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Author: Kurths, Jürgen × Author: Marwan, Norbert × End date: 2022 × Start date: 2021 × End date: 2023 ×

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Now showing 1 - 7 of 7
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    Complex systems approaches for Earth system data analysis
    (Bristol : IOP Publ., 2021) Boers, Niklas; Kurths, Jürgen; Marwan, Norbert
    Complex systems can, to a first approximation, be characterized by the fact that their dynamics emerging at the macroscopic level cannot be easily explained from the microscopic dynamics of the individual constituents of the system. This property of complex systems can be identified in virtually all natural systems surrounding us, but also in many social, economic, and technological systems. The defining characteristics of complex systems imply that their dynamics can often only be captured from the analysis of simulated or observed data. Here, we summarize recent advances in nonlinear data analysis of both simulated and real-world complex systems, with a focus on recurrence analysis for the investigation of individual or small sets of time series, and complex networks for the analysis of possibly very large, spatiotemporal datasets. We review and explain the recent success of these two key concepts of complexity science with an emphasis on applications for the analysis of geoscientific and in particular (palaeo-) climate data. In particular, we present several prominent examples where challenging problems in Earth system and climate science have been successfully addressed using recurrence analysis and complex networks. We outline several open questions for future lines of research in the direction of data-based complex system analysis, again with a focus on applications in the Earth sciences, and suggest possible combinations with suitable machine learning approaches. Beyond Earth system analysis, these methods have proven valuable also in many other scientific disciplines, such as neuroscience, physiology, epidemics, or engineering.
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    Optimal design of hydrometric station networks based on complex network analysis
    (Munich : EGU, 2020) Agarwal, Ankit; Marwan, Norbert; Maheswaran, Rathinasamy; Ozturk, Ugur; Kurths, Jürgen; Merz, Bruno
    Hydrometric networks play a vital role in providing information for decision-making in water resource management. They should be set up optimally to provide as much information as possible that is as accurate as possible and, at the same time, be cost-effective. Although the design of hydrometric networks is a well-identified problem in hydrometeorology and has received considerable attention, there is still scope for further advancement. In this study, we use complex network analysis, defined as a collection of nodes interconnected by links, to propose a new measure that identifies critical nodes of station networks. The approach can support the design and redesign of hydrometric station networks. The science of complex networks is a relatively young field and has gained significant momentum over the last few years in different areas such as brain networks, social networks, technological networks, or climate networks. The identification of influential nodes in complex networks is an important field of research. We propose a new node-ranking measure - the weighted degree-betweenness (WDB) measure - to evaluate the importance of nodes in a network. It is compared to previously proposed measures used on synthetic sample networks and then applied to a real-world rain gauge network comprising 1229 stations across Germany to demonstrate its applicability. The proposed measure is evaluated using the decline rate of the network efficiency and the kriging error. The results suggest that WDB effectively quantifies the importance of rain gauges, although the benefits of the method need to be investigated in more detail © Author(s) 2020.
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    Predicting the data structure prior to extreme events from passive observables using echo state network
    (Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2022) Banerjee, Abhirup; Mishra, Arindam; Dana, Syamal K.; Hens, Chittaranjan; Kapitaniak, Tomasz; Kurths, Jürgen; Marwan, Norbert
    Extreme events are defined as events that largely deviate from the nominal state of the system as observed in a time series. Due to the rarity and uncertainty of their occurrence, predicting extreme events has been challenging. In real life, some variables (passive variables) often encode significant information about the occurrence of extreme events manifested in another variable (active variable). For example, observables such as temperature, pressure, etc., act as passive variables in case of extreme precipitation events. These passive variables do not show any large excursion from the nominal condition yet carry the fingerprint of the extreme events. In this study, we propose a reservoir computation-based framework that can predict the preceding structure or pattern in the time evolution of the active variable that leads to an extreme event using information from the passive variable. An appropriate threshold height of events is a prerequisite for detecting extreme events and improving the skill of their prediction. We demonstrate that the magnitude of extreme events and the appearance of a coherent pattern before the arrival of the extreme event in a time series affect the prediction skill. Quantitatively, we confirm this using a metric describing the mean phase difference between the input time signals, which decreases when the magnitude of the extreme event is relatively higher, thereby increasing the predictability skill.
