6 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
- ItemNational contributions for decarbonizing the world economy in line with the G7 agreement(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2016) du Pont, Yann Robiou; Jeffery, M. Louise; Gütschow, Johannes; Christoff, Peter; Meinshausen, MalteIn June 2015, the G7 agreed to two global mitigation goals: 'a decarbonization of the global economy over the course of this century' and 'the upper end of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommendation of 40%–70% reductions by 2050 compared to 2010'. These IPCC recommendations aim to preserve a likely (>66%) chance of limiting global warming to 2 °C but are not necessarily consistent with the stronger ambition of the subsequent Paris Agreement of 'holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels'. The G7 did not specify global or national emissions scenarios consistent with its own agreement. Here we identify global cost-optimal emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models that match the G7 agreement. These scenarios have global 2030 emissions targets of 11%–43% below 2010, global net negative CO2 emissions starting between 2056 and 2080, and some exhibit net negative greenhouse gas emissions from 2080 onwards. We allocate emissions from these global scenarios to countries according to five equity approaches representative of the five equity categories presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (IPCCAR5): 'capability', 'equality', 'responsibility-capability-need', 'equal cumulative per capita' and 'staged approaches'. Our results show that G7 members' Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDCs) mitigation targets are in line with a grandfathering approach but lack ambition to meet various visions of climate justice. The INDCs of China and Russia fall short of meeting the requirements of any allocation approach. Depending on how their INDCs are evaluated, the INDCs of India and Brazil can match some equity approaches evaluated in this study.
- ItemNDCmitiQ v1.0.0: a tool to quantify and analyse greenhouse gas mitigation targets(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2021-9-14) Günther, Annika; Gütschow, Johannes; Jeffery, Mairi LouiseParties to the Paris Agreement (PA, 2015) outline their planned contributions towards achieving the PA temperature goal to “hold […] the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ∘C” (Article 2.1.a, PA) in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Most NDCs include targets to mitigate national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which need quantifications to assess i.a. whether the current NDCs collectively put us on track to reach the PA temperature goals or the gap in ambition to do so. We implemented the new open-source tool “NDCmitiQ” to quantify GHG mitigation targets defined in the NDCs for all countries with quantifiable targets on a disaggregated level and to create corresponding national and global emissions pathways. In light of the 5-year update cycle of NDCs and the global stocktake, the quantification of NDCs is an ongoing task for which NDCmitiQ can be used, as calculations can easily be updated upon submission of new NDCs. In this paper, we describe the methodologies behind NDCmitiQ and quantification challenges we encountered by addressing a wide range of aspects, including target types and the input data from within NDCs; external time series of national emissions, population, and GDP; uniform approach vs. country specifics; share of national emissions covered by NDCs; how to deal with the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) component and the conditionality of pledges; and establishing pathways from single-year targets. For use in NDCmitiQ, we furthermore construct an emissions data set from the baseline emissions provided in the NDCs. Example use cases show how the tool can help to analyse targets on a national, regional, or global scale and to quantify uncertainties caused by a lack of clarity in the NDCs. Results confirm that the conditionality of targets and assumptions about economic growth dominate uncertainty in mitigated emissions on a global scale, which are estimated as 48.9–56.1 Gt CO2 eq. AR4 for 2030 (10th/90th percentiles, median: 51.8 Gt CO2 eq. AR4; excluding LULUCF and bunker fuels; submissions until 17 April 2020 and excluding the USA). We estimate that 77 % of global 2017 emissions were emitted from sectors and gases covered by these NDCs. Addressing all updated NDCs submitted by 31 December 2020 results in an estimated 45.6–54.1 Gt CO2 eq. AR4 (median: 49.6 Gt CO2 eq. AR4, now including the USA again) and increased coverage.
- ItemThe PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Gütschow, Johannes; Jeffery, M. Louise; Gieseke, Robert; Gebel, Ronja; Stevens, David; Krapp, Mario; Rocha, MarciaTo assess the history of greenhouse gas emissions and individual countries' contributions to emissions and climate change, detailed historical data are needed. We combine several published datasets to create a comprehensive set of emissions pathways for each country and Kyoto gas, covering the years 1850 to 2014 with yearly values, for all UNFCCC member states and most non-UNFCCC territories. The sectoral resolution is that of the main IPCC 1996 categories. Additional time series of CO2 are available for energy and industry subsectors. Country-resolved data are combined from different sources and supplemented using year-to-year growth rates from regionally resolved sources and numerical extrapolations to complete the dataset. Regional deforestation emissions are downscaled to country level using estimates of the deforested area obtained from potential vegetation and simulations of agricultural land. In this paper, we discuss the data sources and methods used and present the resulting dataset, including its limitations and uncertainties. The dataset is available from doi:10.5880/PIK.2016.003 and can be viewed on the website accompanying this paper (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/primap-live/primap-hist/).
