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- ItemClimate-driven interannual variability of water scarcity in food production potential: A global analysis(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2014) Kummu, M.; Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Konzmann, M.; Varis, O.Interannual climatic and hydrologic variability has been substantial during the past decades in many regions. While climate variability and its impacts on precipitation and soil moisture have been studied intensively, less is known on subsequent implications for global food production. In this paper we quantify effects of hydroclimatic variability on global "green" and "blue" water availability and demand in global agriculture, and thus complement former studies that have focused merely on long-term averages. Moreover, we assess some options to overcome chronic or sporadic water scarcity. The analysis is based on historical climate forcing data sets over the period 1977-2006, while demography, diet composition and land use are fixed to reference conditions (year 2000). In doing so, we isolate the effect of interannual hydroclimatic variability from other factors that drive food production. We analyse the potential of food production units (FPUs) to produce a reference diet for their inhabitants (3000 kcal cap-1 day -1, with 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products). We applied the LPJmL vegetation and hydrology model to calculate the variation in green-blue water availability and the water requirements to produce that very diet. An FPU was considered water scarce if its water availability was not sufficient to produce the diet (i.e. assuming food self-sufficiency to estimate dependency on trade from elsewhere). We found that 24% of the world's population lives in chronically water-scarce FPUs (i.e. water is scarce every year), while an additional 19% live under occasional water scarcity (water is scarce in some years). Among these 2.6 billion people altogether, 55% would have to rely on international trade to reach the reference diet, while for 24% domestic trade would be enough. For the remaining 21% of the population exposed to some degree of water scarcity, local food storage and/or intermittent trade would be enough to secure the reference diet over the occasional dry years.
- ItemPeakTree: A framework for structure-preserving radar Doppler spectra analysis(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) Radenz, M.; Bühl, J.; Seifert, P.; Griesche, H.; Engelmann, R.Clouds are frequently composed of more than one particle population even at the smallest scales. Cloud radar observations frequently contain information on multiple particle species in the observation volume when there are distinct peaks in the Doppler spectrum. Multi-peaked situations are not taken into account by established algorithms, which only use moments of the Doppler spectrum. In this study, we propose a new algorithm that recursively represents the subpeaks as nodes in a binary tree. Using this tree data structure to represent the peaks of a Doppler spectrum, it is possible to drop all a priori assumptions on the number and arrangement of subpeaks. The approach is rigid, unambiguous and can provide a basis for advanced analysis methods. The applicability is briefly demonstrated in two case studies, in which the tree structure was used to investigate particle populations in Arctic multilayered mixed-phase clouds, which were observed during the research vessel Polarstern expedition PS106 and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program BAECC campaign.
- ItemClimate change and its effect on agriculture, water resources and human health sectors in Poland(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2010) Szwed, M.; Karg, G.; Pińskwar, I.; Radziejewski, M.; Graczyk, D.; Kȩdziora, A.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.Multi-model ensemble climate projections in the ENSEMBLES Project of the EU allowed the authors to quantify selected extreme-weather indices for Poland, of importance to climate impacts on systems and sectors. Among indices were: number of days in a year with high value of the heat index; with high maximum and minimum temperatures; length of vegetation period; and number of consecutive dry days. Agricultural, hydrological, and human health indices were applied to evaluate the changing risk of weather extremes in Poland in three sectors. To achieve this, model-based simulations were compared for two time horizons, a century apart, i.e., 1961-1990 and 2061-2090. Climate changes, and in particular increases in temperature and changes in rainfall, have strong impacts on agriculture via weather extremes-droughts and heat waves. The crop yield depends particularly on water availability in the plant development phase. To estimate the changes in present and future yield of two crops important for Polish agriculture i.e., potatoes and wheat, some simple empirical models were used. For these crops, decrease of yield is projected for most of the country, with national means of yield change being:-2.175 t/ha for potatoes and-0.539 t/ha for wheat. Already now, in most of Poland, evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation during summer, hence the water storage (in surface water bodies, soil and ground) decreases. Summer precipitation deficit is projected to increase considerably in the future. The additional water supplies (above precipitation) needed to use the agro-potential of the environment would increase by half. Analysis of water balance components (now and in the projected future) can corroborate such conclusions. As regards climate and health, a composite index, proposed in this paper, is a product of the number of senior discomfort days and the number of seniors (aged 65+). The value of this index is projected to increase over 8-fold during 100 years. This is an effect of both increase in the number of seniors (over twofold) and the number of senior-discomfort days (nearly fourfold).
