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- ItemUncertainty in the measurement of indoor temperature and humidity in naturally ventilated dairy buildings as influenced by measurement technique and data variability(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2017) Hempel, Sabrina; König, Marcel; Menz, Christoph; Janke, David; Amon, Barbara; Banhazi, Thomas M.; Estellés, Fernando; Amon, ThomasThe microclimatic conditions in dairy buildings affect animal welfare and gaseous emissions. Measurements are highly variable due to the inhomogeneous distribution of heat and humidity sources (related to farm management) and the turbulent inflow (associated with meteorologic boundary conditions). The selection of the measurement strategy (number and position of the sensors) and the analysis methodology adds to the uncertainty of the applied measurement technique. To assess the suitability of different sensor positions, in situations where monitoring in the direct vicinity of the animals is not possible, we collected long-term data in two naturally ventilated dairy barns in Germany between March 2015 and April 2016 (horizontal and vertical profiles with 10 to 5 min temporal resolution). Uncertainties related to the measurement setup were assessed by comparing the device outputs under lab conditions after the on-farm experiments. We found out that the uncertainty in measurements of relative humidity is of particular importance when assessing heat stress risk and resulting economic losses in terms of temperature-humidity index. Measurements at a height of approximately 3 m–3.5 m turned out to be a good approximation for the microclimatic conditions in the animal occupied zone (including the air volume close to the emission active zone). However, further investigation along this cross-section is required to reduce uncertainties related to the inhomogeneous distribution of humidity. In addition, a regular sound cleaning (and if possible recalibration after few months) of the measurement devices is crucial to reduce the instrumentation uncertainty in long-term monitoring of relative humidity in dairy barns. © 2017 The Authors
- ItemSimultaneous Calibration of Grapevine Phenology and Yield with a Soil–Plant–Atmosphere System Model Using the Frequentist Method(Basel : MDPI, 2021-8-20) Yang, Chenyao; Menz, Christoph; Fraga, Helder; Reis, Samuel; Machado, Nelson; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Santos, João A.Reliable estimations of parameter values and associated uncertainties are crucial for crop model applications in agro-environmental research. However, estimating many parameters simultaneously for different types of response variables is difficult. This becomes more complicated for grapevines with different phenotypes between varieties and training systems. Our study aims to evaluate how a standard least square approach can be used to calibrate a complex grapevine model for simulating both the phenology (flowering and harvest date) and yield of four different variety–training systems in the Douro Demarcated Region, northern Portugal. An objective function is defined to search for the best-fit parameters that result in the minimum value of the unweighted sum of the normalized Root Mean Squared Error (nRMSE) of the studied variables. Parameter uncertainties are estimated as how a given parameter value can determine the total prediction variability caused by variations in the other parameter combinations. The results indicate that the best-estimated parameters show a satisfactory predictive performance, with a mean bias of −2 to 4 days for phenology and −232 to 159 kg/ha for yield. The corresponding variance in the observed data was generally well reproduced, except for one occasion. These parameters are a good trade-off to achieve results close to the best possible fit of each response variable. No parameter combinations can achieve minimum errors simultaneously for phenology and yield, where the best fit to one variable can lead to a poor fit to another. The proposed parameter uncertainty analysis is particularly useful to select the best-fit parameter values when several choices with equal performance occur. A global sensitivity analysis is applied where the fruit-setting parameters are identified as key determinants for yield simulations. Overall, the approach (including uncertainty analysis) is relatively simple and straightforward without specific pre-conditions (e.g., model continuity), which can be easily applied for other models and crops. However, a challenge has been identified, which is associated with the appropriate assumption of the model errors, where a combination of various calibration approaches might be essential to have a more robust parameter estimation.
