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- ItemGreenhouse gas effects on the solar cycle response of water vapour and noctilucent clouds(Katlenburg, Lindau : Copernicus, 2023) Vellalassery, Ashique; Baumgarten, Gerd; Grygalashvyly, Mykhaylo; Lübken, Franz-JosefThe responses of water vapour (H2O) and noctilucent clouds (NLCs) to the solar cycle are studied using the Leibniz Institute for Middle Atmosphere (LIMA) model and the Mesospheric Ice Microphysics And tranSport (MIMAS) model. NLCs are sensitive to the solar cycle because their formation depends on background temperature and the H2O concentration. The solar cycle affects the H2O concentration in the upper mesosphere mainly in two ways: directly through the photolysis and, at the time and place of NLC formation, indirectly through temperature changes. We found that H2O concentration correlates positively with the temperature changes due to the solar cycle at altitudes above about 82 km, where NLCs form. The photolysis effect leads to an anti-correlation of H2O concentration and solar Lyman-α radiation, which gets even more pronounced at altitudes below ∼83 km when NLCs are present. We studied the H2O response to Lyman-α variability for the period 1992 to 2018, including the two most recent solar cycles. The amplitude of Lyman-α variation decreased by about 40 % in the period 2005 to 2018 compared to the preceding solar cycle, resulting in a lower H2O response in the late period. We investigated the effect of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the H2O response throughout the solar cycle by performing model runs with and without increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). The increase of methane and carbon dioxide amplifies the response of water vapour to the solar variability. Applying the geometry of satellite observations, we find a missing response when averaging over altitudes of 80 to 85 km, where H2O has a positive response and a negative response (depending on altitude), which largely cancel each other out. One main finding is that, during NLCs, the solar cycle response of H2O strongly depends on altitude.
- ItemLong term trends of mesopheric ice layers: A model study(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 2021) Lübken, Franz-Josef; Baumgarten, Gerd; Berger, UweTrends derived from the Leibniz-Institute Middle Atmosphere Model (LIMA) and the MIMAS ice particle model (Mesospheric Ice Microphysics And tranSport model) are presented for a period of 138 years (1871–2008) and for middle, high, and arctic latitudes, namely 58°N, 69°N, and 78°N, respectively. We focus on the analysis of mesospheric ice layers (NLC, noctilucent clouds) in the main summer season (July) and on yearly mean values. Model runs with and without an increase of carbon dioxide and water vapor (from methane oxidation) concentrations are performed. Trends are most prominent after ~1960 when the increase of both CO2 and H2O accelerates. It is important to distinguish between tendencies on geometric altitudes and on given pressure levels converted to altitudes (‘pressure altitudes’). Negative trends of (geometric) NLC altitudes are primarily due to cooling below NLC altitudes caused by CO2 increase. Increases of ice particle radii and NLC brightness with time are mainly caused by an enhancement of water vapor. Several ice layer and background parameter trends are similar at high and arctic latitudes but are substantially different at middle latitudes. This concerns, for example, occurrence rates, ice water content (IWC), and number of ice particles in a column. Considering the time period after 1960, geometric altitudes of NLC decrease by approximately 260 m per decade, and brightness increases by roughly 50% (1960–2008), independent of latitude. NLC altitudes decrease by approximately 15–20 m per increase of CO2 by 1 ppmv. The number of ice particles in a column and also at the altitude of maximum backscatter is nearly constant with time. At all latitudes, yearly mean NLC appear at altitudes where temperatures are close to 145±1 K. Ice particles are present nearly all the time at high and arctic latitudes, but are much less common at middle latitudes. Ice water content and maximum backscatter (βmax) are highly correlated, where the slope depends on latitude. This allows to combine data sets from satellites and lidars. Furthermore, IWC and the concentration of water vapor at βmax are also strongly correlated. Nearly all trends depend on a lower limit applied for βmax, e.g., IWC and occurrence rates. Results from LIMA/MIMAS are in very good agreement with observations.
- ItemGlobal perturbation of stratospheric water and aerosol burden by Hunga eruption(London : Springer Nature, 2022) Khaykin, Sergey; Podglajen, Aurelien; Ploeger, Felix; Grooß, Jens-Uwe; Tence, Florent; Bekki, Slimane; Khlopenkov, Konstantin; Bedka, Kristopher; Rieger, Landon; Baron, Alexandre; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Legras, Bernard; Sellitto, Pasquale; Sakai, Tetsu; Barnes, John; Uchino, Osamu; Morino, Isamu; Nagai, Tomohiro; Wing, Robin; Baumgarten, Gerd; Gerding, Michael; Duflot, Valentin; Payen, Guillaume; Jumelet, Julien; Querel, Richard; Liley, Ben; Bourassa, Adam; Clouser, Benjamin; Feofilov, Artem; Hauchecorne, Alain; Ravetta, FrançoisThe eruption of the submarine Hunga volcano in January 2022 was associated with a powerful blast that injected volcanic material to altitudes up to 58 km. From a combination of various types of satellite and ground-based observations supported by transport modeling, we show evidence for an unprecedented increase in the global stratospheric water mass by 13% relative to climatological levels, and a 5-fold increase of stratospheric aerosol load, the highest in the last three decades. Owing to the extreme injection altitude, the volcanic plume circumnavigated the Earth in only 1 week and dispersed nearly pole-to-pole in three months. The unique nature and magnitude of the global stratospheric perturbation by the Hunga eruption ranks it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observation era, with a range of potential long-lasting repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate.