20 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 20
- ItemImpact of temperature and precipitation extremes on the flowering dates of four German wildlife shrub species(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Siegmund, Jonatan F.; Wiedermann, Marc; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.Ongoing climate change is known to cause an increase in the frequency and amplitude of local temperature and precipitation extremes in many regions of the Earth. While gradual changes in the climatological conditions have already been shown to strongly influence plant flowering dates, the question arises if and how extremes specifically impact the timing of this important phenological phase. Studying this question calls for the application of statistical methods that are tailored to the specific properties of event time series. Here, we employ event coincidence analysis, a novel statistical tool that allows assessing whether or not two types of events exhibit similar sequences of occurrences in order to systematically quantify simultaneities between meteorological extremes and the timing of the flowering of four shrub species across Germany. Our study confirms previous findings of experimental studies by highlighting the impact of early spring temperatures on the flowering of the investigated plants. However, previous studies solely based on correlation analysis do not allow deriving explicit estimates of the strength of such interdependencies without further assumptions, a gap that is closed by our analysis. In addition to direct impacts of extremely warm and cold spring temperatures, our analysis reveals statistically significant indications of an influence of temperature extremes in the autumn preceding the flowering.
- ItemTropical and mid-latitude teleconnections interacting with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a theory-guided causal effect network approach(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2020) Di Capua, Giorgia; Kretschmer, Marlene; Donner, Reik V.; van den Hurk, Bart; Vellore, Ramesh; Krishnan, Raghavan; Coumou, DimThe alternation of active and break phases in Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall at intraseasonal timescales characterizes each ISM season. Both tropical and mid-latitude drivers influence this intraseasonal ISM variability. The circumglobal teleconnection observed in boreal summer drives intraseasonal variability across the mid-latitudes, and a two-way interaction between the ISM and the circumglobal teleconnection pattern has been hypothesized. We use causal discovery algorithms to test the ISM circumglobal teleconnection hypothesis in a causal framework. A robust causal link from the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the North Atlantic region to ISM rainfall is identified, and we estimate the normalized causal effect (CE) of this link to be about 0.2 (a 1 standard deviation shift in the circumglobal teleconnection causes a 0.2 standard deviation shift in the ISM rainfall 1 week later). The ISM rainfall feeds back on the circumglobal teleconnection pattern, however weakly. Moreover, we identify a negative feedback between strong updraft located over India and the Bay of Bengal and the ISM rainfall acting at a biweekly timescale, with enhanced ISM rainfall following strong updraft by 1 week. This mechanism is possibly related to the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. The updraft has the strongest CE of 0.5, while the Madden–Julian oscillation variability has a CE of 0.2–0.3. Our results show that most of the ISM variability on weekly timescales comes from these tropical drivers, though the mid-latitude teleconnection also exerts a substantial influence. Identifying these local and remote drivers paves the way for improved subseasonal forecasts.
- ItemReconstructing Late Holocene North Atlantic atmospheric circulation changes using functional paleoclimate networks(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Franke, Jasper G.; Werner, Johannes P.; Donner, Reik V.Obtaining reliable reconstructions of long-term atmospheric circulation changes in the North Atlantic region presents a persistent challenge to contemporary paleoclimate research, which has been addressed by a multitude of recent studies. In order to contribute a novel methodological aspect to this active field, we apply here evolving functional network analysis, a recently developed tool for studying temporal changes of the spatial co-variability structure of the Earth's climate system, to a set of Late Holocene paleoclimate proxy records covering the last two millennia. The emerging patterns obtained by our analysis are related to long-term changes in the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the region, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). By comparing the time-dependent inter-regional linkage structures of the obtained functional paleoclimate network representations to a recent multi-centennial NAO reconstruction, we identify co-variability between southern Greenland, Svalbard, and Fennoscandia as being indicative of a positive NAO phase, while connections from Greenland and Fennoscandia to central Europe are more pronounced during negative NAO phases. By drawing upon this correspondence, we use some key parameters of the evolving network structure to obtain a qualitative reconstruction of the NAO long-term variability over the entire Common Era (last 2000 years) using a linear regression model trained upon the existing shorter reconstruction.
- ItemImpacts of temperature extremes on European vegetation during the growing season(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Baumbach, Lukas; Siegmund, Jonatan F.; Mittermeier, Magdalena; Donner, Reik V.Temperature is a key factor controlling plant growth and vitality in the temperate climates of the mid-latitudes like in vast parts of the European continent. Beyond the effect of average conditions, the timings and magnitudes of temperature extremes play a particularly crucial role, which needs to be better understood in the context of projected future rises in the frequency and/or intensity of such events. In this work, we employ event coincidence analysis (ECA) to quantify the likelihood of simultaneous occurrences of extremes in daytime land surface temperature anomalies (LSTAD) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We perform this analysis for entire Europe based upon remote sensing data, differentiating between three periods corresponding to different stages of plant development during the growing season. In addition, we analyze the typical elevation and land cover type of the regions showing significantly large event coincidences rates to identify the most severely affected vegetation types. Our results reveal distinct spatio-temporal impact patterns in terms of extraordinarily large co-occurrence rates between several combinations of temperature and NDVI extremes. Croplands are among the most frequently affected land cover types, while elevation is found to have only a minor effect on the spatial distribution of corresponding extreme weather impacts. These findings provide important insights into the vulnerability of European terrestrial ecosystems to extreme temperature events and demonstrate how event-based statistics like ECA can provide a valuable perspective on environmental nexuses.
- ItemDisentangling nonlinear geomagnetic variability during magnetic storms and quiescence by timescale dependent recurrence properties(Les Ulis : EDP Sciences, 2020) Alberti, Tommaso; Lekscha, Jaqueline; Consolini, Giuseppe; De Michelis, Paola; Donner, Reik V.Understanding the complex behavior of the near-Earth electromagnetic environment is one of the main challenges of Space Weather studies. This includes both the correct characterization of the different physical mechanisms responsible for its configuration and dynamics as well as the efforts which are needed for a correct forecasting of several phenomena. By using a nonlinear multi-scale dynamical systems approach, we provide here new insights into the scale-to-scale dynamical behavior of both quiet and disturbed periods of geomagnetic activity. The results show that a scale-dependent dynamical transition occurs when moving from short to long timescales, i.e., from fast to slow dynamical processes, the latter being characterized by a more regular behavior, while more dynamical anomalies are found in the behavior of the fast component. This suggests that different physical processes are typical for both dynamical regimes: the fast component, being characterized by a more chaotic and less predictable behavior, can be related to the internal dynamical state of the near-Earth electromagnetic environment, while the slow component seems to be less chaotic and associated with the directly driven processes related to the interplanetary medium variability. Moreover, a clear difference has been found between quiet and disturbed periods, the former being more complex than the latter. These findings support the view that, for a correct forecasting in the framework of Space Weather studies, more attention needs to be devoted to the identification of proxies describing the internal dynamical state of the near-Earth electromagnetic environment. © T. Alberti et al., Published by EDP Sciences 2020.
- ItemEvolving climate network perspectives on global surface air temperature effects of ENSO and strong volcanic eruptions(Berlin ; Heidelberg : Springer, 2021) Kittel, Tim; Ciemer, Catrin; Lotfi, Nastaran; Peron, Thomas; Rodrigues, Francisco; Kurths, Jürgen; Donner, Reik V.Episodically occurring internal (climatic) and external (non-climatic) disruptions of normal climate variability are known to both affect spatio-temporal patterns of global surface air temperatures (SAT) at time-scales between multiple weeks and several years. The magnitude and spatial manifestation of the corresponding effects depend strongly on the specific type of perturbation and may range from weak spatially coherent yet regionally confined trends to a global reorganization of co-variability due to the excitation or inhibition of certain large-scale teleconnectivity patterns. Here, we employ functional climate network analysis to distinguish qualitatively the global climate responses to different phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from those to the three largest volcanic eruptions since the mid-20th century as the two most prominent types of recurrent climate disruptions. Our results confirm that strong ENSO episodes can cause a temporary breakdown of the normal hierarchical organization of the global SAT field, which is characterized by the simultaneous emergence of consistent regional temperature trends and strong teleconnections. By contrast, the most recent strong volcanic eruptions exhibited primarily regional effects rather than triggering additional long-range teleconnections that would not have been present otherwise. By relying on several complementary network characteristics, our results contribute to a better understanding of climate network properties by differentiating between climate variability reorganization mechanisms associated with internal variability versus such triggered by non-climatic abrupt and localized perturbations.
- ItemCoupled network analysis revealing global monthly scale co-variability patterns between sea-surface temperatures and precipitation in dependence on the ENSO state(Berlin ; Heidelberg : Springer, 2021) Ekhtiari, Nikoo; Ciemer, Catrin; Kirsch, Catrin; Donner, Reik V.The Earth’s climate is a complex system characterized by multi-scale nonlinear interrelationships between different subsystems like atmosphere and ocean. Among others, the mutual interdependence between sea surface temperatures (SST) and precipitation (PCP) has important implications for ecosystems and societies in vast parts of the globe but is still far from being completely understood. In this context, the globally most relevant coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomenon is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which strongly affects large-scale SST variability as well as PCP patterns all around the globe. Although significant achievements have been made to foster our understanding of ENSO’s global teleconnections and climate impacts, there are many processes associated with ocean–atmosphere interactions in the tropics and extratropics, as well as remote effects of SST changes on PCP patterns that have not yet been unveiled or fully understood. In this work, we employ coupled climate network analysis for characterizing dominating global co-variability patterns between SST and PCP at monthly timescales. Our analysis uncovers characteristic seasonal patterns associated with both local and remote statistical linkages and demonstrates their dependence on the type of the current ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña or neutral phase). Thereby, our results allow identifying local interactions as well as teleconnections between SST variations and global precipitation patterns.
- ItemAn early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2020) Ciemer, Catrin; Rehm, Lars; Kurths, Jürgen; Donner, Reik V.; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Boers, NiklasDroughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.
- ItemStatistical mechanics and information-theoretic perspectives on complexity in the Earth system(Basel : MDPI, 2013) Balasis, Georgios; Donner, Reik V.; Potirakis, Stelios M.; Runge, Jakob; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Eftaxias, Konstantinos; Kurths, JürgenThis review provides a summary of methods originated in (non-equilibrium) statistical mechanics and information theory, which have recently found successful applications to quantitatively studying complexity in various components of the complex system Earth. Specifically, we discuss two classes of methods: (i) entropies of different kinds (e.g., on the one hand classical Shannon and R´enyi entropies, as well as non-extensive Tsallis entropy based on symbolic dynamics techniques and, on the other hand, approximate entropy, sample entropy and fuzzy entropy); and (ii) measures of statistical interdependence and causality (e.g., mutual information and generalizations thereof, transfer entropy, momentary information transfer). We review a number of applications and case studies utilizing the above-mentioned methodological approaches for studying contemporary problems in some exemplary fields of the Earth sciences, highlighting the potentials of different techniques.
- ItemMeridionally Extending Anomalous Wave Train over Asia During Breaks in the Indian Summer Monsoon([Cham] : Springer International Publishing, 2019) Umakanth, Uppara; Vellore, Ramesh K.; Krishnan, R.; Choudhury, Ayantika Dey; Bisht, Jagat S.H.; Di Capua, Giorgia; Coumou, Dim; Donner, Reik V.Anomalous interactions between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and subtropical westerlies are known to trigger breaks in the ISM on subseasonal time-scales, characterised by a pattern of suppressed rainfall over central-north India, and enhanced rainfall over the foothills of the central–eastern Himalayas (CEH). An intriguing feature during ISM breaks is the formation of a mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation anomaly extending over the subtropical and mid-latitude areas of the Asian continent. This study investigates the mechanism of the aforesaid Asian continental mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation (ACMCC) anomaly using observations and simplified model experiments. The results of our study indicate that the ACMCC during ISM breaks is part of a larger meridional wave train comprising of alternating anticyclonic and cyclonic anomalies that extend poleward from the monsoon region to the Arctic. A lead–lag analysis of mid-tropospheric circulation anomalies suggests that the meridional wave-train generation is linked to latent heating (LH) anomalies over the CEH foothills, Indo-China, and the Indian landmass during ISM breaks. By conducting sensitivity experiments using a simplified global atmospheric general circulation model forced with satellite-derived three-dimensional LH, it is demonstrated that the combined effects of the enhanced LH over the CEH foothills and Indo-China and decreased LH over the Indian landmass during ISM breaks are pivotal for generating the poleward extending meridional wave train and the ACMCC anomaly. At the same time, the spatial extent of the mid-latitude cyclonic anomaly over Far-East Asia is also influenced by the anomalous LH over central–eastern China. While the present findings provide interesting insights into the role of LH anomalies during ISM breaks on the poleward extending meridional wave train, the ACMCC anomaly is found to have important ramifications on the daily rainfall extremes over the Indo-China region. It is revealed from the present analysis that the frequency of extreme rainfall occurrences over Indo-China shows a twofold increase during ISM break periods as compared to active ISM conditions. © 2019, The Author(s).