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Author: Müller, Christoph × Start date: 2010 × Type: Text × Version: publishedVersion × Publisher: [London] : Nature Publishing Group UK × WGL Institute: PIK ×

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Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
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    State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
    ([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2019) Schewe, Jacob; Gosling, Simon N.; Reyer, Christopher; Zhao, Fang; Ciais, Philippe; Elliott, Joshua; Francois, Louis; Huber, Veronika; Lotze, Heike K.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Vautard, Robert; Wada, Yoshihide; Breuer, Lutz; Büchner, Matthias; Carozza, David A.; Chang, Jinfeng; Coll, Marta; Deryng, Delphine; de Wit, Allard; Eddy, Tyler D.; Folberth, Christian; Frieler, Katja; Friend, Andrew D.; Gerten, Dieter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Hanasaki, Naota; Ito, Akihiko; Khabarov, Nikolay; Kim, Hyungjun; Lawrence, Peter; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Müller, Christoph; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Orth, René; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pokhrel, Yadu; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Sakurai, Gen; Satoh, Yusuke; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Steinkamp, Jörg; Tang, Qiuhong; Tian, Hanqin; Tittensor, Derek P.; Volkholz, Jan; Wang, Xuhui; Warszawski, Lila
    Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
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    Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change
    ([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2022) Minoli, Sara; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Asseng, Senthold; Urfels, Anton; Müller, Christoph
    Adaptive management of crop growing periods by adjusting sowing dates and cultivars is one of the central aspects of crop production systems, tightly connected to local climate. However, it is so far underrepresented in crop-model based assessments of yields under climate change. In this study, we integrate models of farmers’ decision making with biophysical crop modeling at the global scale to simulate crop calendars adaptation and its effect on crop yields of maize, rice, sorghum, soybean and wheat. We simulate crop growing periods and yields (1986-2099) under counterfactual management scenarios assuming no adaptation, timely adaptation or delayed adaptation of sowing dates and cultivars. We then compare the counterfactual growing periods and corresponding yields at the end of the century (2080-2099). We find that (i) with adaptation, temperature-driven sowing dates (typical at latitudes >30°N-S) will have larger shifts than precipitation-driven sowing dates (at latitudes <30°N-S); (ii) later-maturing cultivars will be needed, particularly at higher latitudes; (iii) timely adaptation of growing periods would increase actual crop yields by ~12%, reducing climate change negative impacts and enhancing the positive CO2 fertilization effect. Despite remaining uncertainties, crop growing periods adaptation require consideration in climate change impact assessments.
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    Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe
    ([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2018) Webber, Heidi; Ewert, Frank; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Müller, Christoph; Fronzek, Stefan; Ruane, Alex C.; Bourgault, Maryse; Martre, Pierre; Ababaei, Behnam; Bindi, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Finger, Robert; Fodor, Nándor; Gabaldón-Leal, Clara; Gaiser, Thomas; Jabloun, Mohamed; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Lizaso, Jon I.; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Manceau, Loic; Moriondo, Marco; Nendel, Claas; Rodríguez, Alfredo; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Siebert, Stefan; Stella, Tommaso; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Trombi, Giacomo; Wallach, Daniel
    Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984–2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years.
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    Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield
    ([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2021) Wang, Xuhui; Müller, Christoph; Elliot, Joshua; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Ciais, Philippe; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Gerber, James; Dumas, Patrice; Wang, Chenzhi; Yang, Hui; Li, Laurent; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Liu, Wenfeng; Makowski, David; Olin, Stefan; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reddy, Ashwan; Schmid, Erwin; Jeong, Sujong; Zhou, Feng; Piao, Shilong
    Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yield (ΔY). At global scale, ΔY is 34 ± 9% for wheat and 22 ± 13% for maize, with large spatial differences driven more by patterns of precipitation than that of evaporative demand. Comparing irrigation demands with renewable water supply, we find 30–47% of contemporary rainfed agriculture of wheat and maize cannot achieve yield gap closure utilizing current river discharge, unless more water diversion projects are set in place, putting into question the potential of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts.