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Multiscale Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Events in the Gomati River Basin, India
Accelerating climate change is causing considerable changes in extreme events, leading to immense socioeconomic loss of life and property. In this study, we investigate the characteristics of extreme climate events at a regional scale to ‐understand these events’ propagation in the near fu-ture. We have considered sixteen extreme climate indices defined by the World Meteorological Or-ganization’s Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices from a long‐term dataset (1951– 2018) of 53 locations in Gomati River Basin, North India. We computed the present and future spatial variation of theses indices using the Sen’s slope estimator and Hurst exponent analysis. The periodicities and non‐stationary features were estimated using the continuous wavelet transform. Bivariate copulas were fitted to estimate the joint probabilities and return periods for certain com-binations of indices. The study results show different variation in the patterns of the extreme climate indices: D95P, R95TOT, RX5D, and RX showed negative trends for all stations over the basin. The number of dry days (DD) showed positive trends over the basin at 36 stations out of those 17 stations are statistically significant. A sustainable decreasing trend is observed for D95P at all stations, indi-cating a reduction in precipitation in the future. DD exhibits a sustainable decreasing trend at almost all the stations over the basin barring a few exceptions highlight that the basin is turning drier. The wavelet power spectrum for D95P showed significant power distributed across the 2–16‐year bands, and the two‐year period was dominant in the global power spectrum around 1970–1990. One interest-ing finding is that a dominant two‐year period in D95P has changed to the four years after 1984 and remains in the past two decades. The joint return period’s resulting values are more significant than values resulting from univariate analysis (R95TOT with 44% and RTWD of 1450 mm). The difference in values highlights that ignoring the mutual dependence can lead to an underestimation of extremes. © 2021 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
Complex network approach for detecting tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive natural hazards that pose a serious threat to society, particularly to those in the coastal regions. In this work, we study the temporal evolution of the regional weather conditions in relation to the occurrence of TCs using climate networks. Climate networks encode the interactions among climate variables at different locations on the Earth’s surface, and in particular, time-evolving climate networks have been successfully applied to study different climate phenomena at comparably long time scales, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, different monsoon systems, or the climatic impacts of volcanic eruptions. Here, we develop and apply a complex network approach suitable for the investigation of the relatively short-lived TCs. We show that our proposed methodology has the potential to identify TCs and their tracks from mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. We use the ERA5 reanalysis MSLP data to construct successive networks of overlapping, short-length time windows for the regions under consideration, where we focus on the north Indian Ocean and the tropical north Atlantic Ocean. We compare the spatial features of various topological properties of the network, and the spatial scales involved, in the absence and presence of a cyclone. We find that network measures such as degree and clustering exhibit significant signatures of TCs and have striking similarities with their tracks. The study of the network topology over time scales relevant to TCs allows us to obtain crucial insights into the effects of TCs on the spatial connectivity structure of sea-level pressure fields.
Evolving climate network perspectives on global surface air temperature effects of ENSO and strong volcanic eruptions
Episodically occurring internal (climatic) and external (non-climatic) disruptions of normal climate variability are known to both affect spatio-temporal patterns of global surface air temperatures (SAT) at time-scales between multiple weeks and several years. The magnitude and spatial manifestation of the corresponding effects depend strongly on the specific type of perturbation and may range from weak spatially coherent yet regionally confined trends to a global reorganization of co-variability due to the excitation or inhibition of certain large-scale teleconnectivity patterns. Here, we employ functional climate network analysis to distinguish qualitatively the global climate responses to different phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from those to the three largest volcanic eruptions since the mid-20th century as the two most prominent types of recurrent climate disruptions. Our results confirm that strong ENSO episodes can cause a temporary breakdown of the normal hierarchical organization of the global SAT field, which is characterized by the simultaneous emergence of consistent regional temperature trends and strong teleconnections. By contrast, the most recent strong volcanic eruptions exhibited primarily regional effects rather than triggering additional long-range teleconnections that would not have been present otherwise. By relying on several complementary network characteristics, our results contribute to a better understanding of climate network properties by differentiating between climate variability reorganization mechanisms associated with internal variability versus such triggered by non-climatic abrupt and localized perturbations.
