Search Results
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
2016, Kriegler, Elmar, Bauer, Nico, Popp, Alexander, Humpenöder, Florian, Leimbach, Marian, Strefler, Jessica, Baumstark, Lavinia, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Hilaire, Jérôme, Klein, David, Mouratiadou, Ioanna, Weindl, Isabelle, Bertram, Christoph, Dietrich, Jan-Philipp, Luderer, Gunnar, Pehl, Michaja, Pietzcker, Robert, Piontek, Franziska, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Biewald, Anne, Bonsch, Markus, Giannousakis, Anastasis, Kreidenweis, Ulrich, Müller, Christoph, Rolinski, Susanne, Schultes, Anselm, Schwanitz, Jana, Stevanovic, Miodrag, Calvin, Katherine, Emmerling, Johannes, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Edenhofer, Ottmar
This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.
German pig farmers’ perceived agency under different nitrogen policies
2021, Stuhr, Luisa, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Jaeger-Erben, Melanie, Beier, Felicitas, Hunecke, Claudia, Collignon, Quitterie, Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Agricultural nitrogen (N) emissions represent the most substantial N source in Germany. Even though multiple policies have been introduced at the EU and German national level to reduce agriculturally sourced reactive Nitrogen (N), Germany is exceeding the target of the government's national sustainability strategy to limit N surpluses. To form a better view of the current N policy challenges, this paper seeks to identify what constrains family-managed pig farmers in Germany from adopting N-reduced farming practices. Our study applies a practice-based approach and reconstructs farmers' practice and individual perception of the possible capability to change practices (perceived agency) through problem-centred interviews. The study identifies different ideal types of farmers based on their reported farming practices and perceived agency: The first type feeling overburdened and weary of the current requirements, the second type acting based on routine and incremental improvement efforts, and the third type adapting early and inventing. However, regarding the perceived agency to adopt N-reduced farming practices our results show that all three farmer types report only low to little agency. Based on the findings, the study identifies type-specific and type-spanning constraining factors. To resolve farmers' perceived contradictions and inconsistencies which result in the unwillingness to accept further N reduction measures, we argue that policies need to address these factors. To enhance long-term paths for sustainable N-reduced farming practices, this study concludes that N policies need to shift towards outcome-oriented policies to create a collective and holistic understanding of the desired outcome while considering their embeddedness into regional and individual contexts.
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
2017, Popp, Alexander, Calvin, Katherine, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Havlik, Petr, Humpenöder, Florian, Stehfest, Elke, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Dietrich, Jan Philipp, Doelmann, Jonathan C., Gusti, Mykola, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Kyle, Page, Obersteiner, Michael, Tabeau, Andrzej, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Valin, Hugo, Waldhoff, Stephanie, Weindl, Isabelle, Wise, Marshall, Kriegler, Elmar, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Fricko, Oliver, Riahi, Keywan, Vuuren, Detlef P. van
In the future, the land system will be facing new intersecting challenges. While food demand, especially for resource-intensive livestock based commodities, is expected to increase, the terrestrial system has large potentials for climate change mitigation through improved agricultural management, providing biomass for bioenergy, and conserving or even enhancing carbon stocks of ecosystems. However, uncertainties in future socio-economic land use drivers may result in very different land-use dynamics and consequences for land-based ecosystem services. This is the first study with a systematic interpretation of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) in terms of possible land-use changes and their consequences for the agricultural system, food provision and prices as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, five alternative Integrated Assessment Models with distinctive land-use modules have been used for the translation of the SSP narratives into quantitative projections. The model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures with global agricultural land of 4900 mio ha in 2005 decreasing by 743 mio ha until 2100 at the lower (SSP1) and increasing by 1080 mio ha (SSP3) at the upper end. Greenhouse gas emissions from land use and land use change, as a direct outcome of these diverse land-use dynamics, and agricultural production systems differ strongly across SSPs (e.g. cumulative land use change emissions between 2005 and 2100 range from −54 to 402 Gt CO2). The inclusion of land-based mitigation efforts, particularly those in the most ambitious mitigation scenarios, further broadens the range of potential land futures and can strongly affect greenhouse gas dynamics and food prices. In general, it can be concluded that low demand for agricultural commodities, rapid growth in agricultural productivity and globalized trade, all most pronounced in a SSP1 world, have the potential to enhance the extent of natural ecosystems, lead to lowest greenhouse gas emissions from the land system and decrease food prices over time. The SSP-based land use pathways presented in this paper aim at supporting future climate research and provide the basis for further regional integrated assessments, biodiversity research and climate impact analysis. © 2016 The Authors
Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways
2016, Rao, Shilpa, Klimont, Zbigniew, Smith, Steven J., Van Dingenen, Rita, Dentener, Frank, Bouwman, Lex, Riahi, Keywan, Amann, Markus, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Calvin, Katherine, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gernaat, David, Havlik, Petr, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Heyes, Chris, Hilaire, Jérôme, Luderer, Gunnar, Masui, Toshihiko, Stehfest, Elke, Strefler, Jessica, van der Sluis, Sietske, Tavoni, Massimo
Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. The resulting pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. In the SSP3 and SSP4 scenarios, where economic, institutional and technological limitations slow air quality improvements, global pollutant emissions over the 21st century can be comparable to current levels. Pollutant emissions in the SSP1 scenarios fall to low levels due to the assumption of technological advances and successful global action to control emissions.