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- ItemSemi-supervised identification of rarely appearing persons in video by correcting weak labels(New York City : Association for Computing Machinery, 2016) Müller, Eric; Otto, Christian; Ewerth, RalphSome recent approaches for character identification in movies and TV broadcasts are realized in a semi-supervised manner by assigning transcripts and/or subtitles to the speakers. However, the labels obtained in this way achieve only an accuracy of 80% - 90% and the number of training examples for the different actors is unevenly distributed. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for person identification in video by correcting and extending the training data with reliable predictions to reduce the number of annotation errors. Furthermore, the intra-class diversity of rarely speaking characters is enhanced. To address the imbalance of training data per person, we suggest two complementary prediction scores. These scores are also used to recognize whether or not a face track belongs to a (supporting) character whose identity does not appear in the transcript etc. Experimental results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach, outperforming the current state of the art.
- ItemFuture heat stress to reduce people’s purchasing power(San Francisco, Ca. : PLOS, 2021) Kuhla, Kilian; Willner, Sven Norman; Otto, Christian; Wenz, Leonie; Levermann, AndersWith increasing carbon emissions rising temperatures are likely to impact our economies and societies profoundly. In particular, it has been shown that heat stress can strongly reduce labor productivity. The resulting economic perturbations can propagate along the global supply network. Here we show, using numerical simulations, that output losses due to heat stress alone are expected to increase by about 24% within the next 20 years, if no additional adaptation measures are taken. The subsequent market response with rising prices and supply shortages strongly reduces the consumers’ purchasing power in almost all countries including the US and Europe with particularly strong effects in India, Brazil, and Indonesia. As a consequence, the producing sectors in many regions temporarily benefit from higher selling prices while decreasing their production in quantity, whereas other countries suffer losses within their entire national economy. Our results stress that, even though climate shocks may stimulate economic activity in some regions and some sectors, their unpredictability exerts increasing pressure on people’s livelihood.
- ItemClimate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2021) Sauer, Inga J.; Reese, Ronja; Otto, Christian; Geiger, Tobias; Willner, Sven N.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Bresch, David N.; Frieler, KatjaClimate change affects precipitation patterns. Here, we investigate whether its signals are already detectable in reported river flood damages. We develop an empirical model to reconstruct observed damages and quantify the contributions of climate and socio-economic drivers to observed trends. We show that, on the level of nine world regions, trends in damages are dominated by increasing exposure and modulated by changes in vulnerability, while climate-induced trends are comparably small and mostly statistically insignificant, with the exception of South & Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Asia. However, when disaggregating the world regions into subregions based on river-basins with homogenous historical discharge trends, climate contributions to damages become statistically significant globally, in Asia and Latin America. In most regions, we find monotonous climate-induced damage trends but more years of observations would be needed to distinguish between the impacts of anthropogenic climate forcing and multidecadal oscillations.
- ItemHuman displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geophysical Society, 2023) Mester, Benedikt; Vogt, Thomas; Bryant, Seth; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja; Schewe, JacobExtreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, often trigger population displacement. The frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are affected by anthropogenic climate change. However, the effect of historical climate change on displacement risk has so far not been quantified. Here, we show how displacement can be partially attributed to climate change using the example of the 2019 Tropical Cyclone Idai in Mozambique. We estimate the population exposed to high water levels following Idai's landfall using a combination of a 2D hydrodynamical storm surge model and a flood depth estimation algorithm to determine inland flood depths from remote sensing images, factual (climate change) and counterfactual (no climate change) mean sea level, and maximum wind speed conditions. Our main estimates indicate that climate change has increased displacement risk from this event by approximately 12 600-14 900 additional displaced persons, corresponding to about 2.7 % to 3.2 % of the observed displacements. The isolated effect of wind speed intensification is double that of sea level rise. These results are subject to important uncertainties related to both data and modeling assumptions, and we perform multiple sensitivity experiments to assess the range of uncertainty where possible. Besides highlighting the significant effects on humanitarian conditions already imparted by climate change, our study provides a blueprint for event-based displacement attribution.
- ItemCorrigendum: The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices (2017 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 054005)(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2018) Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja[no abstract available]
- ItemEconomic losses from hurricanes cannot be nationally offset under unabated warming(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2022) Middelanis, Robin; Willner, Sven N; Otto, Christian; Levermann, AndersTropical cyclones range among the costliest of all meteorological events worldwide and planetary scale warming provides more energy and moisture to these storms. Modelling the national and global economic repercussions of 2017’s Hurricane Harvey, we find a qualitative change in the global economic response in an increasingly warmer world. While the United States were able to balance regional production failures by the original 2017 hurricane, this option becomes less viable under future warming. In our simulations of over 7000 regional economic sectors with more than 1.8 million supply chain connections, the US are not able to offset the losses by use of national efforts with intensifying hurricanes under unabated warming. At a certain warming level other countries have to step in to supply the necessary goods for production, which gives US economic sectors a competitive disadvantage. In the highly localized mining and quarrying sector—which here also comprises the oil and gas production industry—this disadvantage emerges already with the original Hurricane Harvey and intensifies under warming. Eventually, also other regions reach their limit of what they can offset. While we chose the example of a specific hurricane impacting a specific region, the mechanism is likely applicable to other climate-related events in other regions and other sectors. It is thus likely that the regional economic sectors that are best adapted to climate change gain significant advantage over their competitors under future warming.
