2019, Mitter, Hermine, Techen, Anja-K., Sinabell, Franz, Helming, Katharina, Kok, Kasper, Priess, Jörg A., Schmid, Erwin, Bodirsky, Benjamin L., Holman, Ian, Lehtonen, Heikki, Leip, Adrian, Le Mouël, Chantal, Mehdi, Bano, Michetti, Melania, Mittenzwei, Klaus, Mora, Olivier, Øygarden, Lillian, Reidsma, Pytrik, Schaldach, Rüdiger, Schönhart, Martin

Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs – to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd

2020, Le Mouël, Chantal, Mathijs, Erik, Mehdi, Bano, Mittenzwei, Klaus, Mora, Olivier, Øistad, Knut, Øygarden, Lillian, Priess, Jörg A., Reidsma, Pytrik, Schaldach, Rüdiger, Schönhart, Martin, Mitter, Hermine, Techen, Anja-K., Sinabell, Franz, Helming, Katharina, Schmid, Erwin, Bodirsky, Benjamin L., Holman, Ian, Kok, Kasper, Lehtonen, Heikki, Leip, Adrian

Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios – the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes. © 2020 The Author(s)

2021, Mouratiadou, Ioanna, Latka, Catharina, van der Hilst, Floor, Müller, Christoph, Berges, Regine, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Ewert, Frank, Faye, Babacar, Heckelei, Thomas, Hoffmann, Munir, Lehtonen, Heikki, Lorite, Ignacio Jesus, Nendel, Claas, Palosuo, Taru, Rodríguez, Alfredo, Rötter, Reimund Paul, Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita, Stella, Tommaso, Webber, Heidi, Wicke, Birka

Sustainable intensification (SI) of agriculture is a promising strategy for boosting the capacity of the agricultural sector to meet the growing demands for food and non-food products and services in a sustainable manner. Assessing and quantifying the options for SI remains a challenge due to its multiple dimensions and potential associated trade-offs. We contribute to overcoming this challenge by proposing an approach for the ex-ante evaluation of SI options and trade-offs to facilitate decision making in relation to SI. This approach is based on the utilization of a newly developed SI metrics framework (SIMeF) combined with agricultural systems modelling. We present SIMeF and its operationalization approach with modelling and evaluate the approach’s feasibility by assessing to what extent the SIMeF metrics can be quantified by representative agricultural systems models. SIMeF is based on the integration of academic and policy indicator frameworks, expert opinions, as well as the Sustainable Development Goals. Structured along seven SI domains and consisting of 37 themes, 142 sub-themes and 1128 metrics, it offers a holistic, generic, and policy-relevant dashboard for selecting the SI metrics to be quantified for the assessment of SI options in diverse contexts. The use of SIMeF with agricultural systems modelling allows the ex-ante assessment of SI options with respect to their productivity, resource use efficiency, environmental sustainability and, to a large extent, economic sustainability. However, we identify limitations to the use of modelling to represent several SI aspects related to social sustainability, certain ecological functions, the multi-functionality of agriculture, the management of losses and waste, and security and resilience. We suggest advancements in agricultural systems models and greater interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary integration to improve the ability to quantify SI metrics and to assess trade-offs across the various dimensions of SI.