Search Results
Long-term measurements of aerosol and carbon monoxide at the ZOTTO tall tower to characterize polluted and pristine air in the Siberian taiga
2013, Chi, X., Winderlich, J., Mayer, J.-C., Panov, A.V., Heimann, M., Birmili, W., Heintzenberg, J., Cheng, Y., Andreae, M.O.
Siberia is one of few continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere where the atmosphere may sometimes approach pristine background conditions. We present the time series of aerosol and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements between September 2006 and December 2011 at the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) in Central Siberia (61° N; 89° E). We investigate the seasonal, weekly and diurnal variations of aerosol properties (including absorption and scattering coefficients and derived parameters, such as equivalent black carbon (BCe), Ångström exponent, single scattering albedo, and backscattering ratio) and the CO mixing ratios. Criteria were established to distinguish polluted from near-pristine air masses, providing quantitative characteristics for each type. Depending on the season, 23–36% of the sampling time at ZOTTO was found to be representative of a clean atmosphere. The summer pristine data indicate that primary biogenic and secondary organic aerosol formation are quite strong particle sources in the Siberian taiga. The summer seasons 2007–2008 were dominated by an Aitken mode around 80 nm size, whereas the summer 2009 with prevailing easterly winds produced particles in the accumulation mode around 200 nm size. We found these differences to be mainly related to air temperature, through its effect on the production rates of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOC) precursor gases. In winter, the particle size distribution peaked at 160 nm, and the footprint of clean background air was characteristic for aged particles from anthropogenic sources at great distances from ZOTTO and diluted biofuel burning emissions from domestic heating. The wintertime polluted air originates mainly from large cities south and southwest of the site; these particles have a dominant mode around 100 nm, and the ΔBCe / ΔCO ratio of 7–11 ng m−3 ppb−1 suggests dominant contributions from coal and biofuel burning for heating. During summer, anthropogenic emissions are the dominant contributor to the pollution particles at ZOTTO, while only 12% of the polluted events are classified as biomass-burning-dominated, but then often associated with extremely high CO concentrations and aerosol absorption coefficients. Two biomass-burning case studies revealed different ΔBCe / ΔCO ratios from different fire types, with the agricultural fires in April~2008 yielding a very high ratio of 21 ng m−3 ppb−1. Overall, we find that anthropogenic sources dominate the aerosol population at ZOTTO most of the time, even during nominally clean episodes in winter, and that near-pristine conditions are encountered only in the growing season and then only episodically.
Analyzing the causes and spatial pattern of the European 2003 carbon flux anomaly using seven models
2008, Vetter, M., Churkina, G., Jung, M., Reichstein, M., Zaehle, S., Bondeau, A., Chen, Y., Ciais, P., Feser, F., Freibauer, A., Geyer, R., Jones, C., Papale, D., Tenhunen, J., Tomelleri, E., Trusilova, K., Viovy, N., Heimann, M.
Globally, the year 2003 is associated with one of the largest atmospheric CO2 rises on record. In the same year, Europe experienced an anomalously strong flux of CO2 from the land to the atmosphere associated with an exceptionally dry and hot summer in Western and Central Europe. In this study we analyze the magnitude of this carbon flux anomaly and key driving ecosystem processes using simulations of seven terrestrial ecosystem models of different complexity and types (process-oriented and diagnostic). We address the following questions: (1) how large were deviations in the net European carbon flux in 2003 relative to a short-term baseline (1998–2002) and to longer-term variations in annual fluxes (1980 to 2005), (2) which European regions exhibited the largest changes in carbon fluxes during the growing season 2003, and (3) which ecosystem processes controlled the carbon balance anomaly . In most models the prominence of 2003 anomaly in carbon fluxes declined with lengthening of the reference period from one year to 16 years. The 2003 anomaly for annual net carbon fluxes ranged between 0.35 and –0.63 Pg C for a reference period of one year and between 0.17 and –0.37 Pg C for a reference period of 16 years for the whole Europe. In Western and Central Europe, the anomaly in simulated net ecosystem productivity (NEP) over the growing season in 2003 was outside the 1σ variance bound of the carbon flux anomalies for 1980–2005 in all models. The estimated anomaly in net carbon flux ranged between –42 and –158 Tg C for Western Europe and between 24 and –129 Tg C for Central Europe depending on the model used. All models responded to a dipole pattern of the climate anomaly in 2003. In Western and Central Europe NEP was reduced due to heat and drought. In contrast, lower than normal temperatures and higher air humidity decreased NEP over Northeastern Europe. While models agree on the sign of changes in simulated NEP and gross primary productivity in 2003 over Western and Central Europe, models diverge in the estimates of anomalies in ecosystem respiration. Except for two process models which simulate respiration increase, most models simulated a decrease in ecosystem respiration in 2003. The diagnostic models showed a weaker decrease in ecosystem respiration than the process-oriented models. Based on the multi-model simulations we estimated the total carbon flux anomaly over the 2003 growing season in Europe to range between –0.02 and –0.27 Pg C relative to the net carbon flux in 1998–2002.
A novel bias correction methodology for climate impact simulations
2016, Sippel, S., Otto, F.E.L., Forkel, M., Allen, M.R., Guillod, B.P., Heimann, M., Reichstein, M., Seneviratne, S.I., Thonicke, K., Mahecha, M.D.
Understanding, quantifying and attributing the impacts of extreme weather and climate events in the terrestrial biosphere is crucial for societal adaptation in a changing climate. However, climate model simulations generated for this purpose typically exhibit biases in their output that hinder any straightforward assessment of impacts. To overcome this issue, various bias correction strategies are routinely used to alleviate climate model deficiencies, most of which have been criticized for physical inconsistency and the nonpreservation of the multivariate correlation structure. In this study, we introduce a novel, resampling-based bias correction scheme that fully preserves the physical consistency and multivariate correlation structure of the model output. This procedure strongly improves the representation of climatic extremes and variability in a large regional climate model ensemble (HadRM3P, climateprediction.net/weatherathome), which is illustrated for summer extremes in temperature and rainfall over Central Europe. Moreover, we simulate biosphere–atmosphere fluxes of carbon and water using a terrestrial ecosystem model (LPJmL) driven by the bias-corrected climate forcing. The resampling-based bias correction yields strongly improved statistical distributions of carbon and water fluxes, including the extremes. Our results thus highlight the importance of carefully considering statistical moments beyond the mean for climate impact simulations. In conclusion, the present study introduces an approach to alleviate climate model biases in a physically consistent way and demonstrates that this yields strongly improved simulations of climate extremes and associated impacts in the terrestrial biosphere. A wider uptake of our methodology by the climate and impact modelling community therefore seems desirable for accurately quantifying changes in past, current and future extremes.