- ItemMore people too poor to move: divergent effects of climate change on global migration patterns(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2023) Rikani, Albano; Otto, Christian; Levermann, Anders; Schewe, JacobThe observed temperature increase due to anthropogenic carbon emissions has impacted economies worldwide. National income levels in origin and destination countries influence international migration. Emigration is relatively low not only from high income countries but also from very poor regions, which is explained in current migration theory by credit constraints and lower average education levels, among other reasons. These relationships suggest a potential non-linear, indirect effect of climate change on migration through this indirect channel. Here we explore this effect through a counterfactual analysis using observational data and a simple model of migration. We show that a world without climate change would have seen less migration during the past 30 years, but that this effect is strongly reduced due to inhibited mobility. Our framework suggests that migration within the Global South has been strongly reduced because these countries have seen less economic growth than they would have experienced without climate change. Importantly, climate change has impacted international migration in the richer and poorer parts of the world very differently. In the future, climate change may keep increasing global migration as it slows down countries’ transition across the middle-income range associated with the highest emigration rates.
- ItemUnderstanding image-text relations and news values for multimodal news analysis(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2023) Cheema, Gullal S.; Hakimov, Sherzod; Müller-Budack, Eric; Otto, Christian; Bateman, John A.; Ewerth, RalphThe analysis of news dissemination is of utmost importance since the credibility of information and the identification of disinformation and misinformation affect society as a whole. Given the large amounts of news data published daily on the Web, the empirical analysis of news with regard to research questions and the detection of problematic news content on the Web require computational methods that work at scale. Today's online news are typically disseminated in a multimodal form, including various presentation modalities such as text, image, audio, and video. Recent developments in multimodal machine learning now make it possible to capture basic “descriptive” relations between modalities–such as correspondences between words and phrases, on the one hand, and corresponding visual depictions of the verbally expressed information on the other. Although such advances have enabled tremendous progress in tasks like image captioning, text-to-image generation and visual question answering, in domains such as news dissemination, there is a need to go further. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework for the computational analysis of multimodal news. We motivate a set of more complex image-text relations as well as multimodal news values based on real examples of news reports and consider their realization by computational approaches. To this end, we provide (a) an overview of existing literature from semiotics where detailed proposals have been made for taxonomies covering diverse image-text relations generalisable to any domain; (b) an overview of computational work that derives models of image-text relations from data; and (c) an overview of a particular class of news-centric attributes developed in journalism studies called news values. The result is a novel framework for multimodal news analysis that closes existing gaps in previous work while maintaining and combining the strengths of those accounts. We assess and discuss the elements of the framework with real-world examples and use cases, setting out research directions at the intersection of multimodal learning, multimodal analytics and computational social sciences that can benefit from our approach.
- ItemThe role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2017) Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leo; Kriegler, Elmar; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, AlexanderIdentifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply–demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends. Even the most recent price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11 can be explained by additionally accounting for documented changes in countries' trade policies and storage strategies, without the need for external drivers such as oil prices or speculation across different commodity or stock markets. This underlines the critical sensitivity of global prices to fluctuations in production. The consistent inclusion of storage into a dynamic supply-demand model closes an important gap when it comes to exploring potential responses to future crop yield variability under climate and land-use change.
- ItemThe Search as Learning Spaceship: Toward a Comprehensive Model of Psychological and Technological Facets of Search as Learning(Lausanne : Frontiers Research Foundation, 2022) von Hoyer, Johannes; Hoppe, Anett; Kammerer, Yvonne; Otto, Christian; Pardi, Georg; Rokicki, Markus; Yu, Ran; Dietze, Stefan; Ewerth, Ralph; Holtz, PeterUsing a Web search engine is one of today’s most frequent activities. Exploratory search activities which are carried out in order to gain knowledge are conceptualized and denoted as Search as Learning (SAL). In this paper, we introduce a novel framework model which incorporates the perspective of both psychology and computer science to describe the search as learning process by reviewing recent literature. The main entities of the model are the learner who is surrounded by a specific learning context, the interface that mediates between the learner and the information environment, the information retrieval (IR) backend which manages the processes between the interface and the set of Web resources, that is, the collective Web knowledge represented in resources of different modalities. At first, we provide an overview of the current state of the art with regard to the five main entities of our model, before we outline areas of future research to improve our understanding of search as learning processes.