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- ItemAssessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland(Warsaw : De Gruyter Open, 2018) Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Piniewski, Mikołaj; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Okruszko, Tomasz; Pińskwar, Iwona; Kardel, Ignacy; Hov, Øystein; Szcześniak, Mateusz; Szwed, Małgorzata; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Graczyk, Dariusz; Dobler, Andreas; Førland, Eirik J.; O’Keefe, Joanna; Choryński, Adam; Parding, Kajsa M.; Haugen, Jan ErikThe present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.
- ItemTemperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer, 2018) Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Huber, Veronika; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Mitchell, Dann; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Ryti, Niilo R. I.; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G.; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S.; Röösli, Martin; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L.; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Do Van, Dung; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gasparrini, AntonioThe Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.
- ItemChallenges for developing national climate services – Poland and Norway(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2017) Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Førland, Eirik J.; Piniewski, MikołajThis contribution discusses the challenges for developing national climate services in two countries with high fossil fuel production – Poland (coal) and Norway (oil and gas). Both countries, Poland and Norway, have highly developed weather services, but largely differ on climate services. Since empirical and dynamical downscaling of climate models started in Norway over 20 years ago and meteorological and hydrological institutions in Oslo and Bergen have been collaborating on tailoring and disseminating downscaled climate projections to the Norwegian society, climate services are now well developed in Norway. The Norwegian Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) was established in 2011. In contrast, climate services in Poland, in the international understanding, do not exist. Actually, Poland is not an exception, as compared to other Central and Eastern European countries, many of which neither have their national climate services, nor are really interested in European climate services disseminated via common EU initiatives. It is worth posing a question – can Poland learn from Norway as regards climate services? This contribution is based on results of the CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) project, carried out in the framework of the Polish – Norwegian Research Programme. The information generated within the Polish-Norwegian CHASE-PL project that is being broadly disseminated in Poland can be considered as a substitute for information delivered in other countries by climate services.
- ItemDrought losses in China might double between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming(Washington, DC : NAS, 2018) Su, Buda; Huang, Jinlong; Fischer, Thomas; Wang, Yanjun; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Zhai, Jianqing; Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zeng, Xiaofan; Wang, Guojie; Tao, Hui; Gemmer, Marco; Li, Xiucang; Jiang, TongWe project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and “intensity-loss rate” function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020–2039 and 2040–2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 °C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986–2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006–2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 °C warming.