Search Results
Estimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming
2012, Schneider von Deimling, T., Meinshausen, M., Levermann, A., Huber, V., Frieler, K., Lawrence, D.M., Brovkin, V.
Thawing of permafrost and the associated release of carbon constitutes a positive feedback in the climate system, elevating the effect of anthropogenic GHG emissions on global-mean temperatures. Multiple factors have hindered the quantification of this feedback, which was not included in climate carbon-cycle models which participated in recent model intercomparisons (such as the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project – C4MIP) . There are considerable uncertainties in the rate and extent of permafrost thaw, the hydrological and vegetation response to permafrost thaw, the decomposition timescales of freshly thawed organic material, the proportion of soil carbon that might be emitted as carbon dioxide via aerobic decomposition or as methane via anaerobic decomposition, and in the magnitude of the high latitude amplification of global warming that will drive permafrost degradation. Additionally, there are extensive and poorly characterized regional heterogeneities in soil properties, carbon content, and hydrology. Here, we couple a new permafrost module to a reduced complexity carbon-cycle climate model, which allows us to perform a large ensemble of simulations. The ensemble is designed to span the uncertainties listed above and thereby the results provide an estimate of the potential strength of the feedback from newly thawed permafrost carbon. For the high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), 33–114 GtC (giga tons of Carbon) are released by 2100 (68 % uncertainty range). This leads to an additional warming of 0.04–0.23 °C. Though projected 21st century permafrost carbon emissions are relatively modest, ongoing permafrost thaw and slow but steady soil carbon decomposition means that, by 2300, about half of the potentially vulnerable permafrost carbon stock in the upper 3 m of soil layer (600–1000 GtC) could be released as CO2, with an extra 1–4 % being released as methane. Our results also suggest that mitigation action in line with the lower scenario RCP3-PD could contain Arctic temperature increase sufficiently that thawing of the permafrost area is limited to 9–23 % and the permafrost-carbon induced temperature increase does not exceed 0.04–0.16 °C by 2300.
Scaling of instability timescales of Antarctic outlet glaciers based on one-dimensional similitude analysis
2019, Levermann, A., Feldmann, J.
Recent observations and ice-dynamic modeling suggest that a marine ice-sheet instability (MISI) might have been triggered in West Antarctica. The corresponding outlet glaciers, Pine Island Glacier (PIG) and Thwaites Glacier (TG), showed significant retreat during at least the last 2 decades. While other regions in Antarctica have the topographic predisposition for the same kind of instability, it is so far unclear how fast these instabilities would unfold if they were initiated. Here we employ the concept of similitude to estimate the characteristic timescales of several potentially MISI-prone outlet glaciers around the Antarctic coast. Our results suggest that TG and PIG have the fastest response time of all investigated outlets, with TG responding about 1.25 to 2 times as fast as PIG, while other outlets around Antarctica would be up to 10 times slower if destabilized. These results have to be viewed in light of the strong assumptions made in their derivation. These include the absence of ice-shelf buttressing, the one-dimensionality of the approach and the uncertainty of the available data. We argue however that the current topographic situation and the physical conditions of the MISI-prone outlet glaciers carry the information of their respective timescale and that this information can be partially extracted through a similitude analysis.
Adaptation required to preserve future high-end river flood risk at present levels
2018, Willner, S.N., Levermann, A., Zhao, F., Frieler, K.
Earth’s surface temperature will continue to rise for another 20 to 30 years even with the strongest carbon emission reduction currently considered. The associated changes in rainfall patterns can result in an increased flood risk worldwide. We compute the required increase in flood protection to keep high-end fluvial flood risk at present levels. The analysis is carried out worldwide for subnational administrative units. Most of the United States, Central Europe, and Northeast and West Africa, as well as large parts of India and Indonesia, require the strongest adaptation effort. More than half of the United States needs to at least double their protection within the next two decades. Thus, the need for adaptation to increased river flood is a global problem affecting industrialized regions as much as developing countries.
Kinematic first-order calving law implies potential for abrupt ice-shelf retreat
2012, Levermann, A., Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R., Martin, M.A., Haseloff, M., Joughin, I.