- ItemPerformance of seasonal forecasts for the flowering and veraison of two major Portuguese grapevine varieties(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2023) Yang, Chenyao; Ceglar, Andrej; Menz, Christoph; Martins, Joana; Fraga, Helder; Santos, João A.Seasonal phenology forecasts are becoming increasingly demanded by winegrowers and viticulturists. Forecast performance needs to be investigated over space and time before practical applications. We assess seasonal forecast performance (skill, probability and accuracy) in predicting flowering and veraison stages of two representative varieties in Portugal over 1993–2017. The state-of-the-art forecast system ECMWF-SEAS5 provides 7-month seasonal forecasts and is coupled with a locally adapted phenology model. Overall, findings illustrate the dependence of forecast performance on initialization timings, regions and predicting subjects (stages and varieties). Forecast performance improves by delaying the initialization timing and only forecasts initialized on April 1st show better skills than climatology on predicting phenology terciles (early/normal/late). The considerable bias of daily values of seasonal climate predictions can represent the main barrier to accurate forecasts. Better prediction performance is consistently found in Central-Southern regions compared to Northern regions, attributing to an earlier phenology occurrence with a shorter forecast length. Comparable predictive skills between flowering and veraison for both varieties imply better predictability in summer. Consequently, promising seasonal phenology predictions are foreseen in Central-Southern wine regions using forecasts initialized on April 1st with approximately 1–2/3–4 months lead time for flowering/veraison: potential prediction errors are ∼2 weeks, along with an overall moderate forecast skill on categorical events. However, considerable inter-annual variability of forecast performance over the same classified phenology years reflects the substantial influence of climate variability. This may represent the main challenge for reliable forecasts in Mediterranean regions. Recommendations are suggested for methodological innovations and practical applications towards reliable regional phenology forecasts.
- ItemHeat stress risk in European dairy cattle husbandry under different climate change scenarios – uncertainties and potential impacts(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2019) Hempel, Sabrina; Menz, Christoph; Pinto, Severino; Galán, Elena; Janke, David; Estellés, Fernando; Müschner-Siemens, Theresa; Wang, Xiaoshuai; Heinicke, Julia; Zhang, Guoqiang; Amon, Barbara; del Prado, Agustín; Amon, ThomasIn the last decades, a global warming trend was observed. Along with the temperature increase, modifications in the humidity and wind regime amplify the regional and local impacts on livestock husbandry. Direct impacts include the occurrence of climatic stress conditions. In Europe, cows are economically highly relevant and are mainly kept in naturally ventilated buildings that are most susceptible to climate change. The high-yielding cows are particularly vulnerable to heat stress. Modifications in housing management are the main measures taken to improve the ability of livestock to cope with these conditions. Measures are typically taken in direct reaction to uncomfortable conditions instead of in anticipation of a long-term risk for climatic stress. Measures that balance welfare, environmental and economic issues are barely investigated in the context of climate change and are thus almost not available for commercial farms. Quantitative analysis of the climate change impacts on animal welfare and linked economic and environmental factors is rare. Therefore, we used a numerical modeling approach to estimate the future heat stress risk in such dairy cattle husbandry systems. The indoor climate was monitored inside three reference barns in central Europe and the Mediterranean regions. An artificial neuronal network (ANN) was trained to relate the outdoor weather conditions provided by official meteorological weather stations to the measured indoor microclimate. Subsequently, this ANN model was driven by an ensemble of regional climate model projections with three different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. For the evaluation of the heat stress risk, we considered the number and duration of heat stress events. Based on the changes in the heat stress events, various economic and environmental impacts were estimated. The impacts of the projected increase in heat stress risk varied among the barns due to different locations and designs as well as the anticipated climate change (considering different climate models and future greenhouse gas concentrations). There was an overall increasing trend in number and duration of heat stress events. At the end of the century, the number of annual stress events can be expected to increase by up to 2000, while the average duration of the events increases by up to 22 h compared to the end of the last century. This implies strong impacts on economics, environment and animal welfare and an urgent need for mid-term adaptation strategies. We anticipated that up to one-tenth of all hours of a year, correspondingly one-third of all days, will be classified as critical heat stress conditions. Due to heat stress, milk yield may decrease by about 2.8 % relative to the present European milk yield, and farmers may expect financial losses in the summer season of about 5.4 % of their monthly income. In addition, an increasing demand for emission reduction measures must be expected, as an emission increase of about 16 Gg of ammonia and 0.1 Gg of methane per year can be expected under the anticipated heat stress conditions. The cattle respiration rate increases by up to 60 %, and the standing time may be prolonged by 1 h. This causes health issues and increases the probability of medical treatments. The various impacts imply feedback loops in the climate system which are presently underexplored. Hence, future in-depth studies on the different impacts and adaptation options at different stress levels are highly recommended.
- ItemPhenological model intercomparison for estimating grapevine budbreak date (Vitis vinifera L.) in Europe(Basel : MDPI, 2020) Leolini, Luisa; Costafreda-Aumedes, Sergi; Santos, João A.; Menz, Christoph; Fraga, Helder; Molitor, Daniel; Merante, Paolo; Junk, Jürgen; Kartschall, Thomas; Destrac-Irvine, Agnès; van Leeuwen, Cornelis; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Eiras-Dias, José; Silvestre, José; Dibari, Camilla; Bindi, Marco; Moriondo, MarcoBudbreak date in grapevine is strictly dependent on temperature, and the correct simulation of its occurrence is of great interest since it may have major consequences on the final yield and quality. In this study, we evaluated the reliability for budbreak simulation of two modeling approaches, the chilling-forcing (CF), which describes the entire dormancy period (endo-and eco-dormancy) and the forcing approach (F), which only describes the eco-dormancy. For this, we selected six phenological models that apply CF and F in dierent ways, which were tested on budbreak simulation of eight grapevine varieties cultivated at dierent latitudes in Europe. Although none of the compared models showed a clear supremacy over the others, models based on CF showed a generally higher estimation accuracy than F where fixed starting dates were adopted. In the latter models, the accurate simulation of budbreak was dependent on the selection of the starting date for forcing accumulation that changes according to the latitude, whereas CF models were independent. Indeed, distinct thermal requirements were found for the grapevine varieties cultivated in Northern and Southern Europe. This implies the need to improve modeling of the dormancy period to avoid under-or over-estimations of budbreak date under dierent environmental conditions. © 2020 by the authors.
- ItemA review of the potential climate change impacts and adaptation options for European viticulture(Basel : MDPI, 2020) Santos, João A.; Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Dinis, Lia-Tânia; Correia, Carlos; Moriondo, Marco; Leolini, Luisa; Dibari, Camilla; Costafreda-Aumedes, Sergi; Kartschall, Thomas; Menz, Christoph; Molitor, Daniel; Junk, Jürgen; Beyer, Marco; Schultz, Hans R.Viticulture and winemaking are important socioeconomic sectors in many European regions. Climate plays a vital role in the terroir of a given wine region, as it strongly controls canopy microclimate, vine growth, vine physiology, yield, and berry composition, which together determine wine attributes and typicity. New challenges are, however, predicted to arise from climate change, as grapevine cultivation is deeply dependent on weather and climate conditions. Changes in viticultural suitability over the last decades, for viticulture in general or the use of specific varieties, have already been reported for many wine regions. Despite spatially heterogeneous impacts, climate change is anticipated to exacerbate these recent trends on suitability for wine production. These shifts may reshape the geographical distribution of wine regions, while wine typicity may also be threatened in most cases. Changing climates will thereby urge for the implementation of timely, suitable, and cost-effective adaptation strategies, which should also be thoroughly planned and tuned to local conditions for an effective risk reduction. Although the potential of the different adaptation options is not yet fully investigated, deserving further research activities, their adoption will be of utmost relevance to maintain the socioeconomic and environmental sustainability of the highly valued viticulture and winemaking sector in Europe. © 2020 by the authors.
- ItemCorrigendum: Projections for headwater catchments of the Tarim River reveal glacier retreat and decreasing surface water availability but uncertainties are large (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 054024)(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2019) Duethmann, Doris; Menz, Christoph; Jiang, Tong; Vorogushyn, SergiyThis is a correction for 2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 054024
- ItemClimate impact emergence and flood peak synchronization projections in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna basins under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2022) Gädeke, Anne; Wortmann, Michel; Menz, Christoph; Islam, AKM Saiful; Masood, Muhammad; Krysanova, Valentina; Lange, Stefan; Hattermann, Fred FokkoThe densely populated delta of the three river systems of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna is highly prone to floods. Potential climate change-related increases in flood intensity are therefore of major societal concern as more than 40 million people live in flood-prone areas in downstream Bangladesh. Here we report on new flood projections using a hydrological model forced by bias-adjusted ensembles of the latest-generation global climate models of CMIP6 (SSP5-8.5/SSP1-2.6) in comparison to CMIP5 (RCP8.5/RCP2.6). Results suggest increases in peak flow magnitude of 36% (16%) on average under SSP5-8.5 (SSP1-2.6), compared to 60% (17%) under RCP8.5 (RCP2.6) by 2070-2099 relative to 1971-2000. Under RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 (2070-2099), the largest increase in flood risk is projected for the Ganges watershed, where higher flood peaks become the ‘new norm’ as early as mid-2030 implying a relatively short time window for adaptation. In the Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers, the climate impact signal on peak flow emerges after 2070 (CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections). Flood peak synchronization, when annual peak flow occurs simultaneously at (at least) two rivers leading to large flooding events within Bangladesh, show a consistent increase under both projections. While the variability across the ensemble remains high, the increases in flood magnitude are robust in the study basins. Our findings emphasize the need of stringent climate mitigation policies to reduce the climate change impact on peak flows (as presented using SSP1-2.6/RCP2.6) and to subsequently minimize adverse socioeconomic impacts and adaptation costs. Considering Bangladesh’s high overall vulnerability to climate change and its downstream location, synergies between climate change adaptation and mitigation and transboundary cooperation will need to be strengthened to improve overall climate resilience and achieve sustainable development.
