2017, Grandón, Tatiana González, Heitsch, Holger, Henrion, René

We present a novel mathematical algorithm to assist gas network operators in managing uncertainty, while increasing reliability of transmission and supply. As a result, we solve an optimization problem with a joint probabilistic constraint over an infinite system of random inequalities. Such models arise in the presence of uncertain parameters having partially stochastic and partially nonstochastic character. The application that drives this new approach is a stationary network with uncertain demand (which are stochastic due to the possibility of fitting statistical distributions based on historical measurements) and with uncertain roughness coefficients in the pipes (which are uncertain but non-stochastic due to a lack of attainable measurements). We study the sensitivity of local uncertainties in the roughness coefficients and their impact on a highly reliable network operation. In particular, we are going to answer the question, what is the maximum uncertainty that is allowed (shaping a maximal uncertainty set) around nominal roughness coefficients, such that random demands in a stationary gas network can be satisfied at given high probability level for no matter which realization of true roughness coefficients within the uncertainty set. One ends up with a constraint, which is probabilistic with respect to the load of gas and robust with respect to the roughness coefficients. We demonstrate how such constraints can be dealt with in the framework of the so-called spheric-radial decomposition of multivariate Gaussian distributions. The numerical solution of a corresponding optimization problem is illustrated. The results might assist the network operator with the implementation of cost-intensive roughness measurements.

2018, Hantoute, Abderrahim, Henrion, René, Pérez-Aros, Pedro

Probability functions figure prominently in optimization problems of engineering. They may be nonsmooth even if all input data are smooth. This fact motivates the consideration of subdifferentials for such typically just continuous functions. The aim of this paper is to provide subdifferential formulae of such functions in the case of Gaussian distributions for possibly infinite-dimensional decision variables and nonsmooth (locally Lipschitzian) input data. These formulae are based on the spheric-radial decomposition of Gaussian random vectors on the one hand and on a cone of directions of moderate growth on the other. By successively adding additional hypotheses, conditions are satisfied under which the probability function is locally Lipschitzian or even differentiable.

2015, Gotzes, Claudia, Heitsch, Holger, Henrion, René, Schultz, Rüdiger

The paper considers the computation of the probability of feasible load constellations in a stationary gas network with uncertain demand. More precisely, a network with a single entry and several exits with uncertain loads is studied. Feasibility of a load constellation is understood in the sense of an existing flow meeting these loads along with given pressure bounds in the pipes. In a first step, feasibility of deterministic exit loads is characterized algebraically and these general conditions are specified to networks involving at most one cycle. This prerequisite is essential for determining probabilities in a stochastic setting when exit loads are assumed to follow some (joint) Gaussian distribution when modeling uncertain customer demand. The key of our approach is the application of the spheric-radial decomposition of Gaussian random vectors coupled with Quasi Monte-Carlo sampling. This approach requires an efficient algorithmic treatment of the mentioned algebraic relations moreover depending on a scalar parameter. Numerical results are illustrated for different network examples and demonstrate a clear superiority in terms of precision over simple generic Monte-Carlo sampling. They lead to fairly accurate probability values even for moderate sample size.