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- ItemNear Real-Time Biophysical Rice (Oryza sativa L.) Yield Estimation to Support Crop Insurance Implementation in India(Basel : MDPI, 2020) Arumugam, Ponraj; Chemura, Abel; Schauberger, Bernhard; Gornott, ChristophImmediate yield loss information is required to trigger crop insurance payouts, which are important to secure agricultural income stability for millions of smallholder farmers. Techniques for monitoring crop growth in real-time and at 5 km spatial resolution may also aid in designing price interventions or storage strategies for domestic production. In India, the current government-backed PMFBY (Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana) insurance scheme is seeking such technologies to enable cost-efficient insurance premiums for Indian farmers. In this study, we used the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) to estimate yield and yield anomalies at 5 km spatial resolution for Kharif rice (Oryza sativa L.) over India between 2001 and 2017. We calibrated the model using publicly available data: namely, gridded weather data, nutrient applications, sowing dates, crop mask, irrigation information, and genetic coefficients of staple varieties. The model performance over the model calibration years (2001–2015) was exceptionally good, with 13 of 15 years achieving more than 0.7 correlation coefficient (r), and more than half of the years with above 0.75 correlation with observed yields. Around 52% (67%) of the districts obtained a relative Root Mean Square Error (rRMSE) of less than 20% (25%) after calibration in the major rice-growing districts (>25% area under cultivation). An out-of-sample validation of the calibrated model in Kharif seasons 2016 and 2017 resulted in differences between state-wise observed and simulated yield anomalies from –16% to 20%. Overall, the good ability of the model in the simulations of rice yield indicates that the model is applicable in selected states of India, and its outputs are useful as a yield loss assessment index for the crop insurance scheme PMFBY.
- ItemImpacts of climate change on agro-climatic suitability of major food crops in Ghana(San Francisco, California, US : PLOS, 2020) Chemura, Abel; Schauberger, Bernhard; Gornott, ChristophClimate change is projected to impact food production stability in many tropical countries through impacts on crop potential. However, without quantitative assessments of where, by how much and to what extent crop production is possible now and under future climatic conditions, efforts to design and implement adaptation strategies under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Action Plans (NAP) are unsystematic. In this study, we used extreme gradient boosting, a machine learning approach to model the current climatic suitability for maize, sorghum, cassava and groundnut in Ghana using yield data and agronomically important variables. We then used multi-model future climate projections for the 2050s and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) to predict changes in the suitability range of these crops. We achieved a good model fit in determining suitability classes for all crops (AUC = 0.81–0.87). Precipitation-based factors are suggested as most important in determining crop suitability, though the importance is crop-specific. Under projected climatic conditions, optimal suitability areas will decrease for all crops except for groundnuts under RCP8.5 (no change: 0%), with greatest losses for maize (12% under RCP2.6 and 14% under RCP8.5). Under current climatic conditions, 18% of Ghana has optimal suitability for two crops, 2% for three crops with no area having optimal suitability for all the four crops. Under projected climatic conditions, areas with optimal suitability for two and three crops will decrease by 12% as areas having moderate and marginal conditions for multiple crops increase. We also found that although the distribution of multiple crop suitability is spatially distinct, cassava and groundnut will be more simultaneously suitable for the south while groundnut and sorghum will be more suitable for the northern parts of Ghana under projected climatic conditions.
- ItemRobustly forecasting maize yields in Tanzania based on climatic predictors([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2020) Laudien, Rahel; Schauberger, Bernhard; Makowski, David; Gornott, ChristophSeasonal yield forecasts are important to support agricultural development programs and can contribute to improved food security in developing countries. Despite their importance, no operational forecasting system on sub-national level is yet in place in Tanzania. We develop a statistical maize yield forecast based on regional yield statistics in Tanzania and climatic predictors, covering the period 2009–2019. We forecast both yield anomalies and absolute yields at the sub-national scale about 6 weeks before the harvest. The forecasted yield anomalies (absolute yields) have a median Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.72 (0.79) in the out-of-sample cross validation, which corresponds to a median root mean squared error of 0.13 t/ha for absolute yields. In addition, we perform an out-of-sample variable selection and produce completely independent yield forecasts for the harvest year 2019. Our study is potentially applicable to other countries with short time series of yield data and inaccessible or low quality weather data due to the usage of only global climate data and a strict and transparent assessment of the forecasting skill.
- ItemRemote Sensing Based Yield Estimation of Rice (Oryza Sativa L.) Using Gradient Boosted Regression in India(Basel : MDPI, 2021) Arumugam, Ponraj; Chemura, Abel; Schauberger, Bernhard; Gornott, ChristophAccurate and spatially explicit yield information is required to ensure farmers’ income and food security at local and national levels. Current approaches based on crop cutting experiments are expensive and usually too late for timely income stabilization measures like crop insurances. We, therefore, utilized a Gradient Boosted Regression (GBR), a machine learning technique, to estimate rice yields at ~500 m spatial resolution for rice-producing areas in India with potential application for near real-time estimates. We used resampled intermediate resolution (~5 km) images of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Leaf Area Index (LAI) and observed yields at the district level in India for calibrating GBR models. These GBRs were then used to downscale district yields to 500 m resolution. Downscaled yields were re-aggregated for validation against out-of-sample district yields not used for model training and an additional independent data set of block-level (below district-level) yields. Our downscaled and re-aggregated yields agree well with reported district-level observations from 2003 to 2015 (r = 0.85 & MAE = 0.15 t/ha). The model performance improved further when estimating separate models for different rice cropping densities (up to r = 0.93). An additional out-of-sample validation for the years 2016 and 2017, proved successful with r = 0.84 and r = 0.77, respectively. Simulated yield accuracy was higher in water-limited, rainfed agricultural systems. We conclude that this downscaling approach of rice yield estimation using GBR is feasible across India and may complement current approaches for timely rice yield estimation required by insurance companies and government agencies.