39 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 39
- ItemMultiscale Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Events in the Gomati River Basin, India(Basel : MDPI, 2021) Kalyan, AVS; Ghose, Dillip Kumar; Thalagapu, Rahul; Guntu, Ravi Kumar; Agarwal, Ankit; Kurths, Jürgen; Rathinasamy, MaheswaranAccelerating climate change is causing considerable changes in extreme events, leading to immense socioeconomic loss of life and property. In this study, we investigate the characteristics of extreme climate events at a regional scale to ‐understand these events’ propagation in the near fu-ture. We have considered sixteen extreme climate indices defined by the World Meteorological Or-ganization’s Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices from a long‐term dataset (1951– 2018) of 53 locations in Gomati River Basin, North India. We computed the present and future spatial variation of theses indices using the Sen’s slope estimator and Hurst exponent analysis. The periodicities and non‐stationary features were estimated using the continuous wavelet transform. Bivariate copulas were fitted to estimate the joint probabilities and return periods for certain com-binations of indices. The study results show different variation in the patterns of the extreme climate indices: D95P, R95TOT, RX5D, and RX showed negative trends for all stations over the basin. The number of dry days (DD) showed positive trends over the basin at 36 stations out of those 17 stations are statistically significant. A sustainable decreasing trend is observed for D95P at all stations, indi-cating a reduction in precipitation in the future. DD exhibits a sustainable decreasing trend at almost all the stations over the basin barring a few exceptions highlight that the basin is turning drier. The wavelet power spectrum for D95P showed significant power distributed across the 2–16‐year bands, and the two‐year period was dominant in the global power spectrum around 1970–1990. One interest-ing finding is that a dominant two‐year period in D95P has changed to the four years after 1984 and remains in the past two decades. The joint return period’s resulting values are more significant than values resulting from univariate analysis (R95TOT with 44% and RTWD of 1450 mm). The difference in values highlights that ignoring the mutual dependence can lead to an underestimation of extremes. © 2021 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
- ItemInteracting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2021) Wunderling, Nico; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kurths, Jürgen; Winkelmann, RicardaWith progressing global warming, there is an increased risk that one or several tipping elements in the climate system might cross a critical threshold, resulting in severe consequences for the global climate, ecosystems and human societies. While the underlying processes are fairly well-understood, it is unclear how their interactions might impact the overall stability of the Earth's climate system. As of yet, this cannot be fully analysed with state-of-the-art Earth system models due to computational constraints as well as some missing and uncertain process representations of certain tipping elements. Here, we explicitly study the effects of known physical interactions among the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest using a conceptual network approach. We analyse the risk of domino effects being triggered by each of the individual tipping elements under global warming in equilibrium experiments. In these experiments, we propagate the uncertainties in critical temperature thresholds, interaction strengths and interaction structure via large ensembles of simulations in a Monte Carlo approach. Overall, we find that the interactions tend to destabilise the network of tipping elements. Furthermore, our analysis reveals the qualitative role of each of the four tipping elements within the network, showing that the polar ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica are oftentimes the initiators of tipping cascades, while the AMOC acts as a mediator transmitting cascades. This indicates that the ice sheets, which are already at risk of transgressing their temperature thresholds within the Paris range of 1.5 to 2 ∘C, are of particular importance for the stability of the climate system as a whole.
- ItemComplex network approach for detecting tropical cyclones(Berlin ; Heidelberg : Springer, 2021) Gupta, Shraddha; Boers, Niklas; Pappenberger, Florian; Kurths, JürgenTropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive natural hazards that pose a serious threat to society, particularly to those in the coastal regions. In this work, we study the temporal evolution of the regional weather conditions in relation to the occurrence of TCs using climate networks. Climate networks encode the interactions among climate variables at different locations on the Earth’s surface, and in particular, time-evolving climate networks have been successfully applied to study different climate phenomena at comparably long time scales, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, different monsoon systems, or the climatic impacts of volcanic eruptions. Here, we develop and apply a complex network approach suitable for the investigation of the relatively short-lived TCs. We show that our proposed methodology has the potential to identify TCs and their tracks from mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. We use the ERA5 reanalysis MSLP data to construct successive networks of overlapping, short-length time windows for the regions under consideration, where we focus on the north Indian Ocean and the tropical north Atlantic Ocean. We compare the spatial features of various topological properties of the network, and the spatial scales involved, in the absence and presence of a cyclone. We find that network measures such as degree and clustering exhibit significant signatures of TCs and have striking similarities with their tracks. The study of the network topology over time scales relevant to TCs allows us to obtain crucial insights into the effects of TCs on the spatial connectivity structure of sea-level pressure fields.