Improving the LPJmL4-SPITFIRE vegetation–fire model for South America using satellite data
Vegetation fires influence global vegetation distribution, ecosystem functioning, and global carbon cycling. Specifically in South America, changes in fire occurrence together with land-use change accelerate ecosystem fragmentation and increase the vulnerability of tropical forests and savannas to climate change. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are valuable tools to estimate the effects of fire on ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling under future climate changes. However, most fire-enabled DGVMs have problems in capturing the magnitude, spatial patterns, and temporal dynamics of burned area as observed by satellites. As fire is controlled by the interplay of weather conditions, vegetation properties, and human activities, fire modules in DGVMs can be improved in various aspects. In this study we focus on improving the controls of climate and hence fuel moisture content on fire danger in the LPJmL4-SPITFIRE DGVM in South America, especially for the Brazilian fire-prone biomes of Caatinga and Cerrado. We therefore test two alternative model formulations (standard Nesterov Index and a newly implemented water vapor pressure deficit) for climate effects on fire danger within a formal model–data integration setup where we estimate model parameters against satellite datasets of burned area (GFED4) and aboveground biomass of trees. Our results show that the optimized model improves the representation of spatial patterns and the seasonal to interannual dynamics of burned area especially in the Cerrado and Caatinga regions. In addition, the model improves the simulation of aboveground biomass and the spatial distribution of plant functional types (PFTs). We obtained the best results by using the water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) for the calculation of fire danger. The VPD includes, in comparison to the Nesterov Index, a representation of the air humidity and the vegetation density. This work shows the successful application of a systematic model–data integration setup, as well as the integration of a new fire danger formulation, in order to optimize a process-based fire-enabled DGVM. It further highlights the potential of this approach to achieve a new level of accuracy in comprehensive global fire modeling and prediction.
Novel fixed-time stabilization of quaternion-valued BAMNNs with disturbances and time-varying coefficients
In this paper, with the quaternion number and time-varying coefficients introduced into traditional BAMNNs, the model of quaternion-valued BAMNNs are formulated. For the first time, fixed-time stabilization of time-varying quaternion-valued BAMNNs is investigated. A novel fixed-time control method is adopted, in which the choice of the Lyapunov function is more general than in most previous results. To cope with the noncommutativity of the quaternion multiplication, two different fixed-time control methods are provided, a decomposition method and a non-decomposition method. Furthermore, to reduce the control strength and improve control efficiency, an adaptive fixed-time control strategy is proposed. Lastly, numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results. © 2020 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press.
Development of structural correlations and synchronization from adaptive rewiring in networks of Kuramoto oscillators
Synchronization of non-identical oscillators coupled through complex networks is an important example of collective behavior, and it is interesting to ask how the structural organization of network interactions influences this process. Several studies have explored and uncovered optimal topologies for synchronization by making purposeful alterations to a network. On the other hand, the connectivity patterns of many natural systems are often not static, but are rather modulated over time according to their dynamics. However, this co-evolution and the extent to which the dynamics of the individual units can shape the organization of the network itself are less well understood. Here, we study initially randomly connected but locally adaptive networks of Kuramoto oscillators. In particular, the system employs a co-evolutionary rewiring strategy that depends only on the instantaneous, pairwise phase differences of neighboring oscillators, and that conserves the total number of edges, allowing the effects of local reorganization to be isolated. We find that a simple rule-which preserves connections between more outof- phase oscillators while rewiring connections between more in-phase oscillators-can cause initially disordered networks to organize into more structured topologies that support enhanced synchronization dynamics. We examine how this process unfolds over time, finding a dependence on the intrinsic frequencies of the oscillators, the global coupling, and the network density, in terms of how the adaptive mechanism reorganizes the network and influences the dynamics. Importantly, for large enough coupling and after sufficient adaptation, the resulting networks exhibit interesting characteristics, including degree-frequency and frequency-neighbor frequency correlations. These properties have previously been associated with optimal synchronization or explosive transitions in which the networks were constructed using global information. On the contrary, by considering a time-dependent interplay between structure and dynamics, this work offers a mechanism through which emergent phenomena and organization can arise in complex systems utilizing local rules.
