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- ItemImproving the LPJmL4-SPITFIRE vegetation–fire model for South America using satellite data(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2019) Drüke, Markus; Forkel, Matthias; von Bloh, Werner; Sakschewski, Boris; Cardoso, Manoel; Bustamante, Mercedes; Kurths, Jürgen; Thonicke, KirstenVegetation fires influence global vegetation distribution, ecosystem functioning, and global carbon cycling. Specifically in South America, changes in fire occurrence together with land-use change accelerate ecosystem fragmentation and increase the vulnerability of tropical forests and savannas to climate change. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are valuable tools to estimate the effects of fire on ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling under future climate changes. However, most fire-enabled DGVMs have problems in capturing the magnitude, spatial patterns, and temporal dynamics of burned area as observed by satellites. As fire is controlled by the interplay of weather conditions, vegetation properties, and human activities, fire modules in DGVMs can be improved in various aspects. In this study we focus on improving the controls of climate and hence fuel moisture content on fire danger in the LPJmL4-SPITFIRE DGVM in South America, especially for the Brazilian fire-prone biomes of Caatinga and Cerrado. We therefore test two alternative model formulations (standard Nesterov Index and a newly implemented water vapor pressure deficit) for climate effects on fire danger within a formal model–data integration setup where we estimate model parameters against satellite datasets of burned area (GFED4) and aboveground biomass of trees. Our results show that the optimized model improves the representation of spatial patterns and the seasonal to interannual dynamics of burned area especially in the Cerrado and Caatinga regions. In addition, the model improves the simulation of aboveground biomass and the spatial distribution of plant functional types (PFTs). We obtained the best results by using the water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) for the calculation of fire danger. The VPD includes, in comparison to the Nesterov Index, a representation of the air humidity and the vegetation density. This work shows the successful application of a systematic model–data integration setup, as well as the integration of a new fire danger formulation, in order to optimize a process-based fire-enabled DGVM. It further highlights the potential of this approach to achieve a new level of accuracy in comprehensive global fire modeling and prediction.
- ItemCoupling between leg muscle activation and EEG during normal walking, intentional stops, and freezing of gait in Parkinson's disease(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2019) Günther, Moritz; Bartsch, Ronny P.; Miron-Shahar, Yael; Hassin-Baer, Sharon; Inzelberg, Rivka; Kurths, Jürgen; Plotnik, Meir; Kantelhardt, Jan W.In this paper, we apply novel techniques for characterizing leg muscle activation patterns via electromyograms (EMGs) and for relating them to changes in electroencephalogram (EEG) activity during gait experiments. Specifically, we investigate changes of leg-muscle EMG amplitudes and EMG frequencies during walking, intentional stops, and unintended freezing-of-gait (FOG) episodes. FOG is a frequent paroxysmal gait disturbance occurring in many patients suffering from Parkinson's disease (PD). We find that EMG amplitudes and frequencies do not change significantly during FOG episodes with respect to walking, while drastic changes occur during intentional stops. Phase synchronization between EMG signals is most pronounced during walking in controls and reduced in PD patients. By analyzing cross-correlations between changes in EMG patterns and brain-wave amplitudes (from EEGs), we find an increase in EEG-EMG coupling at the beginning of stop and FOG episodes. Our results may help to better understand the enigmatic pathophysiology of FOG, to differentiate between FOG events and other gait disturbances, and ultimately to improve diagnostic procedures for patients suffering from PD. Copyright © 2019 Günther, Bartsch, Miron-Shahar, Hassin-Baer, Inzelberg, Kurths, Plotnik and Kantelhardt.