- ItemComplex systems in the spotlight: next steps after the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2023) Bianconi, Ginestra; Arenas, Alex; Biamonte, Jacob; Carr, Lincoln D; Kahng, Byungnam; Kertesz, Janos; Kurths, Jürgen; Lü, Linyuan; Masoller, Cristina; Motter, Adilson E; Perc, Matjaž; Radicchi, Filippo; Ramaswamy, Ramakrishna; Rodrigues, Francisco A; Sales-Pardo, Marta; San Miguel, Maxi; Thurner, Stefan; Yasseri, TahaThe 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics recognized the fundamental role of complex systems in the natural sciences. In order to celebrate this milestone, this editorial presents the point of view of the editorial board of JPhys Complexity on the achievements, challenges, and future prospects of the field. To distinguish the voice and the opinion of each editor, this editorial consists of a series of editor perspectives and reflections on few selected themes. A comprehensive and multi-faceted view of the field of complexity science emerges. We hope and trust that this open discussion will be of inspiration for future research on complex systems.
- ItemEvolving climate network perspectives on global surface air temperature effects of ENSO and strong volcanic eruptions(Berlin ; Heidelberg : Springer, 2021) Kittel, Tim; Ciemer, Catrin; Lotfi, Nastaran; Peron, Thomas; Rodrigues, Francisco; Kurths, Jürgen; Donner, Reik V.Episodically occurring internal (climatic) and external (non-climatic) disruptions of normal climate variability are known to both affect spatio-temporal patterns of global surface air temperatures (SAT) at time-scales between multiple weeks and several years. The magnitude and spatial manifestation of the corresponding effects depend strongly on the specific type of perturbation and may range from weak spatially coherent yet regionally confined trends to a global reorganization of co-variability due to the excitation or inhibition of certain large-scale teleconnectivity patterns. Here, we employ functional climate network analysis to distinguish qualitatively the global climate responses to different phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from those to the three largest volcanic eruptions since the mid-20th century as the two most prominent types of recurrent climate disruptions. Our results confirm that strong ENSO episodes can cause a temporary breakdown of the normal hierarchical organization of the global SAT field, which is characterized by the simultaneous emergence of consistent regional temperature trends and strong teleconnections. By contrast, the most recent strong volcanic eruptions exhibited primarily regional effects rather than triggering additional long-range teleconnections that would not have been present otherwise. By relying on several complementary network characteristics, our results contribute to a better understanding of climate network properties by differentiating between climate variability reorganization mechanisms associated with internal variability versus such triggered by non-climatic abrupt and localized perturbations.
- ItemAnticipation-induced social tipping: can the environment be stabilised by social dynamics?(Berlin ; Heidelberg : Springer, 2021) Müller, Paul Manuel; Heitzig, Jobst; Kurths, Jürgen; Lüdge, Kathy; Wiedermann, MarcIn the past decades, human activities caused global Earth system changes, e.g., climate change or biodiversity loss. Simultaneously, these associated impacts have increased environmental awareness within societies across the globe, thereby leading to dynamical feedbacks between the social and natural Earth system. Contemporary modelling attempts of Earth system dynamics rarely incorporate such co-evolutions and interactions are mostly studied unidirectionally through direct or remembered past impacts. Acknowledging that societies have the additional capability for foresight, this work proposes a conceptual feedback model of socio-ecological co-evolution with the specific construct of anticipation acting as a mediator between the social and natural system. Our model reproduces results from previous sociological threshold models with bistability if one assumes a static environment. Once the environment changes in response to societal behaviour, the system instead converges towards a globally stable, but not necessarily desired, attractor. Ultimately, we show that anticipation of future ecological states then leads to metastability of the system where desired states can persist for a long time. We thereby demonstrate that foresight and anticipation form an important mechanism which, once its time horizon becomes large enough, fosters social tipping towards behaviour that can stabilise the environment and prevents potential socio-ecological collapse.
