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Author: Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W. × Subject: Climate change ×

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Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    What can we learn from the projections of changes of flow patterns? Results from Polish case studies
    (Heidelberg : Springer, 2017) Piniewski, Mikołaj; Meresa, Hadush Kidane; Romanowicz, Renata; Osuch, Marzena; Szczes´niak, Mateusz; Kardel, Ignacy; Okruszko, Tomasz; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
    River flow projections for two future time horizons and RCP 8.5 scenario, generated by two projects (CHASE-PL and CHIHE) in the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme, were compared. The projects employed different hydrological models over different spatial domains. The semi-distributed, process-based, SWAT model was used in the CHASE-PL project for the entire Vistula and Odra basins area, whilst the lumped, conceptual, HBV model was used in the CHIHE project for eight Polish catchments, for which the comparison study was made. Climate projections in both studies originated from the common EURO-CORDEX dataset, but they were different, e.g. due to different bias correction approaches. Increases in mean annual and seasonal flows were projected in both studies, yet the magnitudes of changes were largely different, in particular for the lowland catchments in the far future. The HBV-based increases were significantly higher in the latter case than the SWAT-based increases in all seasons except winter. Uncertainty in projections is high and creates a problem for practitioners.
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    Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland
    (Warsaw : De Gruyter Open, 2018) Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Piniewski, Mikołaj; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Okruszko, Tomasz; Pińskwar, Iwona; Kardel, Ignacy; Hov, Øystein; Szcześniak, Mateusz; Szwed, Małgorzata; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Graczyk, Dariusz; Dobler, Andreas; Førland, Eirik J.; O’Keefe, Joanna; Choryński, Adam; Parding, Kajsa M.; Haugen, Jan Erik
    The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.
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    Governance Strategies for Improving Flood Resilience in the Face of Climate Change
    (Basel : MDPI, 2018) Driessen, Peter P. J.; Hegger, Dries L. T.; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; van Rijswick, Helena F. M. W.; Crabbé, Ann; Larrue, Corinne; Matczak, Piotr; Pettersson, Maria; Priest, Sally; Suykens, Cathy; Raadgever, Gerrit Thomas; Wiering, Mark
    Flooding is the most common of all natural disasters and accounts for large numbers of casualties and a high amount of economic damage worldwide. To be ‘flood resilient’, countries should have sufficient capacity to resist, the capacity to absorb and recover, and the capacity to transform and adapt. Based on international comparative research, we conclude that six key governance strategies will enhance ‘flood resilience’ and will secure the necessary capacities. These strategies pertain to: (i) the diversification of flood risk management approaches; (ii) the alignment of flood risk management approaches to overcome fragmentation; (iii) the involvement, cooperation, and alignment of both public and private actors in flood risk management; (iv) the presence of adequate formal rules that balance legal certainty and flexibility; (v) the assurance of sufficient financial and other types of resources; (vi) the adoption of normative principles that adequately deal with distributional effects. These governance strategies appear to be relevant across different physical and institutional contexts. The findings may also hold valuable lessons for the governance of climate adaptation more generally.