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- ItemNational contributions for decarbonizing the world economy in line with the G7 agreement(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2016) du Pont, Yann Robiou; Jeffery, M. Louise; Gütschow, Johannes; Christoff, Peter; Meinshausen, MalteIn June 2015, the G7 agreed to two global mitigation goals: 'a decarbonization of the global economy over the course of this century' and 'the upper end of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommendation of 40%–70% reductions by 2050 compared to 2010'. These IPCC recommendations aim to preserve a likely (>66%) chance of limiting global warming to 2 °C but are not necessarily consistent with the stronger ambition of the subsequent Paris Agreement of 'holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels'. The G7 did not specify global or national emissions scenarios consistent with its own agreement. Here we identify global cost-optimal emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models that match the G7 agreement. These scenarios have global 2030 emissions targets of 11%–43% below 2010, global net negative CO2 emissions starting between 2056 and 2080, and some exhibit net negative greenhouse gas emissions from 2080 onwards. We allocate emissions from these global scenarios to countries according to five equity approaches representative of the five equity categories presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (IPCCAR5): 'capability', 'equality', 'responsibility-capability-need', 'equal cumulative per capita' and 'staged approaches'. Our results show that G7 members' Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDCs) mitigation targets are in line with a grandfathering approach but lack ambition to meet various visions of climate justice. The INDCs of China and Russia fall short of meeting the requirements of any allocation approach. Depending on how their INDCs are evaluated, the INDCs of India and Brazil can match some equity approaches evaluated in this study.
- ItemThe PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Gütschow, Johannes; Jeffery, M. Louise; Gieseke, Robert; Gebel, Ronja; Stevens, David; Krapp, Mario; Rocha, MarciaTo assess the history of greenhouse gas emissions and individual countries' contributions to emissions and climate change, detailed historical data are needed. We combine several published datasets to create a comprehensive set of emissions pathways for each country and Kyoto gas, covering the years 1850 to 2014 with yearly values, for all UNFCCC member states and most non-UNFCCC territories. The sectoral resolution is that of the main IPCC 1996 categories. Additional time series of CO2 are available for energy and industry subsectors. Country-resolved data are combined from different sources and supplemented using year-to-year growth rates from regionally resolved sources and numerical extrapolations to complete the dataset. Regional deforestation emissions are downscaled to country level using estimates of the deforested area obtained from potential vegetation and simulations of agricultural land. In this paper, we discuss the data sources and methods used and present the resulting dataset, including its limitations and uncertainties. The dataset is available from doi:10.5880/PIK.2016.003 and can be viewed on the website accompanying this paper (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/primap-live/primap-hist/).
- ItemPRIMAP-crf: UNFCCC CRF data in IPCC 2006 categories(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernics Publications, 2018) Jeffery, M. Louise; Gütschow, Johannes; Gieseke, Robert; Gebel, RonjaAll Annex I Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to report domestic emissions on an annual basis in a “Common Reporting Format” (CRF). In 2015, the CRF data reporting was updated to follow the more recent 2006 guidelines from the IPCC and the structure of the reporting tables was modified accordingly. However, the hierarchical categorisation of data in the IPCC 2006 guidelines is not readily extracted from the reporting tables. In this paper, we present the PRIMAP-crf data as a re-constructed hierarchical dataset according to the IPCC 2006 guidelines. Furthermore, the data are organised in a series of tables containing all available countries and years for each individual gas and category reported. It is therefore readily usable for climate policy assessment, such as the quantification of emissions reduction targets. In addition to single gases, the Kyoto basket of greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O, CH4, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, and NF3) is provided according to multiple global warming potentials. The dataset was produced using the PRIMAP emissions module. Key processing steps include extracting data from submitted CRF Excel spreadsheets, mapping CRF categories to IPCC 2006 categories, constructing missing categories from available data, and aggregating single gases to gas baskets. Finally, we describe key aspects of the data with relevance for climate policy: the contribution of NF3 to national totals, changes in data reported over subsequent years, and issues or difficulties encountered when processing currently available data. The processed data are available under an Open Data CC BY 4.0 license, and are available at https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2018.001.