2017, Szwed, Małgorzata, Pin´skwar, Iwona, Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W., Graczyk, Dariusz, Mezghani, Abdelkader

The present paper examines variability of characteristics of snow cover (snow cover depth, number of days with snow cover and dates of beginning and end of snow cover) in Poland. The study makes use of a set of 43 long time series of observation records from the stations in Poland, from 1952 to 2013. To describe temporal changes in snow cover characteristics, the intervals of 1952–1990 and of 1991–2013 are compared and trends in analysed data are sought (e.g., using the Mann–Kendall test). Observed behaviour of time series of snow-related variables is complex and not easy to interpret, for instance because of the location of the research area in the zone of transitional moderate climate, where strong variability of climate events is one of the main attributes. A statistical link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the snow cover depth, as well as the number of snow cover days is found.

2018, Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W., Piniewski, Mikołaj, Mezghani, Abdelkader, Okruszko, Tomasz, Pińskwar, Iwona, Kardel, Ignacy, Hov, Øystein, Szcześniak, Mateusz, Szwed, Małgorzata, Benestad, Rasmus E., Marcinkowski, Paweł, Graczyk, Dariusz, Dobler, Andreas, Førland, Eirik J., O’Keefe, Joanna, Choryński, Adam, Parding, Kajsa M., Haugen, Jan Erik

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.

2022, Wielgórski, Piotr, Pietrzyński, Grzegorz, Pilecki, Bogumił, Gieren, Wolfgang, Zgirski, Bartłomiej, Górski, Marek, Hajdu, Gergely, Narloch, Weronika, Karczmarek, Paulina, Smolec, Radosław, Kervella, Pierre, Storm, Jesper, Gallenne, Alexandre, Breuval, Louise, Lewis, Megan, Kałuszyński, Mikołaj, Graczyk, Dariusz, Pych, Wojciech, Suchomska, Ksenia, Taormina, Mónica, Rojas Garcia, Gonzalo, Kotek, Aleksandra, Chini, Rolf, Pozo Nũnez, Francisco, Noroozi, Sadegh, Sobrino Figaredo, Catalina, Haas, Martin, Hodapp, Klaus, Mikołajczyk, Przemysław, Kotysz, Krzysztof, Moździerski, Dawid, Kołaczek-Szymański, Piotr

We present time-series photometry of 21 nearby type II Cepheids in the near-infrared J, H, and K s passbands. We use this photometry, together with the Third Gaia Early Data Release parallaxes, to determine for the first time period-luminosity relations (PLRs) for type II Cepheids from field representatives of these old pulsating stars in the near-infrared regime. We found PLRs to be very narrow for BL Herculis stars, which makes them candidates for precision distance indicators. We then use archival photometry and the most accurate distance obtained from eclipsing binaries to recalibrate PLRs for type II Cepheids in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Slopes of our PLRs in the Milky Way and in the LMC differ by slightly more than 2σ and are in a good agreement with previous studies of the LMC, Galactic bulge, and Galactic globular cluster type II Cepheids samples. We use PLRs of Milky Way type II Cepheids to measure the distance to the LMC, and we obtain a distance modulus of 18.540 ± 0.026(stat.) ± 0.034(syst.) mag in the W JK Wesenheit index. We also investigate the metallicity effect within our Milky Way sample, and we find a rather significant value of about -0.2 mag dex-1 in each band meaning that more metal-rich type II Cepheids are intrinsically brighter than their more metal-poor counterparts, in agreement with the value obtained from type II Cepheids in Galactic globular clusters. The main source of systematic error on our Milky Way PLRs calibration, and the LMC distance, is the current uncertainty of the Gaia parallax zero-point.