- ItemEnhancing the spatiotemporal features of polar mesosphere summer echoes using coherent MIMO and radar imaging at MAARSY(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) Urco, J.M.; Chau, J.L.; Weber, T.; Latteck, R.Polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSEs) are very strong radar echoes caused by the presence of ice particles, turbulence, and free electrons in the mesosphere over polar regions. For more than three decades, PMSEs have been used as natural tracers of the complicated atmospheric dynamics of this region. Neutral winds and turbulence parameters have been obtained assuming PMSE horizontal homogeneity on scales of tens of kilometers. Recent radar imaging studies have shown that PMSEs are not homogeneous on these scales and instead they are composed of kilometer-scale structures. In this paper, we present a technique that allows PMSE observations with unprecedented angular resolution (∼0.6). The technique combines the concept of coherent MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output) and two high-resolution imaging techniques, i.e., Capon and maximum entropy (MaxEnt). The resulting resolution is evaluated by imaging specular meteor echoes. The gain in angular resolution compared to previous approaches using SIMO (Single Input Multiple Output) and Capon is at least a factor of 2; i.e., at 85 km, we obtain a horizontal resolution of ∼900 m. The advantage of the new technique is evaluated with two events of 3-D PMSE structures showing: (1) horizontal wavelengths of 8-10 km and periods of 4-7 min, drifting with the background wind, and (2) horizontal wavelengths of 12-16 km and periods of 15-20 min, not drifting with the background wind. Besides the advantages of the implemented technique, we discuss its current challenges, like the use of reduced power aperture and processing time, as well as the future opportunities for improving the understanding of the complex small-scale atmospheric dynamics behind PMSEs. © 2019 Author(s).
- ItemCoal fly ash: Linking immersion freezing behavior and physicochemical particle properties(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2018) Grawe, S.; Augustin-Bauditz, S.; Clemen, H.-C.; Ebert, M.; Eriksen Hammer, S.; Lubitz, J.; Reicher, N.; Rudich, Y.; Schneider, J.; Staacke, R.; Stratmann, F.; Welti, A.; Wex, H.To date, only a few studies have investigated the potential of coal fly ash particles to trigger heterogeneous ice nucleation in cloud droplets. The presented measurements aim at expanding the sparse dataset and improving process understanding of how physicochemical particle properties can influence the freezing behavior of coal fly ash particles immersed in water. Firstly, immersion freezing measurements were performed with two single particle techniques, i.e., the Leipzig Aerosol Cloud Interaction Simulator (LACIS) and the SPectrometer for Ice Nuclei (SPIN). The effect of suspension time on the efficiency of the coal fly ash particles when immersed in a cloud droplet is analyzed based on the different residence times of the two instruments and employing both dry and wet particle generation. Secondly, two cold-stage setups, one using microliter sized droplets (Leipzig Ice Nucleation Array) and one using nanoliter sized droplets (WeIzmann Supercooled Droplets Observation on Microarray setup) were applied. We found that coal fly ash particles are comparable to mineral dust in their immersion freezing behavior when being dry generated. However, a significant decrease in immersion freezing efficiency was observed during experiments with wet-generated particles in LACIS and SPIN. The efficiency of wet-generated particles is in agreement with the cold-stage measurements. In order to understand the reason behind the deactivation, a series of chemical composition, morphology, and crystallography analyses (single particle mass spectrometry, scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive X-ray microanalysis, X-ray diffraction analysis) were performed with dry- and wet-generated particles. From these investigations, we conclude that anhydrous CaSO4 and CaO - which, if investigated in pure form, show the same qualitative immersion freezing behavior as observed for dry-generated coal fly ash particles - contribute to triggering heterogeneous ice nucleation at the particle-water interface. The observed deactivation in contact with water is related to changes in the particle surface properties which are potentially caused by hydration of CaSO4 and CaO. The contribution of coal fly ash to the ambient population of ice-nucleating particles therefore depends on whether and for how long particles are immersed in cloud droplets.
