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- ItemClimate change and international migration: Exploring the macroeconomic channel(San Francisco, California, US : PLOS, 2022) Rikani, Albano; Frieler, Katja; Schewe, JacobInternational migration patterns, at the global level, can to a large extent be explained through economic factors in origin and destination countries. On the other hand, it has been shown that global climate change is likely to affect economic development over the coming decades. Here, we demonstrate how these future climate impacts on national income levels could alter the global migration landscape. Using an empirically calibrated global migration model, we investigate two separate mechanisms. The first is through destination-country income, which has been shown consistently to have a positive effect on immigration. As countries' income levels relative to each other are projected to change in the future both due to different rates of economic growth and due to different levels of climate change impacts, the relative distribution of immigration across destination countries also changes as a result, all else being equal. Second, emigration rates have been found to have a complex, inverted U-shaped dependence on origin-country income. Given the available migration flow data, it is unclear whether this dependence-found in spatio-temporal panel data-also pertains to changes in a given migration flow over time. If it does, then climate change will additionally affect migration patterns through origin countries' emigration rates, as the relative and absolute positions of countries on the migration "hump" change. We illustrate these different possibilities, and the corresponding effects of 3°C global warming (above pre-industrial) on global migration patterns, using climate model projections and two different methods for estimating climate change effects on macroeconomic development.
- ItemAssessing agreement between preclinical magnetic resonance imaging and histology: An evaluation of their image qualities and quantitative results(San Francisco, California, US : PLOS, 2017) Elschner, Cindy; Korn, Paula; Hauptstock, Maria; Schulz, Matthias C.; Range, Ursula; Jünger, Diana; Scheler, UlrichOne consequence of demographic change is the increasing demand for biocompatible materials for use in implants and prostheses. This is accompanied by a growing number of experimental animals because the interactions between new biomaterials and its host tissue have to be investigated. To evaluate novel materials and engineered tissues the use of nondestructive imaging modalities have been identified as a strategic priority. This provides the opportunity for studying interactions repeatedly with individual animals, along with the advantages of reduced biological variability and decreased number of laboratory animals. However, histological techniques are still the golden standard in preclinical biomaterial research. The present article demonstrates a detailed method comparison between histology and magnetic resonance imaging. This includes the presentation of their image qualities as well as the detailed statistical analysis for assessing agreement between quantitative measures. Exemplarily, the bony ingrowth of tissue engineered bone substitutes for treatment of a cleft-like maxillary bone defect has been evaluated. By using a graphical concordance analysis the mean difference between MRI results and histomorphometrical measures has been examined. The analysis revealed a slightly but significant bias in the case of the bone volume ðbiasHisto MRI: Bonevolume = 2: 40 %, p < 0: 005) and a clearly significant deviation for the remaining defect width ðbiasHisto MRI: Defectwidth = 6: 73 %, p 0: 005Þ: But the study although showed a considerable effect of the analyzed section position to the quantitative result. It could be proven, that the bias of the data sets was less originated due to the imaging modalities, but mainly on the evaluation of different slice positions. The article demonstrated that method comparisons not always need the use of an independent animal study, additionally.
- ItemA human development framework for CO 2 reductions(San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2011) Costa, L.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J.P.Although developing countries are called to participate in CO 2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO 2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300 Gt of cumulative CO 2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20 % to 30 % of previously calculated CO 2 budgets limiting global warming to 2°C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO 2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2°C target after a particular development threshold is reached. For example, in each time step of five years, countries with an HDI of 0.85 would need to reduce their per capita emissions by approx. 17% and countries with an HDI of 0.9 by 33 %. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100 Gt of CO 2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2°C.