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Author: Amon, Thomas × End date: 2023 × Start date: 2021 × Start date: 2020 × Has files: Yes × Subject: Greenhouse gas ×

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    Comparison of Methane Emission Patterns from Dairy Housings with Solid and Slatted Floors at Two Locations
    (Basel : MDPI, 2022) Hempel, Sabrina; Janke, David; Losand, Bernd; Zeyer, Kerstin; Zähner, Michael; Mohn, Joachim; Amon, Thomas; Schrade, Sabine
    Methane (CH4) emissions from dairy husbandry are a hot topic in the context of active climate protection, where housing systems with slatted floors and slurry storage inside are in general expected to emit more than systems with solid floors. There are multiple factors, including climate conditions, that modulate the emission pattern. In this study, we investigated interrelations between CH4 emission patterns and climate conditions as well as differences between farm locations versus floor effects. We considered three data sets with 265, 264 and 275 hourly emission values from two housing systems (one slatted, one solid floor) in Switzerland and one system with solid floors in Germany. Each data set incorporated measurements in summer, winter and a transition season. The average CH4 emission was highest for the slatted floor system. For the solid floor systems, CH4 emissions at the Swiss location were around 30% higher compared to the German location. The shape of the distributions for the two solid floor systems was rather similar but very different from the distribution for the slatted floor system, which showed higher prevalence for extreme emissions. Rank correlations, which measure the degree of similarity between two rankings in terms of linear relation, were not able to detect dependencies at the selected significance level. In contrast, mutual information, which measures more general statistical dependencies in terms of shared information, revealed highly significant dependencies for almost all variable pairs. The weakest statistical relation was found between winds speed and CH4 emission, but the convection regime was found to play a key role. Clustering was consistent among the three data sets with five typical clusters related to high/low temperature and wind speed, respectively, as well as in some cases to morning and evening hours. Our analysis showed that despite the disparate and often insignificant correlation between environmental variables and CH4 emission, there is a strong relation between both, which shapes the emission pattern in many aspects much more in addition to differences in the floor type. Although a clear distinction of high and low emission condition clusters based on the selected environmental variables was not possible, trends were clearly visible. Further research with larger data sets is advisable to verify the detected trends and enable prognoses for husbandry systems under different climate conditions.
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    Supervised Machine Learning to Assess Methane Emissions of a Dairy Building with Natural Ventilation
    (Basel : MDPI, 2020) Hempel, Sabrina; Adolphs, Julian; Landwehr, Niels; Willink, Dilya; Janke, David; Amon, Thomas
    A reliable quantification of greenhouse gas emissions is a basis for the development of adequate mitigation measures. Protocols for emission measurements and data analysis approaches to extrapolate to accurate annual emission values are a substantial prerequisite in this context. We systematically analyzed the benefit of supervised machine learning methods to project methane emissions from a naturally ventilated cattle building with a concrete solid floor and manure scraper located in Northern Germany. We took into account approximately 40 weeks of hourly emission measurements and compared model predictions using eight regression approaches, 27 different sampling scenarios and four measures of model accuracy. Data normalization was applied based on median and quartile range. A correlation analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of individual features. This indicated only a very weak linear relation between the methane emission and features that are typically used to predict methane emission values of naturally ventilated barns. It further highlighted the added value of including day-time and squared ambient temperature as features. The error of the predicted emission values was in general below 10%. The results from Gaussian processes, ordinary multilinear regression and neural networks were least robust. More robust results were obtained with multilinear regression with regularization, support vector machines and particularly the ensemble methods gradient boosting and random forest. The latter had the added value to be rather insensitive against the normalization procedure. In the case of multilinear regression, also the removal of not significantly linearly related variables (i.e., keeping only the day-time component) led to robust modeling results. We concluded that measurement protocols with 7 days and six measurement periods can be considered sufficient to model methane emissions from the dairy barn with solid floor with manure scraper, particularly when periods are distributed over the year with a preference for transition periods. Features should be normalized according to median and quartile range and must be carefully selected depending on the modeling approach.