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    The limits to global-warming mitigation by terrestrial carbon removal
    (Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2017) Boysen, Lena R.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Gerten, Dieter; Heck, Vera; Lenton, Timothy M.; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
    Massive nearā€term greenhouse gas emissions reduction is a precondition for staying ā€œwell below 2Ā°Cā€ global warming as envisaged by the Paris Agreement. Furthermore, extensive terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) through managed biomass growth and subsequent carbon capture and storage is required to avoid temperature ā€œovershootā€ in most pertinent scenarios. Here, we address two major issues: First, we calculate the extent of tCDR required to ā€œrepairā€ delayed or insufficient emissions reduction policies unable to prevent global mean temperature rise of 2.5Ā°C or even 4.5Ā°C above preā€industrial level. Our results show that those tCDR measures are unable to counteract ā€œbusinessā€asā€usualā€ emissions without eliminating virtually all natural ecosystems. Even if considerable (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 [RCP4.5]) emissions reductions are assumed, tCDR with 50% storage efficiency requires >1.1ā€‰Gha of the most productive agricultural areas or the elimination of >50% of natural forests. In addition, >100ā€‰MtN/yr fertilizers would be needed to remove the roughly 320ā€‰GtC foreseen in these scenarios. Such interventions would severely compromise food production and/or biosphere functioning. Second, we reanalyze the requirements for achieving the 160ā€“190ā€‰GtC tCDR that would complement strong mitigation action (RCP2.6) in order to avoid 2Ā°C overshoot anytime. We find that a combination of high irrigation water input and/or more efficient conversion to stored carbon is necessary. In the face of severe tradeā€offs with society and the biosphere, we conclude that largeā€scale tCDR is not a viable alternative to aggressive emissions reduction. However, we argue that tCDR might serve as a valuable ā€œsupporting actorā€ for strong mitigation if sustainable schemes are established immediately.