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Author: Kurths, Jürgen × Author: Lin, Wei × End date: 2023 × Start date: 2020 ×

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    Partial cross mapping eliminates indirect causal influences
    ([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2020) Leng, Siyang; Ma, Huanfei; Kurths, Jürgen; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Lin, Wei; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Chen, Luonan
    Causality detection likely misidentifies indirect causations as direct ones, due to the effect of causation transitivity. Although several methods in traditional frameworks have been proposed to avoid such misinterpretations, there still is a lack of feasible methods for identifying direct causations from indirect ones in the challenging situation where the variables of the underlying dynamical system are non-separable and weakly or moderately interacting. Here, we solve this problem by developing a data-based, model-independent method of partial cross mapping based on an articulated integration of three tools from nonlinear dynamics and statistics: phase-space reconstruction, mutual cross mapping, and partial correlation. We demonstrate our method by using data from different representative models and real-world systems. As direct causations are keys to the fundamental underpinnings of a variety of complex dynamics, we anticipate our method to be indispensable in unlocking and deciphering the inner mechanisms of real systems in diverse disciplines from data.
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    How Price-Based Frequency Regulation Impacts Stability in Power Grids: A Complex Network Perspective
    (London : Hindawi, 2020) Ji, Peng; Zhu, Lipeng; Lu, Chao; Lin, Wei; Kurths, Jürgen
    With the deregulation of modern power grids, electricity markets are playing a more and more important role in power grid operation and control. However, it is still questionable how the real-time electricity price-based operation affects power grid stability. From a complex network perspective, here we investigate the dynamical interactions between price-based frequency regulations and physical networks, which results in an interesting finding that a local minimum of network stability occurs when the response strength of generators/consumers to the varying price increases. A case study of the real world-based China Southern Power Grid demonstrates the finding and exhibits a feasible approach to network stability enhancement in smart grids. This also provides guidance for potential upgrade and expansion of the current power grids in a cleaner and safer way. © 2020 Peng Ji et al.