- ItemProjections for headwater catchments of the Tarim River reveal glacier retreat and decreasing surface water availability but uncertainties are large(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2016) Duethmann, Doris; Menz, Christoph; Jiang, Tong; Vorogushyn, SergiyIn the Tarim River Basin, water resources from the mountain areas play a key role due to the extremely arid climate of the lowlands. This study presents an analysis of future climate change impacts on glaciers and surface water availability for headwater catchments of the Aksu River, the most important tributary to the Tarim River. We applied a glacio-hydrological model that underwent a comprehensive multivariable and multiobjective model calibration and evaluation, based on daily and interannual discharge variations and glacier mass changes. Transient glacier geometry changes are simulated using the Δh-approach. For the ensemble-based projections, we considered three different emission scenarios, nine global climate models (GCMs) and two regional climate models, and different hydrological model parameters derived from the multiobjective calibration. The results show a decline in glacier area of −90% to −32% until 2099 (reference ~2008) (based on the 5–95 percentile range of the ensemble). Glacier melt is anticipated to further increase or stay at a high level during the first decades of the 21st century, but then declines because of decreased glacier extents. Overall discharge in the Aksu headwaters is expected to be increased in the period 2010–2039 (reference 1971–2000), but decreased in 2070–2099. Seasonally, projections show an increase in discharge in spring and early summer throughout the 21st century. Discharge changes in mid to late summer are more variable, with increases or decreases depending on the considered period and GCM. Uncertainties are largely caused by differences between the different GCMs, with further important contributions from different emission scenarios in the second half of the 21st century. Contributions from the hydrological model parameters to the ensemble uncertainty were generally found to be small.
- ItemCross-sectoral impacts of the 2018–2019 Central European drought and climate resilience in the German part of the Elbe River basin(Heidelberg : Springer, 2023) Conradt, Tobias; Engelhardt, Henry; Menz, Christoph; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Farizo, Begoña Alvarez; Peña-Angulo, Dhais; Domínguez-Castro, Fernando; Eklundh, Lars; Jin, Hongxiao; Boincean, Boris; Murphy, Conor; López-Moreno, J. IgnacioThe 2018–2019 Central European drought was probably the most extreme in Germany since the early sixteenth century. We assess the multiple consequences of the drought for natural systems, the economy and human health in the German part of the Elbe River basin, an area of 97,175 km2 including the cities of Berlin and Hamburg and contributing about 18% to the German GDP. We employ meteorological, hydrological and socio-economic data to build a comprehensive picture of the drought severity, its multiple effects and cross-sectoral consequences in the basin. Time series of different drought indices illustrate the severity of the 2018–2019 drought and how it progressed from meteorological water deficits via soil water depletion towards low groundwater levels and river runoff, and losses in vegetation productivity. The event resulted in severe production losses in agriculture (minus 20–40% for staple crops) and forestry (especially through forced logging of damaged wood: 25.1 million tons in 2018–2020 compared to only 3.4 million tons in 2015–2017), while other economic sectors remained largely unaffected. However, there is no guarantee that this socio-economic stability will be sustained in future drought events; this is discussed in the light of 2022, another dry year holding the potential for a compound crisis. Given the increased probability for more intense and long-lasting droughts in most parts of Europe, this example of actual cross-sectoral drought impacts will be relevant for drought awareness and preparation planning in other regions.