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- ItemSocial tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth's climate by 2050(2020) Otto, Ilona M.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Cremades, Roger; Bhowmik, Avit; Hewitt, Richard J.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rockström, Johan; Allerberger, Franziska; McCaffrey, Mark; Doe, Sylvanus S.P.; Lenferna, Alex; Morán, Nerea; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schellnhuber, Hans JoachimSafely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth's climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation.
- ItemIdentifying a Safe and Just Corridor for People and the Planet(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley-Blackwell, 2021) Rockström, Johan; Gupta, Joyeeta; Lenton, Timothy M.; Qin, Dahe; Lade, Steven J.; Abrams, Jesse F.; Jacobson, Lisa; Rocha, Juan C.; Zimm, Caroline; Bai, Xuemei; Bala, Govindasamy; Bringezu, Stefan; Broadgate, Wendy; Bunn, Stuart E.; DeClerck, Fabrice; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gong, Peng; Gordon, Chris; Kanie, Norichika; Liverman, Diana M.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Obura, David; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Verburg, Peter H.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Winkelmann, RicardaKeeping the Earth system in a stable and resilient state, to safeguard Earth's life support systems while ensuring that Earth's benefits, risks, and related responsibilities are equitably shared, constitutes the grand challenge for human development in the Anthropocene. Here, we describe a framework that the recently formed Earth Commission will use to define and quantify target ranges for a “safe and just corridor” that meets these goals. Although “safe” and “just” Earth system targets are interrelated, we see safe as primarily referring to a stable Earth system and just targets as being associated with meeting human needs and reducing exposure to risks. To align safe and just dimensions, we propose to address the equity dimensions of each safe target for Earth system regulating systems and processes. The more stringent of the safe or just target ranges then defines the corridor. Identifying levers of social transformation aimed at meeting the safe and just targets and challenges associated with translating the corridor to actors at multiple scales present scope for future work.
- ItemTen new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan(Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2021) Pihl, Erik; Alfredsson, Eva; Bengtsson, Magnus; Bowen, Kathryn J.; Cástan Broto, Vanesa; Chou, Kuei Tien; Cleugh, Helen; Ebi, Kristie; Edwards, Clea M.; Fisher, Eleanor; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Godoy-Faúndez, Alex; Gupta, Mukesh; Harrington, Alexandra R.; Hayes, Katie; Hayward, Bronwyn M.; Hebden, Sophie R.; Hickmann, Thomas; Hugelius, Gustaf; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jackson, Robert B.; Keenan, Trevor F.; Lambino, Ria A.; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Malmaeus, Mikael; McDonald, Robert I.; McMichael, Celia; Miller, Clark A.; Muratori, Matteo; Nagabhatla, Nidhi; Nagendra, Harini; Passarello, Cristian; Penuelas, Josep; Pongratz, Julia; Rockström, Johan; Romero-Lankao, Patricia; Roy, Joyashree; Scaife, Adam A.; Schlosser, Peter; Schuur, Edward; Scobie, Michelle; Sherwood, Steven C.; Sioen, Giles B.; Skovgaard, Jakob; Sobenes Obregon, Edgardo A.; Sonntag, Sebastian; Spangenberg, Joachim H.; Spijkers, Otto; Srivastava, Leena; Stammer, Detlef B.; Torres, Pedro H. C.; Turetsky, Merritt R.; Ukkola, Anna M.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Voigt, Christina; Wannous, Chadia; Zelinka, Mark D.Non-technical summary: We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary: A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost-benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- A nd long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary: Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science. Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press.