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Author: Kurths, Jürgen × Type: article × search.filters.applied.f.series: Scientific Reports 10 (2020) ×

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    Epidemics with mutating infectivity on small-world networks
    ([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2020) Rüdiger, Sten; Plietzsch, Anton; Sagués, Francesc; Sokolov, Igor M.; Kurths, Jürgen
    Epidemics and evolution of many pathogens occur on similar timescales so that their dynamics are often entangled. Here, in a first step to study this problem theoretically, we analyze mutating pathogens spreading on simple SIR networks with grid-like connectivity. We have in mind the spatial aspect of epidemics, which often advance on transport links between hosts or groups of hosts such as cities or countries. We focus on the case of mutations that enhance an agent’s infection rate. We uncover that the small-world property, i.e., the presence of long-range connections, makes the network very vulnerable, supporting frequent supercritical mutations and bringing the network from disease extinction to full blown epidemic. For very large numbers of long-range links, however, the effect reverses and we find a reduced chance for large outbreaks. We study two cases, one with discrete number of mutational steps and one with a continuous genetic variable, and we analyze various scaling regimes. For the continuous case we derive a Fokker-Planck-like equation for the probability density and solve it for small numbers of shortcuts using the WKB approximation. Our analysis supports the claims that a potentiating mutation in the transmissibility might occur during an epidemic wave and not necessarily before its initiation. © 2020, The Author(s).
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    Dynamic Network Characteristics of Power-electronics-based Power Systems
    ([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2020) Ji, Yuxi; He, Wei; Cheng, Shijie; Kurths, Jürgen; Zhan, Meng
    Power flow studies in traditional power systems aim to uncover the stationary relationship between voltage amplitude and phase and active and reactive powers; they are important for both stationary and dynamic power system analysis. With the increasing penetration of large-scale power electronics devices including renewable generations interfaced with converters, the power systems become gradually power-electronics-dominant and correspondingly their dynamical behavior changes substantially. Due to the fast dynamics of converters, such as AC current controller, the quasi-stationary state approximation, which has been widely used in power systems, is no longer appropriate and should be reexamined. In this paper, for a better description of network characteristics, we develop a novel concept of dynamic power flow and uncover an explicit dynamic relation between the instantaneous powers and the voltage vectors. This mathematical relation has been well verified by simulations on transient analysis of a small power-electronics-based power system, and a small-signal frequency-domain stability analysis of a voltage source converter connected to an infinitely strong bus. These results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method and shed an improved light on our understanding of power-electronics-dominant power systems, whose dynamical nature remains obscure.
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    Universality in spectral condensation
    ([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2020) Pavithran, Induja; Unni, Vishnu R.; Varghese, Alan J.; Premraj, D.; Sujith, R. I.; Vijayan, C.; Saha, Abhishek; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen
    Self-organization is the spontaneous formation of spatial, temporal, or spatiotemporal patterns in complex systems far from equilibrium. During such self-organization, energy distributed in a broadband of frequencies gets condensed into a dominant mode, analogous to a condensation phenomenon. We call this phenomenon spectral condensation and study its occurrence in fluid mechanical, optical and electronic systems. We define a set of spectral measures to quantify this condensation spanning several dynamical systems. Further, we uncover an inverse power law behaviour of spectral measures with the power corresponding to the dominant peak in the power spectrum in all the aforementioned systems.