- ItemWildfires as a source of airborne mineral dust - Revisiting a conceptual model using large-eddy simulation (LES)(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2018) Wagner, R.; Jähn, M.; Schepanski, K.Airborne mineral dust is a key player in the Earth system and shows manifold impacts on atmospheric properties such as the radiation budget and cloud microphysics. Investigations of smoke plumes originating from wildfires found significant fractions of mineral dust within these plumes - most likely raised by strong, turbulent fire-related winds. This study presents and revisits a conceptual model describing the emission of mineral dust particles during wildfires. This is achieved by means of high-resolution large-eddy simulation (LES), conducted with the All Scale Atmospheric Model (ASAM). The impact of (a) different fire properties representing idealized grassland and shrubland fires, (b) different ambient wind conditions modulated by the fire's energy flux, and (c) the wind's capability to mobilize mineral dust particles was investigated. Results from this study illustrate that the energy release of the fire leads to a significant increase in near-surface wind speed, which consequently enhances the dust uplift potential. This is in particular the case within the fire area where vegetation can be assumed to be widely removed and uncovered soil is prone to wind erosion. The dust uplift potential is very sensitive to fire properties, such as fire size, shape, and intensity, but also depends on the ambient wind velocity. Although measurements already showed the importance of wildfires for dust emissions, pyro-convection is so far neglected as a dust emission process in atmosphere-aerosol models. The results presented in this study can be seen as the first step towards a systematic parameterization representing the connection between typical fire properties and related dust emissions.
- ItemThe new BELUGA setup for collocated turbulence and radiation measurements using a tethered balloon: First applications in the cloudy Arctic boundary layer(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) Egerer, U.; Gottschalk, M.; Siebert, H.; Ehrlich, A.; Wendisch, M.The new BELUGA (Balloon-bornE moduLar Utility for profilinG the lower Atmosphere) tethered balloon system is introduced. It combines a set of instruments to measure turbulent and radiative parameters and energy fluxes. BELUGA enables collocated measurements either at a constant altitude or as vertical profiles up to 1.5km in height. In particular, the instrument payload of BELUGA comprises three modular instrument packages for high-resolution meteorological, wind vector and broadband radiation measurements. Collocated data acquisition allows for estimates of the driving parameters in the energy balance at various heights. Heating rates and net irradiances can be related to turbulent fluxes and local turbulence parameters such as dissipation rates. In this paper the technical setup, the instrument performance, and the measurement strategy of BELUGA are explained. Furthermore, the high vertical resolution due to the slow ascent speed is highlighted as a major advantage of tethered balloon-borne observations. Three illustrative case studies of the first application of BELUGA in the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer are presented. As a first example, measurements of a single-layer stratocumulus are discussed. They show a pronounced cloud top radiative cooling of up to 6K h-1. To put this into context, a second case elaborates respective measurements with BELUGA in a cloudless situation. In a third example, a multilayer stratocumulus was probed, revealing reduced turbulence and negligible cloud top radiative cooling for the lower cloud layer. In all three cases the net radiative fluxes are much higher than turbulent fluxes. Altogether, BELUGA has proven its robust performance in cloudy conditions of the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer.