- ItemPRIMAP-crf: UNFCCC CRF data in IPCC 2006 categories(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernics Publications, 2018) Jeffery, M. Louise; Gütschow, Johannes; Gieseke, Robert; Gebel, RonjaAll Annex I Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to report domestic emissions on an annual basis in a “Common Reporting Format” (CRF). In 2015, the CRF data reporting was updated to follow the more recent 2006 guidelines from the IPCC and the structure of the reporting tables was modified accordingly. However, the hierarchical categorisation of data in the IPCC 2006 guidelines is not readily extracted from the reporting tables. In this paper, we present the PRIMAP-crf data as a re-constructed hierarchical dataset according to the IPCC 2006 guidelines. Furthermore, the data are organised in a series of tables containing all available countries and years for each individual gas and category reported. It is therefore readily usable for climate policy assessment, such as the quantification of emissions reduction targets. In addition to single gases, the Kyoto basket of greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O, CH4, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, and NF3) is provided according to multiple global warming potentials. The dataset was produced using the PRIMAP emissions module. Key processing steps include extracting data from submitted CRF Excel spreadsheets, mapping CRF categories to IPCC 2006 categories, constructing missing categories from available data, and aggregating single gases to gas baskets. Finally, we describe key aspects of the data with relevance for climate policy: the contribution of NF3 to national totals, changes in data reported over subsequent years, and issues or difficulties encountered when processing currently available data. The processed data are available under an Open Data CC BY 4.0 license, and are available at https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2018.001.
- ItemGreenhouse gas emissions from food systems: building the evidence base(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2021-6-8) Tubiello, Francesco N; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Conchedda, Giulia; Karl, Kevin; Gütschow, Johannes; Xueyao, Pan; Obli-Laryea, Griffiths; Wanner, Nathan; Qiu, Sally Yue; De Barros, Julio; Flammini, Alessandro; Mencos-Contreras, Erik; Souza, Leonardo; Quadrelli, Roberta; Heiðarsdóttir, Hörn Halldórudóttir; Benoit, Philippe; Hayek, Matthew; Sandalow, DavidNew estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the food system were developed at the country level, for the period 1990–2018, integrating data from crop and livestock production, on-farm energy use, land use and land use change, domestic food transport and food waste disposal. With these new country-level components in place, and by adding global and regional estimates of energy use in food supply chains, we estimate that total GHG emissions from the food system were about 16 CO2eq yr−1 in 2018, or one-third of the global anthropogenic total. Three quarters of these emissions, 13 Gt CO2eq yr−1, were generated either within the farm gate or in pre- and post-production activities, such as manufacturing, transport, processing, and waste disposal. The remainder was generated through land use change at the conversion boundaries of natural ecosystems to agricultural land. Results further indicate that pre- and post-production emissions were proportionally more important in developed than in developing countries, and that during 1990–2018, land use change emissions decreased while pre- and post-production emissions increased. We also report results on a per capita basis, showing world total food systems per capita emissions decreasing during 1990–2018 from 2.9 to 2.2 t CO2eq cap−1, with per capita emissions in developed countries about twice those in developing countries in 2018. Our findings also highlight that conventional IPCC categories, used by countries to report emissions in the National GHG inventory, systematically underestimate the contribution of the food system to total anthropogenic emissions. We provide a comparative mapping of food system categories and activities in order to better quantify food-related emissions in national reporting and identify mitigation opportunities across the entire food system.
- ItemResponsibility of major emitters for country-level warming and extreme hot years(London : Springer Nature, 2022) Beusch, Lea; Nauels, Alexander; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Gütschow, Johannes; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Seneviratne, Sonia I.The contributions of single greenhouse gas emitters to country-level climate change are generally not disentangled, despite their relevance for climate policy and litigation. Here, we quantify the contributions of the five largest emitters (China, US, EU-27, India, and Russia) to projected 2030 country-level warming and extreme hot years with respect to pre-industrial climate using an innovative suite of Earth System Model emulators. We find that under current pledges, their cumulated 1991–2030 emissions are expected to result in extreme hot years every second year by 2030 in twice as many countries (92%) as without their influence (46%). If all world nations shared the same fossil CO2 per capita emissions as projected for the US from 2016–2030, global warming in 2030 would be 0.4 °C higher than under actual current pledges, and 75% of all countries would exceed 2 °C of regional warming instead of 11%. Our results highlight the responsibility of individual emitters in driving regional climate change and provide additional angles for the climate policy discourse.