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- ItemClimate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Allen, Robert J.; Turnock, Steven; Nabat, Pierre; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike; Olivié, Dirk; Oshima, Naga; Michou, Martine; Wu, Tongwen; Zhang, Jie; Takemura, Toshihiko; Schulz, Michael; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Bauer, Susanne E.; Emmons, Louisa; Horowitz, Larry; Naik, Vaishali; van Noije, Twan; Bergman, Tommi; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Zanis, Prodromos; Tegen, Ina; Westervelt, Daniel M.; Le Sager, Philippe; Good, Peter; Shim, Sungbo; O’Connor, Fiona; Akritidis, Dimitris; Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Deushi, Makoto; Sentman, Lori T.; John, Jasmin G.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Collins, William J.It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015-2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with weak (SSP3-7.0) versus strong (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2:5) and ozone (O3) decrease by 2:20:32 ugm3 and 4:60:88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015-2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95% confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0:250:12K and 0:030:012mmd1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0:660:20K and 0:030:02mmd1), south Asia (0:470:16K and 0:170:09mmd1), and east Asia (0:460:20K and 0:150:06mmd1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0:590:36K and 0:040:02mmd1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals. © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
- ItemGlobal relevance of marine organic aerosol as ice nucleating particles(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2018) Huang, Wan Ting Katty; Ickes, Luisa; Tegen, Ina; Rinaldi, Matteo; Ceburnis, Darius; Lohmann, UlrikeIce nucleating particles (INPs) increase the temperature at which supercooled droplets start to freeze. They are therefore of particular interest in mixed-phase cloud temperature regimes, where supercooled liquid droplets can persist for extended periods of time in the absence of INPs. When INPs are introduced to such an environment, the cloud can quickly glaciate following ice multiplication processes and the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process. The WBF process can also cause the ice to grow to precipitation size and precipitate out. All of these processes alter the radiative properties. Despite their potential influence on climate, the ice nucleation ability and importance of different aerosol species is still not well understood and is a field of active research. In this study, we use the aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 to examine the global relevance of marine organic aerosol (MOA), which has drawn much interest in recent years as a potentially important INPs in remote marine regions. We address the uncertainties in emissions and ice nucleation activity of MOA with a range of reasonable set-ups and find a wide range of resulting MOA burdens. The relative importance of MOA as an INP compared to dust is investigated and found to depend strongly on the type of ice nucleation parameterisation scheme chosen. On the zonal mean, freezing due to MOA leads to relative increases in the cloud ice occurrence and in-cloud number concentration close to the surface in the polar regions during summer. Slight but consistent decreases in the in-cloud ice crystal effective radius can also be observed over the same regions during all seasons. Regardless, MOA was not found to affect the radiative balance significantly on the global scale, due to its relatively weak ice activity and a low sensitivity of cloud ice properties to heterogeneous ice nucleation in our model.
- ItemClassical nucleation theory of immersion freezing: sensitivity of contact angle schemes to thermodynamic and kinetic parameters(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2017) Ickes, Luisa; Welti, André; Lohmann, UlrikeHeterogeneous ice formation by immersion freezing in mixed-phase clouds can be parameterized in general circulation models (GCMs) by classical nucleation theory (CNT). CNT parameterization schemes describe immersion freezing as a stochastic process, including the properties of insoluble aerosol particles in the droplets. There are different ways to parameterize the properties of aerosol particles (i.e., contact angle schemes), which are compiled and tested in this paper. The goal of this study is to find a parameterization scheme for GCMs to describe immersion freezing with the ability to shift and adjust the slope of the freezing curve compared to homogeneous freezing to match experimental data. We showed in a previous publication that the resulting freezing curves from CNT are very sensitive to unconstrained kinetic and thermodynamic parameters in the case of homogeneous freezing. Here we investigate how sensitive the outcome of a parameter estimation for contact angle schemes from experimental data is to unconstrained kinetic and thermodynamic parameters. We demonstrate that the parameters describing the contact angle schemes can mask the uncertainty in thermodynamic and kinetic parameters. Different CNT formulations are fitted to an extensive immersion freezing dataset consisting of size-selected measurements as a function of temperature and time for different mineral dust types, namely kaolinite, illite, montmorillonite, microcline (K-feldspar), and Arizona test dust. We investigated how accurate different CNT formulations (with estimated fit parameters for different contact angle schemes) reproduce the measured freezing data, especially the time and particle size dependence of the freezing process. The results are compared to a simplified deterministic freezing scheme. In this context, we evaluated which CNT-based parameterization scheme able to represent particle properties is the best choice to describe immersion freezing in a GCM.
- ItemHeterogeneous ice nucleation on dust particles sourced from nine deserts worldwide - Part 1: Immersion freezing(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2016) Boose, Yvonne; Welti, André; Atkinson, James; Ramelli, Fabiola; Danielczok, Anja; Bingemer, Heinz G.; Plötze, Michael; Sierau, Berko; Kanji, Zamin A.; Lohmann, UlrikeDesert dust is one of the most abundant ice nucleating particle types in the atmosphere. Traditionally, clay minerals were assumed to determine the ice nucleation ability of desert dust and constituted the focus of ice nucleation studies over several decades. Recently some feldspar species were identified to be ice active at much higher temperatures than clay minerals, redirecting studies to investigate the contribution of feldspar to ice nucleation on desert dust. However, so far no study has shown the atmospheric relevance of this mineral phase. For this study four dust samples were collected after airborne transport in the troposphere from the Sahara to different locations (Crete, the Peloponnese, Canary Islands, and the Sinai Peninsula). Additionally, 11 dust samples were collected from the surface from nine of the biggest deserts worldwide. The samples were used to study the ice nucleation behavior specific to different desert dusts. Furthermore, we investigated how representative surface-collected dust is for the atmosphere by comparing to the ice nucleation activity of the airborne samples. We used the IMCA-ZINC setup to form droplets on single aerosol particles which were subsequently exposed to temperatures between 233 and 250 K. Dust particles were collected in parallel on filters for offline cold-stage ice nucleation experiments at 253–263 K. To help the interpretation of the ice nucleation experiments the mineralogical composition of the dusts was investigated. We find that a higher ice nucleation activity in a given sample at 253 K can be attributed to the K-feldspar content present in this sample, whereas at temperatures between 238 and 245 K it is attributed to the sum of feldspar and quartz content present. A high clay content, in contrast, is associated with lower ice nucleation activity. This confirms the importance of feldspar above 250 K and the role of quartz and feldspars determining the ice nucleation activities at lower temperatures as found by earlier studies for monomineral dusts. The airborne samples show on average a lower ice nucleation activity than the surface-collected ones. Furthermore, we find that under certain conditions milling can lead to a decrease in the ice nucleation ability of polymineral samples due to the different hardness and cleavage of individual mineral phases causing an increase of minerals with low ice nucleation ability in the atmospherically relevant size fraction. Comparison of our data set to an existing desert dust parameterization confirms its applicability for climate models. Our results suggest that for an improved prediction of the ice nucleation ability of desert dust in the atmosphere, the modeling of emission and atmospheric transport of the feldspar and quartz mineral phases would be key, while other minerals are only of minor importance.