2012, Haustein, K., Pérez, C., Baldasano, J.M., Jorba, O., Basart, S., Miller, R.L., Janjic, Z., Black, T., Nickovic, S., Todd, M.C., Washington, R., Müller, D., Tesche, M., Weinzierl, B., Esselborn, M., Schladitz, A.

The new NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. It is an online model in which the dust aerosol dynamics and physics are solved at each model time step. The companion paper (Pérez et al., 2011) develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6–0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1) in 2006 and the Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx) in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements. All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational horizontal resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob that occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical dust distribution related to the representation of the mixing height in the atmospheric part of the model. For the BoDEx episode, we found the diurnal temperature cycle to be strongly dependant on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The low level jet (LLJ) and the dust AOD over the Bodélé are well reproduced. The remaining negative AOD bias (due to underestimated surface wind speeds) can be substantially reduced by decreasing the threshold friction velocity in the model.

2017, James, R., Washington, R., Schleussner, C.-F., Rogelj, J., Conway, D.

The Paris Agreement long-term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This article reviews alternative approaches for identifying regional climate signals associated with global temperature limits, and evaluates the extent to which they constitute a sound basis for impacts analysis. Four methods are outlined, including comparing data from different greenhouse gas scenarios, sub-selecting climate models based on global temperature response, pattern scaling, and extracting anomalies at the time of each global temperature increment. These methods have rarely been applied to compare 2°C with 1.5°C, but some demonstrate potential avenues for useful research. Nevertheless, there are methodological challenges associated with the use of existing climate model experiments, which are generally designed to model responses to different levels of greenhouse gas forcing, rather than to model climate responses to a specific level of forcing that targets a given level of global temperature change. Novel approaches may be required to address policy questions, in particular: to differentiate between half degree warming increments while accounting for different sources of uncertainty; to examine mechanisms of regional climate change including the potential for nonlinear responses; and to explore the relevance of time-lagged processes in the climate system and declining emissions, and the resulting sensitivity to alternative mitigation pathways. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e457. doi: 10.1002/wcc.457. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

2015, Ryder, C.L., McQuaid, J.B., Flamant, C., Rosenberg, P.D., Washington, R., Brindley, H.E., Highwood, E.J., Marsham, J.H., Parker, D.J., Todd, M.C., Banks, J.R., Brooke, J.K., Engelstaedter, S., Estelles, V., Formenti, P., Garcia-Carreras, L., Kocha, C., Marenco, F., Sodemann, H., Allen, C.J.T., Bourdon, A., Bart, M., Cavazos-Guerra, C., Chevaillier, S., Crosier, J., Darbyshire, E., Dean, A.R., Dorsey, J.R., Kent, J., O'Sullivan, D., Schepanski, K., Szpek, K., Trembath, J., Woolley, A.

The Fennec climate programme aims to improve understanding of the Saharan climate system through a synergy of observations and modelling. We present a description of the Fennec airborne observations during 2011 and 2012 over the remote Sahara (Mauritania and Mali) and the advances in the understanding of mineral dust and boundary layer processes they have provided. Aircraft instrumentation aboard the UK FAAM BAe146 and French SAFIRE (Service des Avions Français Instrumentés pour la Recherche en Environnement) Falcon 20 is described, with specific focus on instrumentation specially developed for and relevant to Saharan meteorology and dust. Flight locations, aims and associated meteorology are described. Examples and applications of aircraft measurements from the Fennec flights are presented, highlighting new scientific results delivered using a synergy of different instruments and aircraft. These include (1) the first airborne measurement of dust particles sizes of up to 300 microns and associated dust fluxes in the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL), (2) dust uplift from the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet before becoming visible in SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible Infra-Red Imager) satellite imagery, (3) vertical profiles of the unique vertical structure of turbulent fluxes in the SABL, (4) in situ observations of processes in SABL clouds showing dust acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) at −15 °C, (5) dual-aircraft observations of the SABL dynamics, thermodynamics and composition in the Saharan heat low region (SHL), (6) airborne observations of a dust storm associated with a cold pool (haboob) issued from deep convection over the Atlas Mountains, (7) the first airborne chemical composition measurements of dust in the SHL region with differing composition, sources (determined using Lagrangian backward trajectory calculations) and absorption properties between 2011 and 2012, (8) coincident ozone and dust surface area measurements suggest coarser particles provide a route for ozone depletion, (9) discrepancies between airborne coarse-mode size distributions and AERONET (AERosol Robotic NETwork) sunphotometer retrievals under light dust loadings. These results provide insights into boundary layer and dust processes in the SHL region – a region of substantial global climatic importance.

2006, Tegen, I., Heinold, B., Todd, M., Helmert, J., Washington, R., Dubovik, O.

We present regional model simulations of the dust emission events during the Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx) that was carried out in February and March 2005 in Chad. A box model version of the dust emission model is used to test different input parameters for the emission model, and to compare the dust emissions computed with observed wind speeds to those calculated with wind speeds from the regional model simulation. While field observations indicate that dust production occurs via self-abrasion of saltating diatomite flakes in the Bodélé, the emission model based on the assumption of dust production by saltation and using observed surface wind speeds as input parameters reproduces observed dust optical thicknesses well. Although the peak wind speeds in the regional model underestimate the highest wind speeds occurring on 10–12 March 2005, the spatio-temporal evolution of the dust cloud can be reasonably well reproduced by this model. Dust aerosol interacts with solar and thermal radiation in the regional model; it is responsible for a decrease in maximum daytime temperatures by about 5 K at the beginning the dust storm on 10 March 2005. This direct radiative effect of dust aerosol accounts for about half of the measured temperature decrease compared to conditions on 8 March. Results from a global dust model suggest that the dust from the Bodélé is an important contributor to dust crossing the African Savannah region towards the Gulf of Guinea and the equatorial Atlantic, where it can contribute up to 40% to the dust optical thickness.