- ItemDynamical phenomena in complex networks: fundamentals and applications(Berlin ; Heidelberg : Springer, 2021) Yanchuk, Serhiy; Roque, Antonio C.; Macau, Elbert E. N.; Kurths, JürgenThis special issue presents a series of 33 contributions in the area of dynamical networks and their applications. Part of the contributions is devoted to theoretical and methodological aspects of dynamical networks, such as collective dynamics of excitable systems, spreading processes, coarsening, synchronization, delayed interactions, and others. A particular focus is placed on applications to neuroscience and Earth science, especially functional climate networks. Among the highlights, various methods for dealing with noise and stochastic processes in neuroscience are presented. A method for constructing weighted networks with arbitrary topologies from a single dynamical node with delayed feedback is introduced. Also, a generalization of the concept of geodesic distances, a path-integral formulation of network-based measures is developed, which provides fundamental insights into the dynamics of disease transmission. The contributions from the Earth science application field substantiate predictive power of climate networks to study challenging Earth processes and phenomena.
- ItemPhotodynamic Opening of the Blood–Brain Barrier and the Meningeal Lymphatic System: The New Niche in Immunotherapy for Brain Tumors(Basel : MDPI, 2022) Semyachkina-Glushkovskaya, Oxana; Terskov, Andrey; Khorovodov, Alexander; Telnova, Valeria; Blokhina, Inna; Saranceva, Elena; Kurths, JürgenPhotodynamic therapy (PDT) is a promising add-on therapy to the current standard of care for patients with glioblastoma (GBM). The traditional explanation of the anti-cancer PDT effects involves the PDT-induced generation of a singlet oxygen in the GBM cells, which causes tumor cell death and microvasculature collapse. Recently, new vascular mechanisms of PDT associated with opening of the blood–brain barrier (OBBB) and the activation of functions of the meningeal lymphatic vessels have been discovered. In this review, we highlight the emerging trends and future promises of immunotherapy for brain tumors and discuss PDT-OBBB as a new niche and an important informative platform for the development of innovative pharmacological strategies for the modulation of brain tumor immunity and the improvement of immunotherapy for GBM.
- ItemIntranasal Delivery of Liposomes to Glioblastoma by Photostimulation of the Lymphatic System(Basel : MDPI, 2022) Semyachkina-Glushkovskaya, Oxana; Shirokov, Alexander; Blokhina, Inna; Telnova, Valeria; Vodovozova, Elena; Alekseeva, Anna; Boldyrev, Ivan; Fedosov, Ivan; Dubrovsky, Alexander; Khorovodov, Alexandr; Terskov, Andrey; Evsukova, Arina; Elovenko, Daria; Adushkina, Viktoria; Tzoy, Maria; Agranovich, Ilana; Kurths, Jürgen; Rafailov, EdikThe blood–brain barrier (BBB) limits the delivery of majority of cancer drugs and thereby complicates brain tumor treatment. The nasal-brain-lymphatic system is discussed as a pathway for brain drug delivery overcoming the BBB. However, in most cases, this method is not sufficient to achieve a therapeutic effect due to brain drug delivery in a short distance. Therefore, it is necessary to develop technologies to overcome the obstacles facing nose-to-brain delivery of promising pharmaceuticals. In this study, we clearly demonstrate intranasal delivery of liposomes to the mouse brain reaching glioblastoma (GBM). In the experiments with ablation of the meningeal lymphatic network, we report an important role of meningeal pathway for intranasal delivery of liposomes to the brain. Our data revealed that GBM is characterized by a dramatic reduction of intranasal delivery of liposomes to the brain that was significantly improved by near-infrared (1267 nm) photostimulation of the lymphatic vessels in the area of the cribriform plate and the meninges. These results open new perspectives for non-invasive improvement of efficiency of intranasal delivery of cancer drugs to the brain tissues using nanocarriers and near-infrared laser-based therapeutic devices, which are commercially available and widely used in clinical practice.
- ItemTeleconnections among tipping elements in the Earth system(London : Nature Publ. Group, 2023) Liu, Teng; Chen, Dean; Yang, Lan; Meng, Jun; Wang, Zanchenling; Ludescher, Josef; Fan, Jingfang; Yang, Saini; Chen, Deliang; Kurths, Jürgen; Chen, Xiaosong; Havlin, Shlomo; Schellnhuber, Hans JoachimTipping elements are components of the Earth system that may shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another at specific thresholds. It is not well understood to what degree tipping of one system can influence other regions or tipping elements. Here, we propose a climate network approach to analyse the global impacts of a prominent tipping element, the Amazon Rainforest Area (ARA). We find that the ARA exhibits strong correlations with regions such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and West Antarctic ice sheet. Models show that the identified teleconnection propagation path between the ARA and the TP is robust under climate change. In addition, we detect that TP snow cover extent has been losing stability since 2008. We further uncover that various climate extremes between the ARA and the TP are synchronized under climate change. Our framework highlights that tipping elements can be linked and also the potential predictability of cascading tipping dynamics.