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- ItemDamage functions for climate-related hazards: Unification and uncertainty analysis(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2016) Prahl, B.F.; Rybski, D.; Boettle, M.; Kropp, J.P.
- ItemQuantifying the effect of sea level rise and flood defence - A point process perspective on coastal flood damage(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2016) Boettle, M.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J.P.
- ItemComparison of storm damage functions and their performance(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2015) Prahl, B.F.; Rybski, D.; Burghoff, O.; Kropp, J.P.
- ItemAbout the influence of elevation model quality and small-scale damage functions on flood damage estimation(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2011) Boettle, M.; Kropp, J.P.; Reiber, L.; Roithmeier, O.; Rybski, D.; Walther, C.The assessment of coastal flood risks in a particular region requires the estimation of typical damages caused by storm surges of certain characteristics and annualities. Although the damage depends on a multitude of factors, including flow velocity, duration of flood, precaution, etc., the relationship between flood events and the corresponding average damages is usually described by a stage-damage function, which considers the maximum water level as the only damage influencing factor. Starting with different (microscale) building damage functions we elaborate a macroscopic damage function for the entire case study area Kalundborg (Denmark) on the basis of multiple coarse-graining methods and assumptions of the hydrological connectivity. We find that for small events, the macroscopic damage function mostly depends on the properties of the elevation model, while for large events it strongly depends on the assumed building damage function. In general, the damage in the case study increases exponentially up to a certain level and then less steep.
- ItemEmbodied Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Diets(San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2013) Pradhan, P.; Reusser, D.E.; Kropp, J.P.Changing food consumption patterns and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been a matter of scientific debate for decades. The agricultural sector is one of the major GHG emitters and thus holds a large potential for climate change mitigation through optimal management and dietary changes. We assess this potential, project emissions, and investigate dietary patterns and their changes globally on a per country basis between 1961 and 2007. Sixteen representative and spatially differentiated patterns with a per capita calorie intake ranging from 1,870 to <3,400 kcal/day were derived. Detailed analyses show that low calorie diets are decreasing worldwide, while in parallel diet composition is changing as well: a discernable shift towards more balanced diets in developing countries can be observed and steps towards more meat rich diets as a typical characteristics in developed countries. Low calorie diets which are mainly observable in developing countries show a similar emission burden than moderate and high calorie diets. This can be explained by a less efficient calorie production per unit of GHG emissions in developing countries. Very high calorie diets are common in the developed world and exhibit high total per capita emissions of 3.7-6.1 kg CO2eq./day due to high carbon intensity and high intake of animal products. In case of an unbridled demographic growth and changing dietary patterns the projected emissions from agriculture will approach 20 Gt CO2eq./yr by 2050.
- ItemPresentation of uncertainties on web platforms for climate change information(Amsterdam : Elsevier B.V., 2011) Reusser, D.E.; Wrobel, M.; Nocke, T.; Sterzel, T.; Förster, H.; Kropp, J.P.Adaptation to climate change is gaining attention and is very challenging because it requires action at a local scale in response to global problems. At the same time, spatial and temporal uncertainty about climate impacts and effects of adaptation projects is large. Data on climate impacts and adaptation is collected and presented in web-based platforms such as ci:grasp, which is unique in its structuredness and by explicitly linking adaptation projects to the addressed climate impacts. The challenge to find an adequate and readable representation of uncertainty in this context is large and research is just in the initial phase to provide solutions to the problem. Our goal is to present the structure required to address spatial and temporal uncertainty within ci:grasp. We compare existing concepts and representations for uncertainty communication with current practices on web-based platforms. From our review we derive an uncertainty framework for climate information going beyond what is currently present in the web. We make use of a multi-step approach in communicating the uncertainty and a typology of uncertainty distinguishing between epistemic, natural stochastic, and human reflexive uncertainty. While our suggestions are a step forward, much remains to be done.
- ItemDetermining regional limits and sectoral constraints for water use(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2014) Lissner, T.K.; Sullivan, C.A.; Reusser, D.E.; Kropp, J.P.Water is an essential input to the majority of human activities. Often, access to sufficient water resources is limited by quality and infrastructure aspects, rather than by resource availability alone, and each activity has different requirements regarding the nature of these aspects. This paper develops an integrated approach to assess the adequacy of water resources for the three major water users: the domestic, agricultural and industrial sectors. Additionally, we include environmental water requirements. We first outline the main determinants of water adequacy for each sector. Subsequently, we present an integrated approach using fuzzy logic, which allows assessing sector-specific as well as overall water adequacy. We implement the approach in two case study settings to exemplify the main features of the approach. Using results from two climate models and two forcing RCPs (representative concentration pathways), as well as population projections, we further assess the impacts of climate change in combination with population growth on the adequacy of water resources. The results provide an important step forward in determining the most relevant factors, impeding adequate access to water, which remains an important challenge in many regions of the world. The methodology allows one to directly identify the factors that are most decisive in determining the adequacy of water in each region, pointing towards the most efficient intervention points to improve conditions. Our findings underline the fact that, in addition to water volumes, water quality is a limitation for all sectors and, especially for the environmental sector, high levels of pollution are a threat to water adequacy.
- ItemClosing yield gaps: How sustainable can we be?(San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2015) Pradhan, P.; Fischer, G.; Van Velthuizen, H.; Reusser, D.E.; Kropp, J.P.
- ItemClimate-driven or human-induced: Indicating severe water scarcity in the Moulouya river basin (Morocco)(Basel : MDPI AG, 2012) Tekken, V.; Kropp, J.P.Many agriculture-based economies are increasingly under stress from climate change and socio-economic pressures. The excessive exploitation of natural resources still represents the standard procedure to achieve socio-economic development. In the area of the Moulouya river basin, Morocco, natural water availability represents a key resource for all economic activities. Agriculture represents the most important sector, and frequently occurring water deficits are aggravated by climate change. On the basis of historical trends taken from CRU TS 2.1, this paper analyses the impact of climate change on the per capita water availability under inclusion of population trends. The Climatic Water Balance (CWB) shows a significant decrease for the winter period, causing adverse effects for the main agricultural season. Further, moisture losses due to increasing evapotranspiration rates indicate problems for the annual water budget and groundwater recharge. The per capita blue water availability falls below a minimum threshold of 500 m3 per year, denoting a high regional vulnerability to increasing water scarcity assuming a no-response scenario. Regional development focusing on the water-intense sectors of agriculture and tourism appears to be at risk. Institutional capacities and policies need to address the problem, and the prompt implementation of innovative water production and efficiency measures is recommended.