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- ItemFire, late frost, nun moth and drought risks in Germany's forests under climate change(Stuttgart : E. Schweizerbart Science Publishers, 2016) Lasch-Born, Petra; Suckow, Felicitas; Gutsch, Martin; Hauf, Ylva; Hoffmann, Peter; Kollas, Chris; Reyer, Christopher P.O.Ongoing climate change affects growth and increases biotic and abiotic threats to Germany's forests. We analysed how these risks develop through the mid-century under a variety of climate change scenarios using the process-based forest model 4C. This model allows the calculation of indicators for fire danger, late frost risk for beech and oak, drought stress and nun moth risk. 4C was driven by a set of 4 simulations of future climate generated with the statistical model STARS and with 10 simulations of future climate based on EURO-CORDEX model simulations for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways. A set of about 70000 forest stands (Norway spruce, Scots pine, beech, oak, birch), based on the national forest inventory describing 98.4 % of the forest in Germany, was used together with data from a digital soil map. The changes and the range of changes were analysed by comparing results of a recent time period (1971–2005) and a scenario time period (2011–2045). All indicators showed higher risks for the scenario time period compared to the recent time period, except the late frost risk indicators, if averaged over all climate scenarios. The late frost risk for beech and oaks decreased for the main forest sites. Under recent climate conditions, the highest risk with regard to all five indicators was found to be in the Southwest Uplands and the northern part of Germany. The highest climate-induced uncertainty regarding the indicators for 2011–2045 is projected for the East Central Uplands and Northeast German Plain.
- ItemSummer, sun and sepsis—The influence of outside temperature on nosocomial bloodstream infections: A cohort study and review of the literature(San Francisco, California, US : PLOS, 2020) Schwab, Frank; Gastmeier, Petra; Hoffmann, Peter; Meyer, ElisabethThe retrospective cohort study is based on two databases: The German national surveillance system for nosocomial infections in intensive care units (ICU-KISS) from 2001 to 2015 and aggregated monthly climate data. Primary bloodstream infection (PBSI) is defined as a positive blood culture with one (or more) pathogen(s) which are not related to an infection on another site and which were not present at admission. Monthly infection data were matched with postal code, calendar month and corresponding monthly climate and weather data. All analyses were exploratory in nature. 1,196 ICUs reported data on PBSI to KISS. The ICUs were located in 779 hospitals and in 728 different postal codes in Germany. The majority of the 19,194 PBSI were caused by gram-positive bacteria. In total, the incidence density of BSI was 17% (IRR 1.168, 95%CI 1.076–1.268) higher in months with high temperatures (≥20°C) compared to months with low temperatures (<5°C). The effect was most prominent for gram-negatives; more than one third (38%) higher followed by gram-positives with 13%. Fungi reached their highest IRR at moderately warm temperatures between 15–20°C. At such temperatures fungi showed an increase of 33% compared to temperatures below 5°C. PBSI spiked in summer with a peak in July and August. PBSI differed by pathogen: The majority of bacteria increased with rising temperatures. Enterococci showed no seasonality. S. pneumoniae reached a peak in winter time. The association of the occurrence of PBSI and temperatures ≥20°C was stronger when the mean monthly temperature in the month prior to the occurrence of BSI was considered instead of the temperature in the month of the occurrence of BSI. High average temperatures ≥20°C increased the risk of the development of a PBSI by 16% compared with low temperatures <5°C.