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- ItemOur future in the Anthropocene biosphere(Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 2021) Folke, Carl; Polasky, Stephen; Rockström, Johan; Galaz, Victor; Westley, Frances; Lamont, Michèle; Scheffer, Marten; Österblom, Henrik; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Seto, Karen C.; Weber, Elke U.; Crona, Beatrice I.; Daily, Gretchen C.; Dasgupta, Partha; Gaffney, Owen; Gordon, Line J.; Hoff, Holger; Levin, Simon A.; Lubchenco, Jane; Steffen, Will; Walker, Brian H.The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality—of rising system-wide turbulence—calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations. © 2021, The Author(s).
- ItemIncorporating Biodiversity into Biogeochemistry Models to Improve Prediction of Ecosystem Services in Temperate Grasslands: Review and Roadmap(Basel : MDPI, 2020) Van Oijen, Marcel; Barcza, Zoltán; Confalonieri, Roberto; Korhonen, Panu; Kröel-Dulay, György; Lellei-Kovács, Eszter; Louarn, Gaëtan; Louault, Frédérique; Martin, Raphaël; Moulin, Thibault; Movedi, Ermes; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Rolinski, Susanne; Viovy, Nicolas; Wirth, Stephen Björn; Bellocchi, GianniMulti-species grasslands are reservoirs of biodiversity and provide multiple ecosystem services, including fodder production and carbon sequestration. The provision of these services depends on the control exerted on the biogeochemistry and plant diversity of the system by the interplay of biotic and abiotic factors, e.g., grazing or mowing intensity. Biogeochemical models incorporate a mechanistic view of the functioning of grasslands and provide a sound basis for studying the underlying processes. However, in these models, the simulation of biogeochemical cycles is generally not coupled to simulation of plant species dynamics, which leads to considerable uncertainty about the quality of predictions. Ecological models, on the other hand, do account for biodiversity with approaches adopted from plant demography, but without linking the dynamics of plant species to the biogeochemical processes occurring at the community level, and this hampers the models’ capacity to assess resilience against abiotic stresses such as drought and nutrient limitation. While setting out the state-of-the-art developments of biogeochemical and ecological modelling, we explore and highlight the role of plant diversity in the regulation of the ecosystem processes underlying the ecosystems services provided by multi-species grasslands. An extensive literature and model survey was carried out with an emphasis on technically advanced models reconciling biogeochemistry and biodiversity, which are readily applicable to managed grasslands in temperate latitudes. We propose a roadmap of promising developments in modelling.
- ItemModeling forest plantations for carbon uptake with the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2019) Braakhekke, Maarten C.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Baas, Peter; Müller, Christoph; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.We present an extension of the dynamic global vegetation model, Lund-Potsdam-Jena Managed Land (LPJmL), to simulate planted forests intended for carbon (C) sequestration. We implemented three functional types to simulate plantation trees in temperate, tropical, and boreal climates. The parameters of these functional types were optimized to fit target growth curves (TGCs). These curves represent the evolution of stemwood C over time in typical productive plantations and were derived by combining field observations and LPJmL estimates for equivalent natural forests. While the calibrated model underestimates stemwood C growth rates compared to the TGCs, it represents substantial improvement over using natural forests to represent afforestation. Based on a simulation experiment in which we compared global natural forest versus global forest plantation, we found that forest plantations allow for much larger C uptake rates on the timescale of 100 years, with a maximum difference of a factor of 1.9, around 54 years. In subsequent simulations for an ambitious but realistic scenario in which 650Mha (14% of global managed land, 4.5% of global land surface) are converted to forest over 85 years, we found that natural forests take up 37PgC versus 48PgC for forest plantations. Comparing these results to estimations of C sequestration required to achieve the 2°C climate target, we conclude that afforestation can offer a substantial contribution to climate mitigation. Full evaluation of afforestation as a climate change mitigation strategy requires an integrated assessment which considers all relevant aspects, including costs, biodiversity, and trade-offs with other land-use types. Our extended version of LPJmL can contribute to such an assessment by providing improved estimates of C uptake rates by forest plantations. © 2019 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.
