Search Results
Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
2020, Liu, Zhu, Ciais, Philippe, Deng, Zhu, Lei, Ruixue, Davis, Steven J., Feng, Sha, Zheng, Bo, Cui, Duo, Dou, Xinyu, Zhu, Biqing, Guo, Rui, Ke, Piyu, Sun, Taochun, Lu, Chenxi, He, Pan, Wang, Yuan, Yue, Xu, Wang, Yilong, Lei, Yadong, Zhou, Hao, Cai, Zhaonan, Wu, Yuhui, Guo, Runtao, Han, Tingxuan, Xue, Jinjun, Boucher, Olivier, Boucher, Eulalie, Chevallier, Frรฉdรฉric, Tanaka, Katsumasa, Wei, Yiming, Zhong, Haiwang, Kang, Chongqing, Zhang, Ning, Chen, Bin, Xi, Fengming, Liu, Miaomiao, Brรฉon, Franรงois-Marie, Lu, Yonglong, Zhang, Qiang, Guan, Dabo, Gong, Peng, Kammen, Daniel M., He, Kebin, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting human activities, and in turn energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Here we present daily estimates of country-level CO2 emissions for different sectors based on near-real-time activity data. The key result is an abrupt 8.8% decrease in global CO2 emissions (โ1551 Mt CO2) in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. The magnitude of this decrease is larger than during previous economic downturns or World War II. The timing of emissions decreases corresponds to lockdown measures in each country. By July 1st, the pandemicโs effects on global emissions diminished as lockdown restrictions relaxed and some economic activities restarted, especially in China and several European countries, but substantial differences persist between countries, with continuing emission declines in the U.S. where coronavirus cases are still increasing substantially.
Population ageing and deaths attributable to ambient PM2ยท5 pollution: a global analysis of economic cost
2021, Yin, Hao, Brauer, Michael, Zhang, Junfeng (Jim), Cai, Wenjia, Navrud, Stรฅle, Burnett, Richard, Howard, Courtney, Deng, Zhu, Kammen, Daniel M., Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, Chen, Kai, Kan, Haidong, Chen, Zhan-Ming, Chen, Bin, Zhang, Ning, Mi, Zhifu, Coffman, D'Maris, Cohen, Aaron J., Guan, Dabo, Zhang, Qiang, Gong, Peng, Liu, Zhu
Background: The health impacts of ambient air pollution impose large costs on society. Although all people are exposed to air pollution, the older population (ie, those aged โฅ60 years) tends to be disproportionally affected. As a result, there is growing concern about the health impacts of air pollution as many countries undergo rapid population ageing. We investigated the spatial and temporal variation in the economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient air pollution and its interaction with population ageing from 2000 to 2016 at global and regional levels. Methods: In this global analysis, we developed an age-adjusted measure of the value of a statistical life-year (VSLY) to estimate the economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient PM2ยท5 pollution using Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 data and country-level socioeconomic information. First, we estimated the global age-specific and cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) attributable to PM2ยท5 pollution using the global exposure mortality model and global estimates of exposure at 0ยท1ยฐ ร 0ยท1ยฐ (about 11 km ร 11 km at the equator) resolution. Second, for each year between 2000 and 2016, we translated the YLLs within each age group into a health-related cost using a country-specific, age-adjusted measure of VSLY. Third, we decomposed the major driving factors that contributed to the temporal change in health costs related to PM2ยท5. Finally, we did a sensitivity test to analyse the variability of the estimated health costs to four alternative valuation measures. We identified the uncertainty intervals (UIs) from 1000 draws of the parameters and concentrationโresponse functions by age, cause, country, and year. All economic values are reported in 2011 purchasing power parity-adjusted US dollars. All simulations were done with R, version 3.6.0. Findings: Globally, in 2016, PM2ยท5 was estimated to have caused 8ยท42 million (95% UI 6ยท50โ10ยท52) attributable deaths, which was associated with 163ยท68 million (116ยท03โ219ยท44) YLLs. In 2016, the global economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient PM2ยท5 pollution for the older population was US$2ยท40 trillion (1ยท89โ2ยท93) accounting for 59% (59โ60) of the cost for the total population ($4ยท09 trillion [3ยท19โ5ยท05]). The economic cost per capita for the older population was $2739 (2160โ3345) in 2016, which was 10 times that of the younger population (ie, those aged <60 years). By assessing the factors that contributed to economic costs, we found that increases in these factors changed the total economic cost by 77% for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, 21% for population ageing, 16% for population growth, โ41% for age-specific mortality, and โ0ยท4% for PM2ยท5 exposure. Interpretation: The economic cost of ambient PM2ยท5 borne by the older population almost doubled between 2000 and 2016, driven primarily by GDP growth, population ageing, and population growth. Compared with younger people, air pollution leads to disproportionately higher health costs among older people, even after accounting for their relatively shorter life expectancy and increased disability. As the world's population is ageing, the disproportionate health cost attributable to ambient PM2ยท5 pollution potentially widens the health inequities for older people. Countries with severe air pollution and rapid ageing rates need to take immediate actions to improve air quality. In addition, strategies aimed at enhancing health-care services, especially targeting the older population, could be beneficial for reducing the health costs of ambient air pollution. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, and Qiushi Foundation.