2020, Yin, Yuanyuan, Wang, Lei, Wang, Zhongjing, Tang, Qiuhong, Piao, Shilong, Chen, Deliang, Xia, Jun, Conradt, Tobias, Liu, Junguo, Wada, Yoshihide, Cai, Ximing, Xie, Zhenghui, Duan, Qingyun, Li, Xiuping, Zhou, Jing, Zhang, Jianyun

With the increasing pressure from population growth and economic development, northern China (NC) faces a grand challenge of water scarcity, which can be further exacerbated by climatic and societal changes. The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to mitigate the water scarcity in NC. However, few studies have quantified the impact of the SNWD on water scarcity within the context of climatic and societal changes and its potential effects on economic and agricultural food in the region. We used water supply stress index (WaSSI) to quantify water scarcity within the context of environmental change in NC and developed a method to estimate the economic and agricultural impacts of the SNWD. Focuses were put on alleviating the water supply shortage and economic and agricultural benefits for the water-receiving NC. We find that societal changes, especially economic growth, are the major contributors to water scarcity in NC during 2009–2099. To completely mitigate the water scarcity of NC, at least an additional water supply of 13 billion m3/year (comparable to the annual diversion water by SNWD Central Route) will be necessary. Although SNWD alone cannot provide the full solution to NC's water shortage in next few decades, it can significantly alleviate the water supply stress in NC (particularly Beijing), considerably increasing the agricultural production (more than 115 Tcal/year) and bringing economic benefits (more than 51 billion RMB/year) through supplying industrial and domestic water use. Additionally, the transfer project could have impacts on the ecological environment in the exporting regions. ©2020. The Authors.

2023, Conradt, Tobias, Engelhardt, Henry, Menz, Christoph, Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., Farizo, Begoña Alvarez, Peña-Angulo, Dhais, Domínguez-Castro, Fernando, Eklundh, Lars, Jin, Hongxiao, Boincean, Boris, Murphy, Conor, López-Moreno, J. Ignacio

The 2018–2019 Central European drought was probably the most extreme in Germany since the early sixteenth century. We assess the multiple consequences of the drought for natural systems, the economy and human health in the German part of the Elbe River basin, an area of 97,175 km2 including the cities of Berlin and Hamburg and contributing about 18% to the German GDP. We employ meteorological, hydrological and socio-economic data to build a comprehensive picture of the drought severity, its multiple effects and cross-sectoral consequences in the basin. Time series of different drought indices illustrate the severity of the 2018–2019 drought and how it progressed from meteorological water deficits via soil water depletion towards low groundwater levels and river runoff, and losses in vegetation productivity. The event resulted in severe production losses in agriculture (minus 20–40% for staple crops) and forestry (especially through forced logging of damaged wood: 25.1 million tons in 2018–2020 compared to only 3.4 million tons in 2015–2017), while other economic sectors remained largely unaffected. However, there is no guarantee that this socio-economic stability will be sustained in future drought events; this is discussed in the light of 2022, another dry year holding the potential for a compound crisis. Given the increased probability for more intense and long-lasting droughts in most parts of Europe, this example of actual cross-sectoral drought impacts will be relevant for drought awareness and preparation planning in other regions.

2021, Wang, Lei, Song, Chunqiao, Conradt, Tobias, Rasmy, Mohamed, Li, Xiuping

[No abstract available]

2013, Conradt, Tobias, Menz, Christoph, Möhring, Jacob, Otto, Ilona M., Walter, Christiane, Wechsung, Frank

[no abstract available]