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- ItemClimate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Allen, Robert J.; Turnock, Steven; Nabat, Pierre; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike; Olivié, Dirk; Oshima, Naga; Michou, Martine; Wu, Tongwen; Zhang, Jie; Takemura, Toshihiko; Schulz, Michael; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Bauer, Susanne E.; Emmons, Louisa; Horowitz, Larry; Naik, Vaishali; van Noije, Twan; Bergman, Tommi; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Zanis, Prodromos; Tegen, Ina; Westervelt, Daniel M.; Le Sager, Philippe; Good, Peter; Shim, Sungbo; O’Connor, Fiona; Akritidis, Dimitris; Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Deushi, Makoto; Sentman, Lori T.; John, Jasmin G.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Collins, William J.It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015-2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with weak (SSP3-7.0) versus strong (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2:5) and ozone (O3) decrease by 2:20:32 ugm3 and 4:60:88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015-2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95% confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0:250:12K and 0:030:012mmd1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0:660:20K and 0:030:02mmd1), south Asia (0:470:16K and 0:170:09mmd1), and east Asia (0:460:20K and 0:150:06mmd1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0:590:36K and 0:040:02mmd1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals. © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
- ItemHow the extreme 2019-2020 Australian wildfires affected global circulation and adjustments(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2023) Senf, Fabian; Heinold, Bernd; Kubin, Anne; Müller, Jason; Schrödner, Roland; Tegen, InaWildfires are a significant source of absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere. Extreme fires in particular, such as those during the 2019-2020 Australian wildfire season (Black Summer fires), can have considerable large-scale effects. In this context, the climate impact of extreme wildfires unfolds not only because of the emitted carbon dioxide but also due to smoke aerosol released up to an altitude of 17ĝ€¯km. The overall aerosol effects depend on a variety of factors, such as the amount emitted, the injection height, and the composition of the burned material, and is therefore subject to considerable uncertainty. In the present study, we address the global impact caused by the exceptionally strong and high-reaching smoke emissions from the Australian wildfires using simulations with a global aerosol-climate model. We show that the absorption of solar radiation by the black carbon contained in the emitted smoke led to a shortwave radiative forcing of more than +5ĝ€¯Wm-2 in the southern mid-latitudes of the lower stratosphere. Subsequent adjustment processes in the stratosphere slowed down the diabatically driven meridional circulation, thus redistributing the heating perturbation on a global scale. As a result of these stratospheric adjustments, a positive temperature perturbation developed in both hemispheres, leading to additional longwave radiation emitted back to space. According to the model results, this adjustment occurred in the stratosphere within the first 2 months after the event. At the top of the atmosphere (TOA), the net effective radiative forcing (ERF) averaged over the Southern Hemisphere was initially dominated by the instantaneous positive radiative forcing of about +0.5ĝ€¯Wm-2, for which the positive sign resulted mainly from the presence of clouds above the Southern Ocean. The longwave adjustments led to a compensation of the initially net positive TOA ERF, which is seen in the Southern Hemisphere, the tropics, and the northern mid-latitudes. The simulated changes in the lower stratosphere also affected the upper troposphere through a thermodynamic downward coupling. Subsequently, increased temperatures were also obtained in the upper troposphere, causing a global decrease in relative humidity, cirrus amount, and the ice water path of about 0.2ĝ€¯%. As a result, surface precipitation also decreased by a similar amount, which was accompanied by a weakening of the tropospheric circulation due to the given energetic constraints. In general, it appears that the radiative effects of smoke from single extreme wildfire events can lead to global impacts that affect the interplay of tropospheric and stratospheric budgets in complex ways. This emphasizes that future changes in extreme wildfires need to be included in projections of aerosol radiative forcing.
