analysis. Because the field of correlative microscopy is relatively young, the capabilities of the various approaches have yet to be fully explored, and uncertainties remain when considering the best choice of strategy and workflow for the correlative experiment. With this in mind, the Journal of Physics D: Applied Physics presents a special roadmap on the correlative microscopy techniques, giving a comprehensive overview from various leading scientists in this field, via a collection of multiple short viewpoints.
- ItemEconomic mitigation challenges: How further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2013) Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Bertram, Christoph; Kriegler, Elmar; Meinshausen, Malte; Edenhofer, OttmarWhile the international community aims to limit global warming to below 2 ° C to prevent dangerous climate change, little progress has been made towards a global climate agreement to implement the emissions reductions required to reach this target. We use an integrated energy–economy–climate modeling system to examine how a further delay of cooperative action and technology availability affect climate mitigation challenges. With comprehensive emissions reductions starting after 2015 and full technology availability we estimate that maximum 21st century warming may still be limited below 2 ° C with a likely probability and at moderate economic impacts. Achievable temperature targets rise by up to ~0.4 ° C if the implementation of comprehensive climate policies is delayed by another 15 years, chiefly because of transitional economic impacts. If carbon capture and storage (CCS) is unavailable, the lower limit of achievable targets rises by up to ~0.3 ° C. Our results show that progress in international climate negotiations within this decade is imperative to keep the 2 ° C target within reach.
- ItemBalancing trade-offs between ecosystem services in Germany's forests under climate change(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2018) Gutsch, Martin; Lasch-Born, Petra; Kollas, Chris; Suckow, Felicitas; Reyer, Christopher P.O.Germany's forests provide a variety of ecosystem services. Sustainable forest management aims to optimize the provision of these services at regional level. However, climate change will impact forest ecosystems and subsequently ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of two alternative management scenarios and climate impacts on forest variables indicative of ecosystem services related to timber, habitat, water, and carbon. The ecosystem services are represented through nine model output variables (timber harvest, above and belowground biomass, net ecosystem production, soil carbon, percolation, nitrogen leaching, deadwood, tree dimension, broadleaf tree proportion) from the process-based forest model 4C. We simulated forest growth, carbon and water cycling until 2045 with 4C set-up for the whole German forest area based on National Forest Inventory data and driven by three management strategies (nature protection, biomass production and a baseline management) and an ensemble of regional climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5). We provide results as relative changes compared to the baseline management and observed climate. Forest management measures have the strongest effects on ecosystem services inducing positive or negative changes of up to 40% depending on the ecosystem service in question, whereas climate change only slightly alters ecosystem services averaged over the whole forest area. The ecosystem services 'carbon' and 'timber' benefit from climate change, while 'water' and 'habitat' lose. We detect clear trade-offs between 'timber' and all other ecosystem services, as well as synergies between 'habitat' and 'carbon'. When evaluating all ecosystem services simultaneously, our results reveal certain interrelations between climate and management scenarios. North-eastern and western forest regions are more suitable to provide timber (while minimizing the negative impacts on remaining ecosystem services) whereas southern and central forest regions are more suitable to fulfil 'habitat' and 'carbon' services. The results provide the base for future forest management optimizations at the regional scale in order to maximize ecosystem services and forest ecosystem sustainability at the national scale.
- ItemContrasting and interacting changes in simulated spring and summer carbon cycle extremes in European ecosystems(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2017) Sippel, Sebastian; Forkel, Matthias; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Flach, Milan; Heimann, Martin; Otto, Friederike E.L.; Reichstein, Markus; Mahecha, Miguel D.Climate extremes have the potential to cause extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystem functioning. However, it is neither straightforward to quantify and predict extreme ecosystem responses, nor to attribute these responses to specific climate drivers. Here, we construct a factorial experiment based on a large ensemble of process-oriented ecosystem model simulations driven by a regional climate model (12 500 model years in 1985–2010) in six European regions. Our aims are to (1) attribute changes in the intensity and frequency of simulated ecosystem productivity extremes (EPEs) to recent changes in climate extremes, CO2 concentration, and land use, and to (2) assess the effect of timing and seasonal interaction on the intensity of EPEs. Evaluating the ensemble simulations reveals that (1) recent trends in EPEs are seasonally contrasting: spring EPEs show consistent trends towards increased carbon uptake, while trends in summer EPEs are predominantly negative in net ecosystem productivity (i.e. higher net carbon release under drought and heat in summer) and close-to-neutral in gross productivity. While changes in climate and its extremes (mainly warming) and changes in CO2 increase spring productivity, changes in climate extremes decrease summer productivity neutralizing positive effects of CO2. Furthermore, we find that (2) drought or heat wave induced carbon losses in summer (i.e. negative EPEs) can be partly compensated by a higher uptake in the preceding spring in temperate regions. Conversely, however, carry-over effects from spring to summer that arise from depleted soil moisture exacerbate the carbon losses caused by climate extremes in summer, and are thus undoing spring compensatory effects. While the spring-compensation effect is increasing over time, the carry-over effect shows no trend between 1985–2010. The ensemble ecosystem model simulations provide a process-based interpretation and generalization for spring-summer interacting carbon cycle effects caused by climate extremes (i.e. compensatory and carry-over effects). In summary, the ensemble ecosystem modelling approach presented in this paper offers a novel route to scrutinize ecosystem responses to changing climate extremes in a probabilistic framework, and to pinpoint the underlying eco-physiological mechanisms.
