2022, Lincke, Daniel, Hinkel, Jochen, Mengel, Matthias, Nicholls, Robert J.

Global coastal flood exposure (population and assets) has been growing since the beginning of the industrial age and is likely to continue to grow through 21st century. Three main drivers are responsible: (a) climate-related mean sea-level change, (b) vertical land movement contributing to relative sea-level rise, and (c) socio-economic development. This paper attributes growing coastal exposure and flood risk from 1860 to 2100 to these three drivers. For historic flood exposure (1860–2005) we find that the roughly six-fold increase in population exposure and 53-fold increase in asset exposure are almost completely explained by socio-economic development (>97% for population and >99% for assets). For future exposure (2005–2100), assuming a middle-of-the-road regionalized socio-economic scenario (SSP2) without coastal migration and sea-level rise according to RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, climate-change induced sea-level rise will become the most important driver for the growth in population exposure, while growth in asset exposure will still be mainly determined by socio-economic development.

2017, Frieler, Katja, Lange, Stefan, Piontek, Franziska, Reyer, Christopher P.O., Schewe, Jacob, Warszawski, Lila, Zhao, Fang, Chini, Louise, Denvil, Sebastien, Emanuel, Kerry, Geiger, Tobias, Halladay, Kate, Hurtt, George, Mengel, Matthias, Murakami, Daisuke, Ostberg, Sebastian, Popp, Alexander, Riva, Riccardo, Stevanovic, Miodrag, Suzuki, Tatsuo, Volkholz, Jan, Burke, Eleanor, Ciais, Philippe, Ebi, Kristie, Eddy, Tyler D., Elliott, Joshua, Galbraith, Eric, Gosling, Simon N., Hattermann, Fred, Hickler, Thomas, Hinkel, Jochen, Hof, Christian, Huber, Veronika, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Krysanova, Valentina, Marcé, Rafael, Müller Schmied, Hannes, Mouratiadou, Ioanna, Pierson, Don, Tittensor, Derek P., Vautard, Robert, van Vliet, Michelle, Biber, Matthias F., Betts, Richard A., Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Deryng, Delphine, Frolking, Steve, Jones, Chris D., Lotze, Heike K., Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Sahajpal, Ritvik, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Yamagata, Yoshiki

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5°C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).