Search Results
On the algorithmic solution of optimization problems subject to probabilistic/robust (probust) constraints
We present an adaptive grid refinement algorithm to solve probabilistic optimization problems with infinitely many random constraints. Using a bilevel approach, we iteratively aggregate inequalities that provide most information not in a geometric but in a probabilistic sense. This conceptual idea, for which a convergence proof is provided, is then adapted to an implementable algorithm. The efficiency of our approach when compared to naive methods based on uniform grid refinement is illustrated for a numerical test example as well as for a water reservoir problem with joint probabilistic filling level constraints.
A joint model of probabilistic/robust constraints for gas transport management in stationary networks
We present a novel mathematical algorithm to assist gas network operators in managing uncertainty, while increasing reliability of transmission and supply. As a result, we solve an optimization problem with a joint probabilistic constraint over an infinite system of random inequalities. Such models arise in the presence of uncertain parameters having partially stochastic and partially nonstochastic character. The application that drives this new approach is a stationary network with uncertain demand (which are stochastic due to the possibility of fitting statistical distributions based on historical measurements) and with uncertain roughness coefficients in the pipes (which are uncertain but non-stochastic due to a lack of attainable measurements). We study the sensitivity of local uncertainties in the roughness coefficients and their impact on a highly reliable network operation. In particular, we are going to answer the question, what is the maximum uncertainty that is allowed (shaping a maximal uncertainty set) around nominal roughness coefficients, such that random demands in a stationary gas network can be satisfied at given high probability level for no matter which realization of true roughness coefficients within the uncertainty set. One ends up with a constraint, which is probabilistic with respect to the load of gas and robust with respect to the roughness coefficients. We demonstrate how such constraints can be dealt with in the framework of the so-called spheric-radial decomposition of multivariate Gaussian distributions. The numerical solution of a corresponding optimization problem is illustrated. The results might assist the network operator with the implementation of cost-intensive roughness measurements.
Optimal Neumann boundary control of a vibrating string with uncertain initial data and probabilistic terminal constraints
In optimal control problems, often initial data are required that are not known exactly in practice. In order to take into account this uncertainty, we consider optimal control problems for a system with an uncertain initial state. A finite terminal time is given. On account of the uncertainty of the initial state, it is not possible to prescribe an exact terminal state. Instead, we are looking for controls that steer the system into a given neighborhood of the desired terminal state with sufficiently high probability. This neighborhood is described in terms of an inequality for the terminal energy. The probabilistic constraint in the considered optimal control problem leads to optimal controls that are robust against the inevitable uncertainties of the initial state. We show the existence of such optimal controls. Numerical examples with optimal Neumann control of the wave equation are presented.
Consequences of uncertain friction for the transport of natural gas through passive networks of pipelines
Assuming a pipe-wise constant structure of the friction coefficient in the modeling of natural gas transport through a passive network of pipes via semilinear systems of balance laws with associated linear coupling and boundary conditions, uncertainty in this parameter is quantified by a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Here, information on the prior distribution is obtained from practitioners. The results are applied to the problem of validating technical feasibility under random exit demand in gas transport networks. In particular, the impact of quantified uncertainty to the probability level of technical feasible exit demand situations is studied by two example networks of small and medium size. The gas transport of the network is modeled by stationary solutions that are steady states of the time dependent semilinear problems.
On convex lower-level black-box constraints in bilevel optimization with an application to gas market models with chance constraints
Bilevel optimization is an increasingly important tool to model hierarchical decision making. However, the ability of modeling such settings makes bilevel problems hard to solve in theory and practice. In this paper, we add on the general difficulty of this class of problems by further incorporating convex black-box constraints in the lower level. For this setup, we develop a cutting-plane algorithm that computes approximate bilevel-feasible points. We apply this method to a bilevel model of the European gas market in which we use a joint chance constraint to model uncertain loads. Since the chance constraint is not available in closed form, this fits into the black-box setting studied before. For the applied model, we use further problem-specific insights to derive bounds on the objective value of the bilevel problem. By doing so, we are able to show that we solve the application problem to approximate global optimality. In our numerical case study we are thus able to evaluate the welfare sensitivity in dependence of the achieved safety level of uncertain load coverage.
