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Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios
2015, Wiebe, Keith, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Sands, Ronald, Tabeau, Andrzej, van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, Biewald, Anne, Bodirsky, Benjamin, Islam, Shahnila, Kavallari, Aikaterini, Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Müller, Christoph, Popp, Alexander, Robertson, Richard, Robinson, Sherman, van Meijl, Hans, Willenbockel, Dirk
Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. We find that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.
Nachhaltiges Wassermanagement in einer globalisierten Welt : Schlussbericht ; Laufzeit des Vorhabens: 01.04.2010 - 31.06.2013
2013, Biewald, Anne
[no abstract available]
Large-scale bioenergy production: How to resolve sustainability trade-offs?
2018, Humpenöder, Florian, Popp, Alexander, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Weindl, Isabelle, Biewald, Anne, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Dietrich, Jan Philipp, Klein, David, Kreidenweis, Ulrich, Müller, Christoph, Rolinski, Susanne, Stevanovic, Miodrag
Large-scale 2nd generation bioenergy deployment is a key element of 1.5 °C and 2 °C transformation pathways. However, large-scale bioenergy production might have negative sustainability implications and thus may conflict with the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) agenda. Here, we carry out a multi-criteria sustainability assessment of large-scale bioenergy crop production throughout the 21st century (300 EJ in 2100) using a global land-use model. Our analysis indicates that large-scale bioenergy production without complementary measures results in negative effects on the following sustainability indicators: deforestation, CO2 emissions from land-use change, nitrogen losses, unsustainable water withdrawals and food prices. One of our main findings is that single-sector environmental protection measures next to large-scale bioenergy production are prone to involve trade-offs among these sustainability indicators—at least in the absence of more efficient land or water resource use. For instance, if bioenergy production is accompanied by forest protection, deforestation and associated emissions (SDGs 13 and 15) decline substantially whereas food prices (SDG 2) increase. However, our study also shows that this trade-off strongly depends on the development of future food demand. In contrast to environmental protection measures, we find that agricultural intensification lowers some side-effects of bioenergy production substantially (SDGs 13 and 15) without generating new trade-offs—at least among the sustainability indicators considered here. Moreover, our results indicate that a combination of forest and water protection schemes, improved fertilization efficiency, and agricultural intensification would reduce the side-effects of bioenergy production most comprehensively. However, although our study includes more sustainability indicators than previous studies on bioenergy side-effects, our study represents only a small subset of all indicators relevant for the SDG agenda. Based on this, we argue that the development of policies for regulating externalities of large-scale bioenergy production should rely on broad sustainability assessments to discover potential trade-offs with the SDG agenda before implementation.
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
2016, Kriegler, Elmar, Bauer, Nico, Popp, Alexander, Humpenöder, Florian, Leimbach, Marian, Strefler, Jessica, Baumstark, Lavinia, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Hilaire, Jérôme, Klein, David, Mouratiadou, Ioanna, Weindl, Isabelle, Bertram, Christoph, Dietrich, Jan-Philipp, Luderer, Gunnar, Pehl, Michaja, Pietzcker, Robert, Piontek, Franziska, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Biewald, Anne, Bonsch, Markus, Giannousakis, Anastasis, Kreidenweis, Ulrich, Müller, Christoph, Rolinski, Susanne, Schultes, Anselm, Schwanitz, Jana, Stevanovic, Miodrag, Calvin, Katherine, Emmerling, Johannes, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Edenhofer, Ottmar
This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.