- ItemA conceptual framework for analysing and measuring land-use intensity(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2013) Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Lindner, Marcus; MĂĽller, Daniel; Verburg, Peter H.; Reenberg, AnetteLarge knowledge gaps currently exist that limit our ability to understand and characterise dynamics and patterns of land-use intensity: in particular, a comprehensive conceptual framework and a system of measurement are lacking. This situation hampers the development of a sound understanding of the mechanisms, determinants, and constraints underlying changes in land-use intensity. On the basis of a review of approaches for studying land-use intensity, we propose a conceptual framework to quantify and analyse land-use intensity. This framework integrates three dimensions: (a) input intensity, (b) output intensity, and (c) the associated system-level impacts of land- based production (e.g. changes in carbon storage or biodiversity). The systematic development of indicators across these dimensions would provide opportunities for the systematic analyses of the trade-offs, synergies and opportunity costs of land-use intensification strategies.
- ItemTransforming the study of organisms: Phenomic data models and knowledge bases(San Francisco, Calif. : Public Library of Science, 2020) Thessen, Anne E.; Walls, Ramona L.; Vogt, Lars; Singer, Jessica; Warren, Robert; Buttigieg, Pier Luigi; Balhoff, James P.; Mungall, Christopher J.; McGuinness, Deborah L.; Stucky, Brian J.; Yoder, Matthew J.; Haendel, Melissa A.The rapidly decreasing cost of gene sequencing has resulted in a deluge of genomic data from across the tree of life; however, outside a few model organism databases, genomic data are limited in their scientific impact because they are not accompanied by computable phenomic data. The majority of phenomic data are contained in countless small, heterogeneous phenotypic data sets that are very difficult or impossible to integrate at scale because of variable formats, lack of digitization, and linguistic problems. One powerful solution is to represent phenotypic data using data models with precise, computable semantics, but adoption of semantic standards for representing phenotypic data has been slow, especially in biodiversity and ecology. Some phenotypic and trait data are available in a semantic language from knowledge bases, but these are often not interoperable. In this review, we will compare and contrast existing ontology and data models, focusing on nonhuman phenotypes and traits. We discuss barriers to integration of phenotypic data and make recommendations for developing an operationally useful, semantically interoperable phenotypic data ecosystem.
- ItemThe LEGATO cross-disciplinary integrated ecosystem service research framework: an example of integrating research results from the analysis of global change impacts and the social, cultural and economic system dynamics of irrigated rice production(Heidelberg : Springer Verlag, 2017) Spangenberg, J.H.; Beaurepaire, A.L.; Bergmeier, E.; Burkhard, B.; van Chien, H.; Cuong, L.Q.; Görg, C.; Grescho, V.; Hai, L.H.; Heong, K.L.; Horgan, F.G.; Hotes, S.; KlotzbĂĽcher, A.; KlotzbĂĽcher, T.; KĂĽhn, I.; Langerwisch, F.; Marion, G.; Moritz, R.F.A.; Nguyen, Q.A.; Ott, J.; Sann, C.; Sattler, C.; Schädler, M.; Schmidt, A.; Tekken, V.; Thanh, T.D.; Thonicke, K.; TĂĽrke, M.; VáclavĂk, T.; Vetterlein, D.; Westphal, C.; Wiemers, M.; Settele, J.In a cross-disciplinary project (LEGATO) combining inter- and transdisciplinary methods, we quantify the dependency of rice-dominated socio-ecological systems on ecosystem functions (ESF) and the ecosystem services (ESS) the integrated system provides. In the collaboration of a large team including geo- and bioscientists, economists, political and cultural scientists, the mutual influences of the biological, climate and soil conditions of the agricultural area and its surrounding natural landscape have been analysed. One focus was on sociocultural and economic backgrounds, another on local as well as regional land use intensity and biodiversity, and the potential impacts of future climate and land use change. LEGATO analysed characteristic elements of three service strands defined by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA): (a) provisioning services: nutrient cycling and crop production; (b) regulating services: biocontrol and pollination; and (c) cultural services: cultural identity and aesthetics. However, in line with much of the current ESS literature, what the MA called supporting services is treated as ESF within LEGATO. As a core output, LEGATO developed generally applicable principles of ecological engineering (EE), suitable for application in the context of future climate and land use change. EE is an emerging discipline, concerned with the design, monitoring and construction of ecosystems and aims at developing strategies to optimise ecosystem services through exploiting natural regulation mechanisms instead of suppressing them. Along these lines LEGATO also aims to create the knowledge base for decision-making for sustainable land management and livelihoods, including the provision of the corresponding governance and management strategies, technologies and system solutions.
