Search Results
How the Selection of Training Data and Modeling Approach Affects the Estimation of Ammonia Emissions from a Naturally Ventilated Dairy Barn—Classical Statistics versus Machine Learning
Environmental protection efforts can only be effective in the long term with a reliable quantification of pollutant gas emissions as a first step to mitigation. Measurement and analysis strategies must permit the accurate extrapolation of emission values. We systematically analyzed the added value of applying modern machine learning methods in the process of monitoring emissions from naturally ventilated livestock buildings to the atmosphere. We considered almost 40 weeks of hourly emission values from a naturally ventilated dairy cattle barn in Northern Germany. We compared model predictions using 27 different scenarios of temporal sampling, multiple measures of model accuracy, and eight different regression approaches. The error of the predicted emission values with the tested measurement protocols was, on average, well below 20%. The sensitivity of the prediction to the selected training dataset was worse for the ordinary multilinear regression. Gradient boosting and random forests provided the most accurate and robust emission value predictions, accompanied by the second-smallest model errors. Most of the highly ranked scenarios involved six measurement periods, while the scenario with the best overall performance was: One measurement period in summer and three in the transition periods, each lasting for 14 days.
Methane Emission Characteristics of Naturally Ventilated Cattle Buildings
The mandate to limit global temperature rise calls for a reliable quantification of gaseous pollutant emissions as a basis for effective mitigation. Methane emissions from ruminant fermentation are of particular relevance in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation. The emission dynamics are so far insufficiently understood. We analyzed hourly methane emission data collected during contrasting seasons from two naturally ventilated dairy cattle buildings with concrete floor and performed a second order polynomial regression. We found a parabolic temperature dependence of the methane emissions irrespective of the measurement site and setup. The position of the parabola vertex varied when considering different hours of the day. The circadian rhythm of methane emissions was represented by the pattern of the fitted values of the constant term of the polynomial and could be well explained by feeding management and air flow conditions. We found barn specific emission minima at ambient temperatures around 10 °C to 15 °C. As this identified temperature optimum coincides with the welfare temperature of dairy cows, we concluded that temperature regulation of dairy cow buildings with concrete floor should be considered and further investigated as an emission mitigation measure. Our results further indicated that empirical modeling of methane emissions from the considered type of buildings with a second order polynomial for the independent variable air temperature can increase the accuracy of predicted long-term emission values for regions with pronounced seasonal temperature fluctuations
CFD modelling of an animal occupied zone using an anisotropic porous medium model with velocity depended resistance parameters
The airflow in dairy barns is affected by many factors, such as the barn’s geometry, weather conditions, configurations of the openings, cows acting as heat sources, flow obstacles, etc. Computational fluids dynamics (CFD) has the advantages of providing detailed airflow information and allowing fully-controlled boundary conditions, and therefore is widely used in livestock building research. However, due to the limited computing power, numerous animals are difficult to be designed in detail. Consequently, there is the need to develop and use smart numerical models in order to reduce the computing power needed while at the same time keeping a comparable level of accuracy. In this work the porous medium modeling is considered to solve this problem using Ansys Fluent. A comparison between an animal occupied zone (AOZ) filled with randomly arranged 22 simplified cows’ geometry model (CM) and the porous medium model (PMM) of it, was made. Anisotropic behavior of the PMM was implemented in the porous modeling to account for turbulence influences. The velocity at the inlet of the domain has been varied from 0.1 m s−1 to 3 m s−1 and the temperature difference between the animals and the incoming air was set at 20 K. Leading to Richardson numbers Ri corresponding to the three types of heat transfer convection, i.e. natural, mixed and forced convection. It has been found that the difference between two models (the cow geometry model and the PMM) was around 2% for the pressure drop and less than 6% for the convective heat transfer. Further the usefulness of parametrized PMM with a velocity adaptive pressure drop and heat transfer coefficient is shown by velocity field validation of an on-farm measurement.
Direct Measurements of the Volume Flow Rate and Emissions in a Large Naturally Ventilated Building
The direct measurement of emissions from naturally ventilated dairy barns is challenging due to their large openings and the turbulent and unsteady airflow at the inlets and outlets. The aim of this study was to quantify the impacts of the number and positions of sensors on the estimation of volume flow rate and emissions. High resolution measurements of a naturally ventilated scaled building model in an atmospheric boundary layer wind tunnel were done. Tracer gas was released inside the model and measured at the outlet area, using a fast flame ionization detector (FFID). Additionally, the normal velocity on the area was measured using laser Doppler anemometry (LDA). In total, for a matrix of 65 × 4 sensor positions, the mean normal velocities and the mean concentrations were measured and used to calculate the volume flow rate and the emissions. This dataset was used as a reference to assess the accuracy while systematically reducing the number of sensors and varying the positions of them. The results showed systematic errors in the emission estimation up to +97%, when measurements of concentration and velocity were done at one constant height. This error could be lowered under 5%, when the concentrations were measured as a vertical composite sample.
Heat stress risk in European dairy cattle husbandry under different climate change scenarios – uncertainties and potential impacts
In the last decades, a global warming trend was observed. Along with the temperature increase, modifications in the humidity and wind regime amplify the regional and local impacts on livestock husbandry. Direct impacts include the occurrence of climatic stress conditions. In Europe, cows are economically highly relevant and are mainly kept in naturally ventilated buildings that are most susceptible to climate change. The high-yielding cows are particularly vulnerable to heat stress. Modifications in housing management are the main measures taken to improve the ability of livestock to cope with these conditions. Measures are typically taken in direct reaction to uncomfortable conditions instead of in anticipation of a long-term risk for climatic stress. Measures that balance welfare, environmental and economic issues are barely investigated in the context of climate change and are thus almost not available for commercial farms. Quantitative analysis of the climate change impacts on animal welfare and linked economic and environmental factors is rare. Therefore, we used a numerical modeling approach to estimate the future heat stress risk in such dairy cattle husbandry systems. The indoor climate was monitored inside three reference barns in central Europe and the Mediterranean regions. An artificial neuronal network (ANN) was trained to relate the outdoor weather conditions provided by official meteorological weather stations to the measured indoor microclimate. Subsequently, this ANN model was driven by an ensemble of regional climate model projections with three different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. For the evaluation of the heat stress risk, we considered the number and duration of heat stress events. Based on the changes in the heat stress events, various economic and environmental impacts were estimated. The impacts of the projected increase in heat stress risk varied among the barns due to different locations and designs as well as the anticipated climate change (considering different climate models and future greenhouse gas concentrations). There was an overall increasing trend in number and duration of heat stress events. At the end of the century, the number of annual stress events can be expected to increase by up to 2000, while the average duration of the events increases by up to 22 h compared to the end of the last century. This implies strong impacts on economics, environment and animal welfare and an urgent need for mid-term adaptation strategies. We anticipated that up to one-tenth of all hours of a year, correspondingly one-third of all days, will be classified as critical heat stress conditions. Due to heat stress, milk yield may decrease by about 2.8 % relative to the present European milk yield, and farmers may expect financial losses in the summer season of about 5.4 % of their monthly income. In addition, an increasing demand for emission reduction measures must be expected, as an emission increase of about 16 Gg of ammonia and 0.1 Gg of methane per year can be expected under the anticipated heat stress conditions. The cattle respiration rate increases by up to 60 %, and the standing time may be prolonged by 1 h. This causes health issues and increases the probability of medical treatments. The various impacts imply feedback loops in the climate system which are presently underexplored. Hence, future in-depth studies on the different impacts and adaptation options at different stress levels are highly recommended.