- ItemNeural Interactions in a Spatially-Distributed Cortical Network During Perceptual Decision-Making(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2019) Maksimenko, Vladimir A.; Frolov, Nikita S.; Hramov, Alexander E.; Runnova, Anastasia E.; Grubov, Vadim V.; Kurths, Jürgen; Pisarchik, Alexander N.Behavioral experiments evidence that attention is not maintained at a constant level, but fluctuates with time. Recent studies associate such fluctuations with dynamics of attention-related cortical networks, however the exact mechanism remains unclear. To address this issue, we consider functional neuronal interactions during the accomplishment of a reaction time (RT) task which requires sustained attention. The participants are subjected to a binary classification of a large number of presented ambiguous visual stimuli with different degrees of ambiguity. Generally, high ambiguity causes high RT and vice versa. However, we demonstrate that RT fluctuates even when the stimulus ambiguity remains unchanged. The analysis of neuronal activity reveals that the subject's behavioral response is preceded by the formation of a distributed functional network in the β-frequency band. This network is characterized by high connectivity in the frontal cortex and supposed to subserve a decision-making process. We show that neither the network structure nor the duration of its formation depend on RT and stimulus ambiguity. In turn, RT is related to the moment of time when the β-band functional network emerges. We hypothesize that RT is affected by the processes preceding the decision-making stage, e.g., encoding visual sensory information and extracting decision-relevant features from raw sensory information. © Copyright © 2019 Maksimenko, Frolov, Hramov, Runnova, Grubov, Kurths and Pisarchik.
- ItemBistable firing pattern in a neural network model(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2019) Protachevicz, Paulo R.; Borges, Fernando S.; Lameu, Ewandson L.; Ji, Peng; Iarosz, Kelly C.; Kihara, Alexandre H.; Caldas, Ibere L.; Szezech Jr., Jose D.; Baptista, Murilo S.; Macau, Elbert E.N.; Antonopoulos, Chris G.; Batista, Antonio M.; Kurths, JürgenExcessively high, neural synchronization has been associated with epileptic seizures, one of the most common brain diseases worldwide. A better understanding of neural synchronization mechanisms can thus help control or even treat epilepsy. In this paper, we study neural synchronization in a random network where nodes are neurons with excitatory and inhibitory synapses, and neural activity for each node is provided by the adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire model. In this framework, we verify that the decrease in the influence of inhibition can generate synchronization originating from a pattern of desynchronized spikes. The transition from desynchronous spikes to synchronous bursts of activity, induced by varying the synaptic coupling, emerges in a hysteresis loop due to bistability where abnormal (excessively high synchronous) regimes exist. We verify that, for parameters in the bistability regime, a square current pulse can trigger excessively high (abnormal) synchronization, a process that can reproduce features of epileptic seizures. Then, we show that it is possible to suppress such abnormal synchronization by applying a small-amplitude external current on > 10% of the neurons in the network. Our results demonstrate that external electrical stimulation not only can trigger synchronous behavior, but more importantly, it can be used as a means to reduce abnormal synchronization and thus, control or treat effectively epileptic seizures. © 2019 Protachevicz, Borges, Lameu, Ji, Iarosz, Kihara, Caldas, Szezech, Baptista, Macau, Antonopoulos, Batista and Kurths.
- ItemFully solvable lower dimensional dynamics of Cartesian product of Kuramoto models([London] : IOP, 2019) Chen, Zewen; Zou, Yong; Guan, Shuguang; Liu, Zonghua; Kurths, JürgenImplementing a positive correlation between the natural frequencies of nodes and their connectivity on a single star graph leads to a pronounced explosive transition to synchronization, additionally presenting hysteresis behavior. From the viewpoint of network connectivity, a star has been considered as a building motif to generate a big graph by graph operations. On the other hand, we propose to construct complex synchronization dynamics by applying the Cartesian product of two Kuramoto models on two star networks. On the product model, the lower dimensional equations describing the ensemble dynamics in terms of collective order parameters are fully solved by the Watanabe-Strogatz method. Different graph parameter choices lead to three different interacting scenarios of the hysteresis areas of two individual factor graphs, which further change the basins of attraction of multiple fixed points. Furthermore, we obtain coupling regimes where cluster synchronization states are often present on the product graph and the number of clusters is fully controlled. More specifically, oscillators on one star graph are synchronized while those on the other star are not synchronized, which induces clustered state on the product model. The numerical results agree perfectly with the theoretic predictions. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd on behalf of the Institute of Physics and Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft.