Recently observed large-scale disintegration of Antarctic ice shelves has moved their fronts closer towards grounded ice. In response, ice-sheet discharge into the ocean has accelerated, contributing to global sea-level rise and emphasizing the importance of calving-front dynamics. The position of the ice front strongly influences the stress field within the entire sheet-shelf-system and thereby the mass flow across the grounding line. While theories for an advance of the ice-front are readily available, no general rule exists for its retreat, making it difficult to incorporate the retreat in predictive models. Here we extract the first-order large-scale kinematic contribution to calving which is consistent with large-scale observation. We emphasize that the proposed equation does not constitute a comprehensive calving law but represents the first-order kinematic contribution which can and should be complemented by higher order contributions as well as the influence of potentially heterogeneous material properties of the ice. When applied as a calving law, the equation naturally incorporates the stabilizing effect of pinning points and inhibits ice shelf growth outside of embayments. It depends only on local ice properties which are, however, determined by the full topography of the ice shelf. In numerical simulations the parameterization reproduces multiple stable fronts as observed for the Larsen A and B Ice Shelves including abrupt transitions between them which may be caused by localized ice weaknesses. We also find multiple stable states of the Ross Ice Shelf at the gateway of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet with back stresses onto the sheet reduced by up to 90 % compared to the present state.
Enhanced Atlantic subpolar gyre variability through baroclinic threshold in a coarse resolution model
2012, Mengel, M., Levermann, A., Schleussner, C.-F., Born, A.
Direct observations, satellite measurements and paleo records reveal strong variability in the Atlantic subpolar gyre on various time scales. Here we show that variations of comparable amplitude can only be simulated in a coupled climate model in the proximity of a dynamical threshold. The threshold and the associated dynamic response is due to a positive feedback involving increased salt transport in the subpolar gyre and enhanced deep convection in its centre. A series of sensitivity experiments is performed with a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model coupled to a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model which in itself does not produce atmospheric variability. To simulate the impact of atmospheric variability, the model system is perturbed with freshwater forcing of varying, but small amplitude and multi-decadal to centennial periodicities and observational variations in wind stress. While both freshwater and wind-stress-forcing have a small direct effect on the strength of the subpolar gyre, the magnitude of the gyre's response is strongly increased in the vicinity of the threshold. Our results indicate that baroclinic self-amplification in the North Atlantic ocean can play an important role in presently observed SPG variability and thereby North Atlantic climate variability on multi-decadal scales.
Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change
2014, Lehmann, J., Coumou, D., Frieler, K., Eliseev, A.V., Levermann, A.
The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have analyzed how storm tracks will change under climate change, and how these changes are related to atmospheric dynamics. However, there are still discrepancies between different studies on how storm tracks will change under future climate scenarios. Here, we show that under global warming the CMIP5 ensemble of coupled climate models projects only little relative changes in vertically averaged mid-latitude mean storm track activity during the northern winter, but agree in projecting a substantial decrease during summer. Seasonal changes in the Southern Hemisphere show the opposite behaviour, with an intensification in winter and no change during summer. These distinct seasonal changes in northern summer and southern winter storm tracks lead to an amplified seasonal cycle in a future climate. Similar changes are seen in the mid-latitude mean Eady growth rate maximum, a measure that combines changes in vertical shear and static stability based on baroclinic instability theory. Regression analysis between changes in the storm tracks and changes in the maximum Eady growth rate reveal that most models agree in a positive association between the two quantities over mid-latitude regions.
Parameterization for subgrid-scale motion of ice-shelf calving fronts
2011, Albrecht, T., Martin, M., Haseloff, M., Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A.