- ItemDetection and attribution of aerosol-cloud interactions in large-domain large-eddy simulations with the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic model(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Costa-Surós, Montserrat; Sourdeval, Odran; Acquistapace, Claudia; Baars, Holger; Carbajal Henken, Cintia; Genz, Christa; Hesemann, Jonas; Jimenez, Cristofer; König, Marcel; Kretzschmar, Jan; Madenach, Nils; Meyer, Catrin I.; Schrödner, Roland; Seifert, Patric; Senf, Fabian; Brueck, Matthias; Cioni, Guido; Engels, Jan Frederik; Fieg, Kerstin; Gorges, Ksenia; Heinze, Rieke; Kumar Siligam, Pavan; Burkhardt, Ulrike; Crewell, Susanne; Hoose, Corinna; Seifert, Axel; Tegen, Ina; Quaas, JohannesClouds and aerosols contribute the largest uncertainty to current estimates and interpretations of the Earth's changing energy budget. Here we use a new-generation large-domain large-eddy model, ICON-LEM (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic Large Eddy Model), to simulate the response of clouds to realistic anthropogenic perturbations in aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The novelty compared to previous studies is that (i) the LEM is run in weather prediction mode and with fully interactive land surface over a large domain and (ii) a large range of data from various sources are used for the detection and attribution. The aerosol perturbation was chosen as peak-aerosol conditions over Europe in 1985, with more than fivefold more sulfate than in 2013. Observational data from various satellite and ground-based remote sensing instruments are used, aiming at the detection and attribution of this response. The simulation was run for a selected day (2 May 2013) in which a large variety of cloud regimes was present over the selected domain of central Europe. It is first demonstrated that the aerosol fields used in the model are consistent with corresponding satellite aerosol optical depth retrievals for both 1985 (perturbed) and 2013 (reference) conditions. In comparison to retrievals from groundbased lidar for 2013, CCN profiles for the reference conditions were consistent with the observations, while the ones for the 1985 conditions were not. Similarly, the detection and attribution process was successful for droplet number concentrations: the ones simulated for the 2013 conditions were consistent with satellite as well as new ground-based lidar retrievals, while the ones for the 1985 conditions were outside the observational range. For other cloud quantities, including cloud fraction, liquid water path, cloud base altitude and cloud lifetime, the aerosol response was small compared to their natural vari ability. Also, large uncertainties in satellite and ground-based observations make the detection and attribution difficult for these quantities. An exception to this is the fact that at a large liquid water path value (LWP > 200 g m-2), the control simulation matches the observations, while the perturbed one shows an LWP which is too large. The model simulations allowed for quantifying the radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions, as well as the adjustments to this forcing. The latter were small compared to the variability and showed overall a small positive radiative effect. The overall effective radiative forcing (ERF) due to aerosol-cloud interactions (ERFaci) in the simulation was dominated thus by the Twomey effect and yielded for this day, region and aerosol perturbation-2:6 W m-2. Using general circulation models to scale this to a global-mean present-day vs. pre-industrial ERFaci yields a global ERFaci of-0:8 W m-2 © 2020 Author(s).
- ItemEstimation of cloud condensation nuclei number concentrations and comparison to in situ and lidar observations during the HOPE experiments(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Genz, Christa; Schrödner, Roland; Heinold, Bernd; Henning, Silvia; Baars, Holger; Spindler, Gerald; Tegen, InaAtmospheric aerosol particles are the precondition for the formation of cloud droplets and therefore have large influence on the microphysical and radiative properties of clouds. In this work, four different methods to derive or measure number concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) were analyzed and compared for presentday aerosol conditions: (i) a model parameterization based on simulated particle concentrations, (ii) the same parameterization based on gravimetrical particle measurements, (iii) direct CCN measurements with a CCN counter, and (iv) lidarderived and in situ measured vertical CCN profiles. In order to allow for sensitivity studies of the anthropogenic impact, a scenario to estimate the maximum CCN concentration under peak aerosol conditions of the mid-1980s in Europe was developed as well. In general, the simulations are in good agreement with the observations. At ground level, average values between 0.7 and 1:5 × 109 CCNm-3 at a supersaturation of 0.2 % were found with the different methods under present-day conditions. The discrimination of the chemical species revealed an almost equal contribution of ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate to the total number of CCN for present-day conditions. This was not the case for the peak aerosol scenario, in which it was assumed that no ammonium nitrate was formed while large amounts of sulfate were present, consuming all available ammonia during ammonium sulfate formation. The CCN number concentration at five different supersaturation values has been compared to the measurements. The discrepancies between model and in situ observations were lowest for the lowest (0.1 %) and highest supersaturations (0.7 %). For supersaturations between 0.3 % and 0.5 %, the model overestimated the potentially activated particle fraction by around 30 %. By comparing the simulation with observed profiles, the vertical distribution of the CCN concentration was found to be overestimated by up to a factor of 2 in the boundary layer. The analysis of the modern (year 2013) and the peak aerosol scenario (expected to be representative of the mid-1980s over Europe) resulted in a scaling factor, which was defined as the quotient of the average vertical profile of the peak aerosol and present-day CCN concentration. This factor was found to be around 2 close to the ground, increasing to around 3.5 between 2 and 5 km and approaching 1 (i.e., no difference between present-day and peak aerosol conditions) with further increasing height. © 2020 Author(s).