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- ItemIntercomparison and evaluation of global aerosol microphysical properties among AeroCom models of a range of complexity(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Mann, G.W.; Carslaw, K.S.; Reddington, C.L.; Pringle, K.J.; Schulz, M.; Asmi, A.; Spracklen, D.V.; Ridley, D.A.; Woodhouse, M.T.; Lee, L.A.; Zhang, K.; Ghan, S.J.; Easter, R.C.; Liu, X.; Stier, P.; Lee, Y.H.; Adams, P.J.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.; Bauer, S.E.; Tsigaridis, K.; van Noije, T.P.C.; Strunk, A.; Vignati, E.; Bellouin, N.; Dalvi, M.; Johnson, C.E.; Bergman, T.; Kokkola, H.; von Salzen, K.; Yu, F.; Luo, G.; Petzold, A.; Heintzenberg, J.; Clarke, A.; Ogren, J.A.; Gras, J.; Baltensperger, U.; Kaminski, U.; Jennings, S.G.; O'Dowd, C.D.; Harrison, R.M.; Beddows, D.C.S.; Kulmala, M.; Viisanen, Y.; Ulevicius, V.; Mihalopoulos, N.; Zdimal, V.; Fiebig, M.; Hansson, H.-C.; Swietlicki, E.; Henzing, J.S.Many of the next generation of global climate models will include aerosol schemes which explicitly simulate the microphysical processes that determine the particle size distribution. These models enable aerosol optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations to be determined by fundamental aerosol processes, which should lead to a more physically based simulation of aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. This study examines the global variation in particle size distribution simulated by 12 global aerosol microphysics models to quantify model diversity and to identify any common biases against observations. Evaluation against size distribution measurements from a new European network of aerosol supersites shows that the mean model agrees quite well with the observations at many sites on the annual mean, but there are some seasonal biases common to many sites. In particular, at many of these European sites, the accumulation mode number concentration is biased low during winter and Aitken mode concentrations tend to be overestimated in winter and underestimated in summer. At high northern latitudes, the models strongly underpredict Aitken and accumulation particle concentrations compared to the measurements, consistent with previous studies that have highlighted the poor performance of global aerosol models in the Arctic. In the marine boundary layer, the models capture the observed meridional variation in the size distribution, which is dominated by the Aitken mode at high latitudes, with an increasing concentration of accumulation particles with decreasing latitude. Considering vertical profiles, the models reproduce the observed peak in total particle concentrations in the upper troposphere due to new particle formation, although modelled peak concentrations tend to be biased high over Europe. Overall, the multi-model-mean data set simulates the global variation of the particle size distribution with a good degree of skill, suggesting that most of the individual global aerosol microphysics models are performing well, although the large model diversity indicates that some models are in poor agreement with the observations. Further work is required to better constrain size-resolved primary and secondary particle number sources, and an improved understanding of nucleation and growth (e.g. the role of nitrate and secondary organics) will improve the fidelity of simulated particle size distributions.
- ItemComparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2013) Davie, J.C.S.; Falloon, P.D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F.T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D.B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S.N.; Franssen, W.; Arnell, N.Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981–2010) to the future (2070–2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.
- ItemRelationships between submicrometer particulate air pollution and air mass history in Beijing, China, 2004–2006(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2008) Wehner, B.; Birmili, W.; Ditas, F.; Wu, Z.; Hu, M.; Liu, X.; Mao, J.; Sugimoto, N.; Wiedensohler, A.The Chinese capital Beijing is one of the global megacities where the effects of rapid economic growth have led to complex air pollution problems that are not well understood. In this study, ambient particle number size distributions in Beijing between 2004 and 2006 are analysed as a function of regional meteorological transport. An essential result is that the particle size distribution in Beijing depends to large extent on the history of the synoptic scale air masses. A first approach based on manual back trajectory classification yielded differences in particulate matter mass concentration by a factor of two between four different air mass categories, including three main wind directions plus the case of stagnant air masses. A back trajectory cluster analysis refined these results, yielding a total of six trajectory clusters. Besides the large scale wind direction, the transportation speed of an air mass was found to play an essential role on the PM concentrations in Beijing. Slow-moving air masses were shown to be associated with an effective accumulation of surface-based anthropogenic emissions due to both, an increased residence time over densely populated land, and their higher degree of vertical stability. For the six back trajectory clusters, differences in PM1 mass concentrations by a factor of 3.5, in the mean air mass speed by a factor of 6, and in atmospheric visibility by a factor of 4 were found. The main conclusion is that the air quality in Beijing is not only degraded by anthropogenic aerosol sources from within the megacity, but also by sources across the entire Northwest China plain depending on the meteorological situation.