In order to explore the response of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) to climate change on long (centennial to multi-millennial) time scales, a regional energy-moisture balance model has been developed. This model simulates seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation over Greenland and explicitly accounts for elevation and albedo feedbacks. From these fields, the annual mean surface temperature and surface mass balance can be determined and used to force an ice sheet model. The melt component of the surface mass balance is computed here using both a positive degree day approach and a more physically-based alternative that includes insolation and albedo explicitly. As a validation of the climate model, we first simulated temperature and precipitation over Greenland for the prescribed, present-day topography. Our simulated climatology compares well to observations and does not differ significantly from that of a simple parameterization used in many previous simulations. Furthermore, the calculated surface mass balance using both melt schemes falls within the range of recent regional climate model results. For a prescribed, ice-free state, the differences in simulated climatology between the regional energy-moisture balance model and the simple parameterization become significant, with our model showing much stronger summer warming. When coupled to a three-dimensional ice sheet model and initialized with present-day conditions, the two melt schemes both allow realistic simulations of the present-day GIS.
A simple stress-based cliff-calving law
2019, Schlemm, T., Levermann, A.
Over large coastal regions in Greenland and Antarctica the ice sheet calves directly into the ocean. In contrast to ice-shelf calving, an increase in calving from grounded glaciers contributes directly to sea-level rise. Ice cliffs with a glacier freeboard larger than ≈100 m are currently not observed, but it has been shown that such ice cliffs are increasingly unstable with increasing ice thickness. This cliff calving can constitute a self-amplifying ice loss mechanism that may significantly alter sea-level projections both of Greenland and Antarctica. Here we seek to derive a minimalist stress-based parametrization for cliff calving from grounded glaciers whose freeboards exceed the 100 m stability limit derived in previous studies. This will be an extension of existing calving laws for tidewater glaciers to higher ice cliffs. To this end we compute the stress field for a glacier with a simplified two-dimensional geometry from the two-dimensional Stokes equation. First we assume a constant yield stress to derive the failure region at the glacier front from the stress field within the glacier. Secondly, we assume a constant response time of ice failure due to exceedance of the yield stress. With this strongly constraining but very simple set of assumptions we propose a cliff-calving law where the calving rate follows a power-law dependence on the freeboard of the ice with exponents between 2 and 3, depending on the relative water depth at the calving front. The critical freeboard below which the ice front is stable decreases with increasing relative water depth of the calving front. For a dry water front it is, for example, 75 m. The purpose of this study is not to provide a comprehensive calving law but to derive a particularly simple equation with a transparent and minimalist set of assumptions.
A critical humidity threshold for monsoon transitions
2012, Schewe, J., Levermann, A., Cheng, H.
Monsoon systems around the world are governed by the so-called moisture-advection feedback. Here we show that, in a minimal conceptual model, this feedback implies a critical threshold with respect to the atmospheric specific humidity qo over the ocean adjacent to the monsoon region. If qo falls short of this critical value qoc, monsoon rainfall over land cannot be sustained. Such a case could occur if evaporation from the ocean was reduced, e.g. due to low sea surface temperatures. Within the restrictions of the conceptual model, we estimate qoc from present-day reanalysis data for four major monsoon systems, and demonstrate how this concept can help understand abrupt variations in monsoon strength on orbital timescales as found in proxy records.
The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 1: Model description
2011, Winkelmann, R., Martin, M.A., Haseloff, M., Albrecht, T., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C., Levermann, A.
We present the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research to be used for simulations of large-scale ice sheet-shelf systems. It is derived from the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (Bueler and Brown, 2009). Velocities are calculated by superposition of two shallow stress balance approximations within the entire ice covered region: the shallow ice approximation (SIA) is dominant in grounded regions and accounts for shear deformation parallel to the geoid. The plug-flow type shallow shelf approximation (SSA) dominates the velocity field in ice shelf regions and serves as a basal sliding velocity in grounded regions. Ice streams can be identified diagnostically as regions with a significant contribution of membrane stresses to the local momentum balance. All lateral boundaries in PISM-PIK are free to evolve, including the grounding line and ice fronts. Ice shelf margins in particular are modeled using Neumann boundary conditions for the SSA equations, reflecting a hydrostatic stress imbalance along the vertical calving face. The ice front position is modeled using a subgrid-scale representation of calving front motion (Albrecht et al., 2011) and a physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates. The model is tested in experiments from the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP). A dynamic equilibrium simulation of Antarctica under present-day conditions is presented in Martin et al. (2011).