Anticipation-induced social tipping: can the environment be stabilised by social dynamics?
In the past decades, human activities caused global Earth system changes, e.g., climate change or biodiversity loss. Simultaneously, these associated impacts have increased environmental awareness within societies across the globe, thereby leading to dynamical feedbacks between the social and natural Earth system. Contemporary modelling attempts of Earth system dynamics rarely incorporate such co-evolutions and interactions are mostly studied unidirectionally through direct or remembered past impacts. Acknowledging that societies have the additional capability for foresight, this work proposes a conceptual feedback model of socio-ecological co-evolution with the specific construct of anticipation acting as a mediator between the social and natural system. Our model reproduces results from previous sociological threshold models with bistability if one assumes a static environment. Once the environment changes in response to societal behaviour, the system instead converges towards a globally stable, but not necessarily desired, attractor. Ultimately, we show that anticipation of future ecological states then leads to metastability of the system where desired states can persist for a long time. We thereby demonstrate that foresight and anticipation form an important mechanism which, once its time horizon becomes large enough, fosters social tipping towards behaviour that can stabilise the environment and prevents potential socio-ecological collapse.
Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming
With progressing global warming, there is an increased risk that one or several tipping elements in the climate system might cross a critical threshold, resulting in severe consequences for the global climate, ecosystems and human societies. While the underlying processes are fairly well-understood, it is unclear how their interactions might impact the overall stability of the Earth's climate system. As of yet, this cannot be fully analysed with state-of-the-art Earth system models due to computational constraints as well as some missing and uncertain process representations of certain tipping elements. Here, we explicitly study the effects of known physical interactions among the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest using a conceptual network approach. We analyse the risk of domino effects being triggered by each of the individual tipping elements under global warming in equilibrium experiments. In these experiments, we propagate the uncertainties in critical temperature thresholds, interaction strengths and interaction structure via large ensembles of simulations in a Monte Carlo approach. Overall, we find that the interactions tend to destabilise the network of tipping elements. Furthermore, our analysis reveals the qualitative role of each of the four tipping elements within the network, showing that the polar ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica are oftentimes the initiators of tipping cascades, while the AMOC acts as a mediator transmitting cascades. This indicates that the ice sheets, which are already at risk of transgressing their temperature thresholds within the Paris range of 1.5 to 2 ∘C, are of particular importance for the stability of the climate system as a whole.
Complex systems in the spotlight: next steps after the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics
The 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics recognized the fundamental role of complex systems in the natural sciences. In order to celebrate this milestone, this editorial presents the point of view of the editorial board of JPhys Complexity on the achievements, challenges, and future prospects of the field. To distinguish the voice and the opinion of each editor, this editorial consists of a series of editor perspectives and reflections on few selected themes. A comprehensive and multi-faceted view of the field of complexity science emerges. We hope and trust that this open discussion will be of inspiration for future research on complex systems.
Dynamical phenomena in complex networks: fundamentals and applications
This special issue presents a series of 33 contributions in the area of dynamical networks and their applications. Part of the contributions is devoted to theoretical and methodological aspects of dynamical networks, such as collective dynamics of excitable systems, spreading processes, coarsening, synchronization, delayed interactions, and others. A particular focus is placed on applications to neuroscience and Earth science, especially functional climate networks. Among the highlights, various methods for dealing with noise and stochastic processes in neuroscience are presented. A method for constructing weighted networks with arbitrary topologies from a single dynamical node with delayed feedback is introduced. Also, a generalization of the concept of geodesic distances, a path-integral formulation of network-based measures is developed, which provides fundamental insights into the dynamics of disease transmission. The contributions from the Earth science application field substantiate predictive power of climate networks to study challenging Earth processes and phenomena.