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    Recurrence analysis of extreme event-like data
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geophysical Society, 2021) Banerjee, Abhirup; Goswami, Bedartha; Hirata, Yoshito; Eroglu, Deniz; Merz, Bruno; Kurths, Jürgen; Marwan, Norbert
    The identification of recurrences at various timescales in extreme event-like time series is challenging because of the rare occurrence of events which are separated by large temporal gaps. Most of the existing time series analysis techniques cannot be used to analyze an extreme event-like time series in its unaltered form. The study of the system dynamics by reconstruction of the phase space using the standard delay embedding method is not directly applicable to event-like time series as it assumes a Euclidean notion of distance between states in the phase space. The edit distance method is a novel approach that uses the point-process nature of events. We propose a modification of edit distance to analyze the dynamics of extreme event-like time series by incorporating a nonlinear function which takes into account the sparse distribution of extreme events and utilizes the physical significance of their temporal pattern. We apply the modified edit distance method to event-like data generated from point process as well as flood event series constructed from discharge data of the Mississippi River in the USA and compute their recurrence plots. From the recurrence analysis, we are able to quantify the deterministic properties of extreme event-like data. We also show that there is a significant serial dependency in the flood time series by using the random shuffle surrogate method.
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    Unravelling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via a non-linear multi-scale approach
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geophysical Society, 2019) Kurths, Jürgen; Agarwal, Ankit; Shukla, Roopam; Marwan, Norbert; Rathinasamy, Maheswaran; Caesar, Levke; Krishnan, Raghavan; Merz, Bruno
    A better understanding of precipitation dynamics in the Indian subcontinent is required since India's society depends heavily on reliable monsoon forecasts. We introduce a non-linear, multiscale approach, based on wavelets and event synchronization, for unravelling teleconnection influences on precipitation. We consider those climate patterns with the highest relevance for Indian precipitation. Our results suggest significant influences which are not well captured by only the wavelet coherence analysis, the state-of-the-art method in understanding linkages at multiple timescales. We find substantial variation across India and across timescales. In particular, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mainly influence precipitation in the south-east at interannual and decadal scales, respectively, whereas the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a strong connection to precipitation, particularly in the northern regions. The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) stretches across the whole country, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influences precipitation particularly in the central arid and semi-arid regions. The proposed method provides a powerful approach for capturing the dynamics of precipitation and, hence, helps improve precipitation forecasting. © 2019 Author(s).
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    Network-based identification and characterization of teleconnections on different scales
    ([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2019) Agarwal, Ankit; Caesar, Levke; Marwan, Norbert; Maheswaran, Rathinasamy; Merz, Bruno; Kurths, Jürgen
    Sea surface temperature (SST) patterns can – as surface climate forcing – affect weather and climate at large distances. One example is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that causes climate anomalies around the globe via teleconnections. Although several studies identified and characterized these teleconnections, our understanding of climate processes remains incomplete, since interactions and feedbacks are typically exhibited at unique or multiple temporal and spatial scales. This study characterizes the interactions between the cells of a global SST data set at different temporal and spatial scales using climate networks. These networks are constructed using wavelet multi-scale correlation that investigate the correlation between the SST time series at a range of scales allowing instantaneously deeper insights into the correlation patterns compared to traditional methods like empirical orthogonal functions or classical correlation analysis. This allows us to identify and visualise regions of – at a certain timescale – similarly evolving SSTs and distinguish them from those with long-range teleconnections to other ocean regions. Our findings re-confirm accepted knowledge about known highly linked SST patterns like ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, but also suggest new insights into the characteristics and origins of long-range teleconnections like the connection between ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole.
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    Universality in spectral condensation
    ([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2020) Pavithran, Induja; Unni, Vishnu R.; Varghese, Alan J.; Premraj, D.; Sujith, R. I.; Vijayan, C.; Saha, Abhishek; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen
    Self-organization is the spontaneous formation of spatial, temporal, or spatiotemporal patterns in complex systems far from equilibrium. During such self-organization, energy distributed in a broadband of frequencies gets condensed into a dominant mode, analogous to a condensation phenomenon. We call this phenomenon spectral condensation and study its occurrence in fluid mechanical, optical and electronic systems. We define a set of spectral measures to quantify this condensation spanning several dynamical systems. Further, we uncover an inverse power law behaviour of spectral measures with the power corresponding to the dominant peak in the power spectrum in all the aforementioned systems.