- ItemUnravelling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via a non-linear multi-scale approach(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geophysical Society, 2019) Kurths, Jürgen; Agarwal, Ankit; Shukla, Roopam; Marwan, Norbert; Rathinasamy, Maheswaran; Caesar, Levke; Krishnan, Raghavan; Merz, BrunoA better understanding of precipitation dynamics in the Indian subcontinent is required since India's society depends heavily on reliable monsoon forecasts. We introduce a non-linear, multiscale approach, based on wavelets and event synchronization, for unravelling teleconnection influences on precipitation. We consider those climate patterns with the highest relevance for Indian precipitation. Our results suggest significant influences which are not well captured by only the wavelet coherence analysis, the state-of-the-art method in understanding linkages at multiple timescales. We find substantial variation across India and across timescales. In particular, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mainly influence precipitation in the south-east at interannual and decadal scales, respectively, whereas the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a strong connection to precipitation, particularly in the northern regions. The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) stretches across the whole country, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influences precipitation particularly in the central arid and semi-arid regions. The proposed method provides a powerful approach for capturing the dynamics of precipitation and, hence, helps improve precipitation forecasting. © 2019 Author(s).
- ItemNetwork-based identification and characterization of teleconnections on different scales([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2019) Agarwal, Ankit; Caesar, Levke; Marwan, Norbert; Maheswaran, Rathinasamy; Merz, Bruno; Kurths, JürgenSea surface temperature (SST) patterns can – as surface climate forcing – affect weather and climate at large distances. One example is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that causes climate anomalies around the globe via teleconnections. Although several studies identified and characterized these teleconnections, our understanding of climate processes remains incomplete, since interactions and feedbacks are typically exhibited at unique or multiple temporal and spatial scales. This study characterizes the interactions between the cells of a global SST data set at different temporal and spatial scales using climate networks. These networks are constructed using wavelet multi-scale correlation that investigate the correlation between the SST time series at a range of scales allowing instantaneously deeper insights into the correlation patterns compared to traditional methods like empirical orthogonal functions or classical correlation analysis. This allows us to identify and visualise regions of – at a certain timescale – similarly evolving SSTs and distinguish them from those with long-range teleconnections to other ocean regions. Our findings re-confirm accepted knowledge about known highly linked SST patterns like ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, but also suggest new insights into the characteristics and origins of long-range teleconnections like the connection between ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole.
- ItemStatistical Properties and Predictability of Extreme Epileptic Events([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2019) Frolov, Nikita S.; Grubov, Vadim V.; Maksimenko, Vladimir A.; Lüttjohann, Annika; Makarov, Vladimir V.; Pavlov, Alexey N.; Sitnikova, Evgenia; Pisarchik, Alexander N.; Kurths, Jürgen; Hramov, Alexander E.The use of extreme events theory for the analysis of spontaneous epileptic brain activity is a relevant multidisciplinary problem. It allows deeper understanding of pathological brain functioning and unraveling mechanisms underlying the epileptic seizure emergence along with its predictability. The latter is a desired goal in epileptology which might open the way for new therapies to control and prevent epileptic attacks. With this goal in mind, we applied the extreme event theory for studying statistical properties of electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings of WAG/Rij rats with genetic predisposition to absence epilepsy. Our approach allowed us to reveal extreme events inherent in this pathological spiking activity, highly pronounced in a particular frequency range. The return interval analysis showed that the epileptic seizures exhibit a highly-structural behavior during the active phase of the spiking activity. Obtained results evidenced a possibility for early (up to 7 s) prediction of epileptic seizures based on consideration of EEG statistical properties.