- ItemHow to grow single-crystalline and epitaxial NiTi films in (100)- and (111)-orientation(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2023) Lünser, Klara; Undisz, Andreas; Nielsch, Kornelius; Fähler, SebastianUnderstanding the martensitic microstructure in nickel-titanium (NiTi) thin films helps to optimize their properties for applications in microsystems. Epitaxial and single-crystalline films can serve as model systems to understand the microstructure, as well as to exploit the anisotropic mechanical properties of NiTi. Here, we analyze the growth of NiTi on single-crystalline MgO(100) and Al2O3(0001) substrates and optimize film and buffer deposition conditions to achieve epitaxial films in (100)- and (111)-orientation. On MgO(100), we compare the transformation behavior and crystal quality of (100)-oriented NiTi films on different buffer layers. We demonstrate that a vanadium buffer layer helps to decrease the low-angle grain boundary density in the NiTi film, which inhibits undesired growth twins and leads to higher transformation temperatures. On Al2O3(0001), we analyze the orientation of a chromium buffer layer and find that it grows (111)-oriented only in a narrow temperature range around 500 ∘C. By depositing the Cr buffer below the NiTi film, we can prepare (111)-oriented, epitaxial films with transformation temperatures above room temperature. Transmission electron microscopy confirms a martensitic microstructure with Guinier Preston-zone precipitates at room temperature. We identify the deposition conditions to approach the ideal single crystalline state, which is beneficial for the analysis of the martensitic microstructure and anisotropic mechanical properties in different film orientations.
- ItemAfforestation to mitigate climate change: Impacts on food prices under consideration of albedo effects(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2016) Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Humpenöder, Florian; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leo; Kriegler, Elmar; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, AlexanderAmbitious climate targets, such as the 2 °C target, are likely to require the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Afforestation is one such mitigation option but could, through the competition for land, also lead to food prices hikes. In addition, afforestation often decreases land-surface albedo and the amount of short-wave radiation reflected back to space, which results in a warming effect. In particular in the boreal zone, such biophysical warming effects following from afforestation are estimated to offset the cooling effect from carbon sequestration. We assessed the food price response of afforestation, and considered the albedo effect with scenarios in which afforestation was restricted to certain latitudinal zones. In our study, afforestation was incentivized by a globally uniform reward for carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere. This resulted in large-scale afforestation (2580 Mha globally) and substantial carbon sequestration (860 GtCO2) up to the end of the century. However, it was also associated with an increase in food prices of about 80% by 2050 and a more than fourfold increase by 2100. When afforestation was restricted to the tropics the food price response was substantially reduced, while still almost 60% cumulative carbon sequestration was achieved. In the medium term, the increase in prices was then lower than the increase in income underlying our scenario projections. Moreover, our results indicate that more liberalised trade in agricultural commodities could buffer the food price increases following from afforestation in tropical regions..
- ItemUS power plant sites at risk of future sea-level rise(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2015) Bierkandt, R.; Auffhammer, M.; Levermann, A.Unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions may increase global mean sea-level by about 1 meter during this century. Such elevation of the mean sea-level enhances the risk of flooding of coastal areas. We compute the power capacity that is currently out-of-reach of a 100-year coastal flooding but will be exposed to such a flood by the end of the century for different US states, if no adaptation measures are taken. The additional exposed capacity varies strongly among states. For Delaware it is 80% of the mean generated power load. For New York this number is 63% and for Florida 43%. The capacity that needs additional protection compared to today increases by more than 250% for Texas, 90% for Florida and 70% for New York. Current development in power plant building points towards a reduced future exposure to sea-level rise: proposed and planned power plants are less exposed than those which are currently operating. However, power plants that have been retired or canceled were less exposed than those operating at present. If sea-level rise is properly accounted for in future planning, an adaptation to sea-level rise may be costly but possible.