- ItemCombining cloud radar and radar wind profiler for a value added estimate of vertical air motion and particle terminal velocity within clouds(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2018) Radenz, M.; Bühl, J.; Lehmann, V.; Görsdorf, U.; Leinweber, R.Vertical-stare observations from a 482MHz radar wind profiler and a 35GHz cloud radar are combined on the level of individual Doppler spectra to measure vertical air motions in clear air, clouds and precipitation. For this purpose, a separation algorithm is proposed to remove the influence of falling particles from the wind profiler Doppler spectra and to calculate the terminal fall velocity of hydrometeors. The remaining error of both vertical air motion and terminal fall velocity is estimated to be better than 0.1ms-1 using numerical simulations. This combination of instruments allows direct measurements of in-cloud vertical air velocity and particle terminal fall velocity by means of ground-based remote sensing. The possibility of providing a profile every 10s with a height resolution of < 100m allows further insight into the process scale of in-cloud dynamics. The results of the separation algorithm are illustrated by two case studies, the first covering a deep frontal cloud and the second featuring a shallow mixed-phase cloud.
- ItemReliability of regional climate model simulations of extremes and of long-term climate(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2004) Böhm, U.; Kücken, M.; Hauffe, D.; Gerstengarbe, E.-W.; Werner, P.C.; Flechsig, M.; Keuler, K.; Block, A.; Ahrens, W.; Nocke, T.We present two case studies that demonstrate how a common evaluation methodology can be used to assess the reliability of regional climate model simulations from different fields of research. In Case I, we focused on the agricultural yield loss risk for maize in Northeastern Brazil during a drought linked to an El-Niño event. In Case II, the present-day regional climatic conditions in Europe for a 10-year period are simulated. To comprehensively evaluate the model results for both kinds of investigations, we developed a general methodology. On its basis, we elaborated and implemented modules to assess the quality of model results using both advanced visualization techniques and statistical algorithms. Besides univariate approaches for individual near-surface parameters, we used multivariate statistics to investigate multiple near-surface parameters of interest together. For the latter case, we defined generalized quality measures to quantify the model's accuracy. Furthermore, we elaborated a diagnosis tool applicable for atmospheric variables to assess the model's accuracy in representing the physical processes above the surface under various aspects. By means of this evaluation approach, it could be demonstrated in Case Study I that the accuracy of the applied regional climate model resides at the same level as that we found for another regional model and a global model. Excessive precipitation during the rainy season in coastal regions could be identified as a major contribution leading to this result. In Case Study II, we also identified the accuracy of the investigated mean characteristics for near-surface temperature and precipitation to be comparable to another regional model. In this case, an artificial modulation of the used initial and boundary data during preprocessing could be identified as the major source of error in the simulation. Altogether, the achieved results for the presented investigations indicate the potential of our methodology to be applied as a common test bed to different fields of research in regional climate modeling.
- ItemComparison of correlation analysis techniques for irregularly sampled time series(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2011) Rehfeld, K.; Marwan, N.; Heitzig, J.; Kurths, J.Geoscientific measurements often provide time series with irregular time sampling, requiring either data reconstruction (interpolation) or sophisticated methods to handle irregular sampling. We compare the linear interpolation technique and different approaches for analyzing the correlation functions and persistence of irregularly sampled time series, as Lomb-Scargle Fourier transformation and kernel-based methods. In a thorough benchmark test we investigate the performance of these techniques. All methods have comparable root mean square errors (RMSEs) for low skewness of the inter-observation time distribution. For high skewness, very irregular data, interpolation bias and RMSE increase strongly. We find a 40 % lower RMSE for the lag-1 autocorrelation function (ACF) for the Gaussian kernel method vs. the linear interpolation scheme,in the analysis of highly irregular time series. For the cross correlation function (CCF) the RMSE is then lower by 60 %. The application of the Lomb-Scargle technique gave results comparable to the kernel methods for the univariate, but poorer results in the bivariate case. Especially the high-frequency components of the signal, where classical methods show a strong bias in ACF and CCF magnitude, are preserved when using the kernel methods. We illustrate the performances of interpolation vs. Gaussian kernel method by applying both to paleo-data from four locations, reflecting late Holocene Asian monsoon variability as derived from speleothem δ18O measurements. Cross correlation results are similar for both methods, which we attribute to the long time scales of the common variability. The persistence time (memory) is strongly overestimated when using the standard, interpolation-based, approach. Hence, the Gaussian kernel is a reliable and more robust estimator with significant advantages compared to other techniques and suitable for large scale application to paleo-data.