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- ItemAbrupt transitions in time series with uncertainties(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2018) Goswami, B.; Boers, N.; Rheinwalt, A.; Marwan, N.; Heitzig, J.; Breitenbach, S.F.M.; Kurths, J.Identifying abrupt transitions is a key question in various disciplines. Existing transition detection methods, however, do not rigorously account for time series uncertainties, often neglecting them altogether or assuming them to be independent and qualitatively similar. Here, we introduce a novel approach suited to handle uncertainties by representing the time series as a time-ordered sequence of probability density functions. We show how to detect abrupt transitions in such a sequence using the community structure of networks representing probabilities of recurrence. Using our approach, we detect transitions in global stock indices related to well-known periods of politico-economic volatility. We further uncover transitions in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation which coincide with periods of phase locking with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Finally, we provide for the first time an 'uncertainty-aware' framework which validates the hypothesis that ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic during the Holocene were synchronous with a weakened Asian summer monsoon.
- ItemIdentifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2015) Runge, J.; Petoukhov, V.; Donges, J.F.; Hlinka, J.; Jajcay, N.; Vejmelka, M.; Hartman, D.; Marwan, N.; Paluš, M.; Kurths, J.
- ItemA regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Smirnov, D.A.; Breitenbach, S.F.M.; Feulner, G.; Lechleitner, F.A.; Prufer, K.M.; Baldini, J.U.L.; Marwan, N.; Kurths, J.Understanding the influence of changes in solar activity on Earth's climate and distinguishing it from other forcings, such as volcanic activity, remains a major challenge for palaeoclimatology. This problem is best approached by investigating how these variables influenced past climate conditions as recorded in high precision paleoclimate archives. In particular, determining if the climate system response to these forcings changes through time is critical. Here we use the Wiener-Granger causality approach along with well-established cross-correlation analysis to investigate the causal relationship between solar activity, volcanic forcing, and climate as reflected in well-established Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainfall proxy records from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of volcanic activity on regional Central American climate over the last two millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000-1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.
- ItemA deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Boers, N.; Marwan, N.; Barbosa, H.M.J.; Kurths, J.The Amazon rainforest has been proposed as a tipping element of the earth system, with the possibility of a dieback of the entire ecosystem due to deforestation only of parts of the rainforest. Possible physical mechanisms behind such a transition are still subject to ongoing debates. Here, we use a specifically designed model to analyse the nonlinear couplings between the Amazon rainforest and the atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the South American continent. These couplings are associated with a westward cascade of precipitation and evapotranspiration across the Amazon. We investigate impacts of deforestation on the South American monsoonal circulation with particular focus on a previously neglected positive feedback related to condensational latent heating over the rainforest, which strongly enhances atmospheric moisture inflow from the Atlantic. Our results indicate the existence of a tipping point. In our model setup, crossing the tipping point causes precipitation reductions of up to 40% in non-deforested parts of the western Amazon and regions further downstream. The responsible mechanism is the breakdown of the aforementioned feedback, which occurs when deforestation reduces transpiration to a point where the available atmospheric moisture does not suffice anymore to release the latent heat needed to maintain the feedback.
- ItemNetworks from Flows - From Dynamics to Topology(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2014) Molkenthin, N.; Rehfeld, K.; Marwan, N.; Kurths, J.Complex network approaches have recently been applied to continuous spatial dynamical systems, like climate, successfully uncovering the system's interaction structure. However the relationship between the underlying atmospheric or oceanic flow's dynamics and the estimated network measures have remained largely unclear. We bridge this crucial gap in a bottom-up approach and define a continuous analytical analogue of Pearson correlation networks for advection-diffusion dynamics on a background flow. Analysing complex networks of prototypical flows and from time series data of the equatorial Pacific, we find that our analytical model reproduces the most salient features of these networks and thus provides a general foundation of climate networks. The relationships we obtain between velocity field and network measures show that line-like structures of high betweenness mark transition zones in the flow rather than, as previously thought, the propagation of dynamical information.