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Author: Kurths, Jürgen × End date: 2023 × Start date: 2022 × End date: 2023 × Start date: 2020 × Publisher: [London] : IOP ×

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Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    Efficient network immunization strategy based on generalized Herfindahl–Hirschman index
    ([London] : IOP, 2021) Chen, Peng; Qi, Mingze; Lu, Xin; Duan, Xiaojun; Kurths, Jürgen
    The topic of finding effective strategies to restrain epidemic spreading in complex networks is of current interest. A widely used approach for epidemic containment is the fragmentation of the contact networks through immunization. However, due to the limitation of immune resources, we cannot always fragment the contact network completely. In this study, based on the size distribution of connected components for the network, we designed a risk indicator of epidemic outbreaks, the generalized Herfindahl–Hirschman index (GHI), which measures the upper bound of the expected infection's prevalence (the fraction of infected nodes) in random outbreaks. An immunization approach based on minimizing GHI is developed to reduce the infection risk for individuals in the network. Experimental results show that our immunization strategy could effectively decrease the infection's prevalence as compared to other existing strategies, especially against infectious diseases with higher infection rates or lower recovery rates. The findings provide an efficient and practicable strategy for immunization against epidemic diseases.
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    Neural partial differential equations for chaotic systems
    ([London] : IOP, 2021) Gelbrecht, Maximilian; Boers, Niklas; Kurths, Jürgen
    When predicting complex systems one typically relies on differential equation which can often be incomplete, missing unknown influences or higher order effects. By augmenting the equations with artificial neural networks we can compensate these deficiencies. We show that this can be used to predict paradigmatic, high-dimensional chaotic partial differential equations even when only short and incomplete datasets are available. The forecast horizon for these high dimensional systems is about an order of magnitude larger than the length of the training data.
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    Basin stability and limit cycles in a conceptual model for climate tipping cascades
    ([London] : IOP, 2020) Wunderling, Nico; Gelbrecht, Maximilian; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Kurths, Jürgen; Donges, Jonathan F.
    Tipping elements in the climate system are large-scale subregions of the Earth that might possess threshold behavior under global warming with large potential impacts on human societies. Here, we study a subset of five tipping elements and their interactions in a conceptual and easily extendable framework: the Greenland Ice Sheets (GIS) and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the El–Niño Southern Oscillation and the Amazon rainforest. In this nonlinear and multistable system, we perform a basin stability analysis to detect its stable states and their associated Earth system resilience. By combining these two methodologies with a large-scale Monte Carlo approach, we are able to propagate the many uncertainties associated with the critical temperature thresholds and the interaction strengths of the tipping elements. Using this approach, we perform a system-wide and comprehensive robustness analysis with more than 3.5 billion ensemble members. Further, we investigate dynamic regimes where some of the states lose stability and oscillations appear using a newly developed basin bifurcation analysis methodology. Our results reveal that the state of four or five tipped elements has the largest basin volume for large levels of global warming beyond 4 °C above pre-industrial climate conditions, representing a highly undesired state where a majority of the tipping elements reside in the transitioned regime. For lower levels of warming, states including disintegrated ice sheets on west Antarctica and Greenland have higher basin volume than other state configurations. Therefore in our model, we find that the large ice sheets are of particular importance for Earth system resilience. We also detect the emergence of limit cycles for 0.6% of all ensemble members at rare parameter combinations. Such limit cycle oscillations mainly occur between the GIS and AMOC (86%), due to their negative feedback coupling. These limit cycles point to possibly dangerous internal modes of variability in the climate system that could have played a role in paleoclimatic dynamics such as those unfolding during the Pleistocene ice age cycles.