- ItemProcess disturbances in agricultural biogas production—causes, mechanisms and effects on the biogas microbiome: A review(Basel : MDPI AG, 2019) Theuerl, S.; Klang, J.; Prochnow, A.Disturbances of the anaerobic digestion process reduce the economic and environmental performance of biogas systems. A better understanding of the highly complex process is of crucial importance in order to avoid disturbances. This review defines process disturbances as significant changes in the functionality within the microbial community leading to unacceptable and severe decreases in biogas production and requiring an active counteraction to be overcome. The main types of process disturbances in agricultural biogas production are classified as unfavorable process temperatures, fluctuations in the availability of macro- and micronutrients (feedstock variability), overload of the microbial degradation potential, process-related accumulation of inhibiting metabolites such as hydrogen (H 2 ), ammonium/ammonia (NH 4 + /NH 3 ) or hydrogen sulphide (H 2 S) and inhibition by other organic and inorganic toxicants. Causes, mechanisms and effects on the biogas microbiome are discussed. The need for a knowledge-based microbiome management to ensure a stable and efficient production of biogas with low susceptibility to disturbances is derived and an outlook on potential future process monitoring and control by means of microbial indicators is provided.
- ItemBiodiversity research: Data without theory-theory without data(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2015) Rillig, Matthias C.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Borsch, Thomas; Gessler, Arthur; Greenwood, Alex D.; Hofer, Heribert; Joshi, Jasmin; Schröder, Boris; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tockner, Klement; Weisshuhn, Karoline; Jeltsch, Florian[No abstract available]
- ItemThe concerns of the young protesters are justified: A statement by Scientists for Future concerning the protests for more climate protection(München : Oekom Verl., 2019) Hagedorn, Gregor; Loew, Thomas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Beck, Marie-Luise; Hesse, Janina; Knutti, Reto; Quaschning, Volker; Schleimer, Jan-Hendrik; Mattauch, Linus; Breyer, Christian; Hübener, Heike; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Chodura, Alice; Clausen, Jens; Creutzig, Felix; Darbi, Marianne; Daub, Claus-Heinrich; Ekardt, Felix; Göpel, Maja; Hardt, Judith N.; Hertin, Julia; Hickler, Thomas; Köhncke, Arnulf; Köster, Stephan; Krohmer, Julia; Kromp-Kolb, Helga; Leinfelder, Reinhold; Mederake, Linda; Neuhaus, Michael; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Schmidt, Christine; Schneider, Christoph; Schneider, Gerhard; Seppelt, Ralf; Spindler, Uli; Springmann, Marco; Staab, Katharina; Stocker, Thomas F.; Steininger, Karl; Hirschhausen, Eckart von; Winter, Susanne; Wittau, Martin; Zens, JosefIn March 2019, German-speaking scientists and scholars calling themselves Scientists for Future, published a statement in support of the youth protesters in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland (Fridays for Future, Klimastreik/Climate Strike), verifying the scientific evidence that the youth protestors refer to. In this article, they provide the full text of the statement, including the list of supporting facts (in both English and German) as well as an analysis of the results and impacts of the statement. Furthermore, they reflect on the challenges for scientists and scholars who feel a dual responsibility: on the one hand, to remain independent and politically neutral, and, on the other hand, to inform and warn societies of the dangers that lie ahead. © 2019 G. Hagedorn et al.; licensee oekom verlag.This Open Access article is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License CCBY4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0).
- ItemPotential effects of climate change on inundation patterns in the Amazon Basin(Chichester : John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2013) Langerwisch, F.; Rost, S.; Gerten, D.; Poulter, B.; Rammig, A.; Cramer, W.Floodplain forests, namely the Várzea and Igapó, cover an area of more than 97 000 km2. A key factor for their function and diversity is annual flooding. Increasing air temperature and higher precipitation variability caused by climate change are expected to shift the flooding regime during this century, and thereby impact floodplain ecosystems, their biodiversity and riverine ecosystem services. To assess the effects of climate change on the flooding regime, we use the Dynamic Global Vegetation and Hydrology Model LPJmL, enhanced by a scheme that realistically simulates monthly flooded area. Simulation results of discharge and inundation under contemporary conditions compare well against site-level measurements and observations. The changes of calculated inundation duration and area under climate change projections from 24 IPCC AR4 climate models differ regionally towards the end of the 21st century. In all, 70% of the 24 climate projections agree on an increase of flooded area in about one third of the basin. Inundation duration increases dramatically by on average three months in western and around one month in eastern Amazonia. The time of high- and low-water peak shifts by up to three months. Additionally, we find a decrease in the number of extremely dry years and in the probability of the occurrence of three consecutive extremely dry years. The total number of extremely wet years does not change drastically but the probability of three consecutive extremely wet years decreases by up to 30% in the east and increases by up to 25% in the west. These changes implicate significant shifts in regional vegetation and climate, and will dramatically alter carbon and water cycles.