Joint Model of Probabilistic-Robust (Probust) Constraints Applied to Gas Network Optimization
Optimization problems under uncertain conditions abound in many real-life applications. While solution approaches for probabilistic constraints are often developed in case the uncertainties can be assumed to follow a certain probability distribution, robust approaches are usually applied in case solutions are sought that are feasible for all realizations of uncertainties within some predefined uncertainty set. As many applications contain different types of uncertainties that require robust as well as probabilistic treatments, we deal with a class of joint probabilistic/robust constraints. Focusing on complex uncertain gas network optimization problems, we show the relevance of this class of problems for the task of maximizing free booked capacities in an algebraic model for a stationary gas network. We furthermore present approaches for finding their solution. Finally, we study the problem of controlling a transient system that is governed by the wave equation. The task consists in determining controls such that a certain robustness measure remains below some given upper bound with high probability.
On the algorithmic solution of optimization problems subject to probabilistic/robust (probust) constraints
We present an adaptive grid refinement algorithm to solve probabilistic optimization problems with infinitely many random constraints. Using a bilevel approach, we iteratively aggregate inequalities that provide most information not in a geometric but in a probabilistic sense. This conceptual idea, for which a convergence proof is provided, is then adapted to an implementable algorithm. The efficiency of our approach when compared to naive methods based on uniform grid refinement is illustrated for a numerical test example as well as for a water reservoir problem with joint probabilistic filling level constraints.
Solving joint chance constrained problems using regularization and Benders decomposition
In this paper we investigate stochastic programms with joint chance constraints. We consider discrete scenario set and reformulate the problem by adding auxiliary variables. Since the resulting problem has a difficult feasible set, we regularize it. To decrease the dependence on the scenario number, we propose a numerical method by iteratively solving a master problem while adding Benders cuts. We find the solution of the slave problem (generating the Benders cuts) in a closed form and propose a heuristic method to decrease the number of cuts. We perform a numerical study by increasing the number of scenarios and compare our solution with a solution obtained by solving the same problem with continuous distribution.
A turnpike property for optimal control problems with dynamic probabilistic constraints
In this paper we consider systems that are governed by linear time-discrete dynamics with an initial condition, additive random perturbations in each step and a terminal condition for the expected values. We study optimal control problems where the objective function consists of a term of tracking type for the expected values and a control cost. In addition, the feasible states have to satisfy a conservative probabilistic constraint that requires that the probability that the trajectories remain in a given set F is greater than or equal to a given lower bound. An application are optimal control problems related to storage management systems with uncertain in- and output. We give sufficient conditions that imply that the optimal expected trajectories remain close to a certain state that can be characterized as the solution of an optimal control problem without prescribed initial- and terminal condition. In this way we contribute to the study of the turnpike phenomenon that is well-known in mathematical economics and make a step towards the extension of the turnpike theory to problems with probabilistic constraints.
Are Quasi-Monte Carlo algorithms efficient for two-stage stochastic programs?
Quasi-Monte Carlo algorithms are studied for designing discrete approximations of two-stage linear stochastic programs with random right-hand side and continuous probability distribution. The latter should allow for a transformation to a distribution with independent marginals. The twostage integrands are piecewise linear, but neither smooth nor lie in the function spaces considered for QMC error analysis. We show that under some weak geometric condition on the two-stage model all terms of their ANOVA decomposition, except the one of highest order, are continuously differentiable and that first and second order ANOVA terms have mixed first order partial derivatives and belong to L2. Hence, randomly shifted lattice rules (SLR) may achieve the optimal rate of convergence O(n-1+delta) with 2 (0; 1 2 ] and a constant not depending on the dimension if the effective superposition dimension is at most two. We discuss effective dimensions and dimension reduction for two-stage integrands. The geometric condition is shown to be satisfied almost everywhere if the underlying probability distribution is normal and principal component analysis (PCA) is used for transforming the covariance matrix. Numerical experiments for a large scale two-stage stochastic production planning model with normal demand show that indeed convergence rates close to the optimal are achieved when using SLR and randomly scrambled Sobol’ point sets accompanied with PCA for dimension reduction.